Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[ram376s] 19/5/2022 13:09

Pop up AHT . 300 nurses to train for GDR new game changer test .Multibagger possible . Anticipated news.

[disc0dave45] 19/5/2022 13:04

Good day hamLast retort as don't want to clog the thread up.Your integrity is clearly questionable given you've replied directly to my posting to you - some trick that if I was filtered "ages ago".Once again good luck :)

[disc0dave45] 19/5/2022 12:01

Good day ham,I've clearly touched a nerve!, but descending once again into a stalking troll only serves to confirm my views about you. If you can't accept an opposing view then you shouldn't be in this game (read post 8905).All the best with your "punts".

[hamhamham1] 19/5/2022 10:27

It's the general market affecting most stocks, thing is the last big taper tantrum was just a fight between the Fed and investors over interest rates to cool demand, this market is goosed through supply, who knows where this will end up?

[trt] 19/5/2022 10:05

Yes we could eventually see £24 at this rate !!!

[hamhamham1] 19/5/2022 08:25

£27 and £24 are main support levels.

[hamhamham1] 19/5/2022 07:38

Don't listen to discodave, he posted nearly 4,000 posts on Centrica board, shouting about their demise, oh how wrong, how very, very wrong.
Hilarious.

[trt] 18/5/2022 14:23

£35 here we come !!

[bracke] 16/5/2022 11:35

Good day disc0

I can only speak for myself when it come to 'predicting the future'. It depends how far into the future you are 'predicting' and what the 'prediction' is based on.

I don't attempt to 'predict' very far into the future. I am a short term trader and it's far easier to 'predict the future' on a short timeframe E.g. use of algos for high frequency trading.

I don't have access to algos or the means to apply them on a split second timeframe. I use the next best thing which is chart analysis. As I mentioned in a previous post I have spent years working on the chart analysis and trading learning pathway.

From my posts and charts you will have an idea of the method I use to analyse charts. I don't go into fine detail because it would take too long. For anyone interested in the fine detail there is plenty of information available on the internet.

As I have posted previously I don't 'predict' and neither do other proper chartists, we consider the probabilities based on the analysis.

Chartists and fundamentalists are not so different they both use data but as far as I am aware fundamentalists do not usually trade on a short timeframe basis.

So in short not prediction but probability.

[disc0dave45] 14/5/2022 18:16

Thanks brackeI assume you believe from a TA perspective that there is more downside to come but then you concur that predicting the future is impossible - I struggle with that concept, but respect your view.

[bracke] 14/5/2022 17:13

disc)

The pre Covid high is approx 9750.

"What level are you thinking for the NAS100"
==============================================

You will remember the previous posts we had about forecasting the future which we agreed was not possible.

Looking at previous large market falls there is a succession of 'waterfalls'. i.e down, retrace part up, down, retrace part up, etc. The markets are only part way through that process. I simply look at the price action and so far there has been nothing to suggest that the fall is over and that the market is about to recover.

There is no evidence that a base has been reached or that a 'V' recovery is under way.

On the chart the blue horizontal lines are opening gaps on the 'Cash' not yet filled. You will note there are three below Friday's close. There is no guarantee that they will be filled but it is surprising how often gaps opened many months earlier are targeted.

I will continue to monitor.

[disc0dave45] 14/5/2022 16:46

Good day Mr bDifficult to see where the NAS100 was pre covid, looks like around 9600 (sorry out & on phone), so that would be about 44% drop from its 52w high.As previously posted we simply don't know. I've seen some so called experts saying the worst is now baked in, with inflation falling next year and interest rates being cut again. Others predicting the world is going to end!.On a personal level I'm about 60% cash, got a list of high gross margin quality stocks and may start drip feeding in.....but am also concerned that there is more downside to come but probably not as much as your good self.What level are you thinking for the NAS100?, will make a note of it.Enjoy the sun :)

[bracke] 14/5/2022 16:02

Good day disc0

Below is the Weekly NAS 100

SP is at the 50% fib with the Weekly SMA 200 at the 61.8% fib

The purple line is the level just prior to Covid.

The pink line is the rising trend line.


Given war, inflation, and interest rate rises to come there is a high probability that at least one of the above levels is reached.

[disc0dave45] 14/5/2022 13:45

Good day Mr b

‘No doubt the markets will have relief rallies but they have not yet reached bottom’

Think you may well be right, but then again!. According to Bank of America there have been 19 bear markets in the last 140 years, the average price decline was 37% with an average duration of 289 days (which would be around October time so slogsweep, and the go away in May saying, could be the right strategy!).
As posted previously, when I’ve charted AHT against all indices for the past 52 weeks it appears to be following the Nasdaq (which I find strange). The Nasdaq has fallen about 28% below its 52w high, so possibly a 9% fall still to come to match the average of the 19 bear market trends. For AHT it’s already fallen circa 44% from its high to low, so has it bottomed or is another 9% fall on the cards?.
The truth is we simply don’t know!!

[bracke] 13/5/2022 12:21

Good day Slogsweep


No doubt the markets will have relief rallies but they have not yet reached bottom. Your thought of switching off the terminal whilst the market sorts itself out is a fair one.

[slogsweep] 13/5/2022 08:41

Bracke
Thanks for your interesting and comprehensive comment, I'm still trying to take it all in. I agree that the UK market is highly dependent on what goes on in the US. This is particularly true of dual listed stocks like AHT. While one would think that the London price of AHT would be enhanced by a weaker sterling selling by US investors in London before New York opens swamps that.

I had resolved to hold 25% cash and ride it out, now I'm 30% cash so have a bit of fire power to use but not yet. I might even switch my terminal off and enjoy the summer.

[bracke] 12/5/2022 18:07

XSPS far too exotic for a trader like me.

BTW I noticed AHT higher volume yesterday but a tight range suggests buyers were holding onto support at the 50% fib.

[disc0dave45] 12/5/2022 17:41

Ps that said I'm hedging my bets slightly with a small play on XSPS You'll love the 3 year chart - or maybe you won't :)

[disc0dave45] 12/5/2022 17:36

Good day Mr bI'll go with the CNN index as glass half full type of chap.....unlike yourself :)Got no more body parts to sell though unfortunately, want to buy a dog?

[bracke] 12/5/2022 17:22

Good day disc0

The VIX which is the main index for fear although moving higher is not yet at extreme fear which is required to indicate the market bottom is reached. So more fear required!

VIX WEEKLY

[disc0dave45] 12/5/2022 16:40

Good day Mr bInterestingly (or not!) the CNN fear and greed index is now at "extreme fear" and a low of 7, it was 12 during the 2008 financial crash.HTTPS://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedAccording to investopedia: 'History shows that the fear and greed index has often been a reliable indicator of a turn in equity markets.'