Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[slogsweep] 12/5/2022 10:28

bracke

I used to use charts and was quite successful but found that it could lead to over trading as markets got more volatile. One down side of success is that I have too many holdings to be able to react quickly to a general sell off, so apart from the odd special speculative punt I tend to stick with companies that have served me well in the past and ride out the ups and down, just creaming off enough profit to live comfortably.

AHT is typical of the companies I like ( first bought at 44p 2004), I keep a substantial core holding and sell a few if its high and buy more if I think its too low. Unfortunately I thought 48 was the low this time.

I have made most money on small growth companies and hold cash for safety as I'm not very good at picking 'safe' investments even the experts seem to struggle as my investment trust holdings are showing at the moment. I have given up looking for a 'buy and hold for ever' investment but still have a few in the portfolio, RKT (RB. when I bought it), WEIR which I have held for more than 20 years.

Small growth shares like BOO, JD. PHTM and a load which are no longer quoted have their day in the sun then fade away and I found charts useful in getting me out in time.

Currently I still hold JDG, SDI,Cnic,EQLS,KAPE,Shoe and a few more which I think should have further to run yet but what do I know? In these times nothing surprises me even RCH still falling on a forward PE of 4.

Having been nearly wiped out in 2000 and 2002 I had learned by 2009 - if you are going to panic , panic early, and save something to fight another day. This time I'm not sure, I raised cash last summer and resolved to ride it out reasoning that if is armageddon then cash will be as useless as shares so stock up with tinned food.

If not it will all blow over in a year or two and hopefully most of the companies I hold will survive and prosper, to provide my heirs with an inheritance. I should already have enough put by for living expenses to see me out.

[disc0dave45] 11/5/2022 14:27

At least it was below the previous month, thus the prediction of some that it's peaked holds true......for the time being!

[bracke] 11/5/2022 13:31

CPI Actual 8.3%.

[roguetraderuk] 11/5/2022 13:21

yes rbc raises but doesnt have much conviction on it being a low given increased volatility. they say start acculumating, recognising that their timing might be imperfect.

[bracke] 11/5/2022 12:53

Good day disc0

Consensus is for a drop to 8.1% from 8.5%.

[disc0dave45] 11/5/2022 12:31

Guess US inflation data for April will determine the next move.

[disc0dave45] 11/5/2022 10:54

RBC Capital Markets upgrade AHT to 'outperform'

[bracke] 10/5/2022 14:49

LOL! Perish the thought.

[fenners66] 10/5/2022 14:48

You don't want them to lie, surely bracke ?

[bracke] 10/5/2022 14:42

Good day Slogsweep

During your 50 years of investing what method of deciding your investing have you found works best?....and don't say pin method!

[disc0dave45] 10/5/2022 13:38

brackeDon't disagree.Slogsweep has put it better than I can.

[bracke] 10/5/2022 13:28

disc0

"just react to market conditions"
=================================

Exactly what chartists do. Market conditions are reflected in the chart and chartists use their chosen indicators to determine their trades.


Good day fenners

Agree.

[fenners66] 10/5/2022 12:40

"high frequency trading using algorithms"

Can be self fulfilling predictors though.

If the majority (large players) of the market uses similarly programmed algo's they will trade similarly.

Since they buy and sell more volume than the rest of us - it seems to me they can work accidentally maybe in concert and thus move prices.

Its my guess they are programmed to work in the same way as chartists and thus when you get the charts worked out and trade in a similar way they end up moving the market for you.

More algo trades means more likelihood charting works.

[disc0dave45] 10/5/2022 11:53

Good day Mr bDo you consider high frequency trading using algorithms as 'educated guesswork'?NoThey don't predict the future, just react to market conditions (as programmed by a human being!) and make large trades in fractions of a second.

[bracke] 10/5/2022 11:01

Good day disco

Forget about predicting the future. The thought that chartists or fundamentalists can predict the future is ridiculous, they can't. What they can do is use data to improve their analysis and hence improve the probability of a successful result.

Do you consider high frequency trading using algorithms as 'educated guesswork'?

[slogsweep] 10/5/2022 08:00

the biggest mistake you can make is to believe you can predict the future. I've been investing for 50 years and still can't do it

[disc0dave45] 09/5/2022 21:12

Mr bTrying to predict the future is always going to be "educated guesswork" is it not, no matter what info, process, technique, witchcraft, etc. you use......unless you are a time traveller!Mistake - "an act or judgement that is misguided or wrong."If only we knew the future eh, we wouldn't make any mistakes and we'd all be millionaires - boring! lol

[bracke] 09/5/2022 19:56

disc0

When I became serious about trading I looked at the various methods of forecasting when to buy and when to sell. I came to the conclusion that charts provided the best method certainly for shorter term trading and also for medium/longer term.

Over the years I have made all the mistakes more than once, such is the plight of the self taught trader. I still make mistakes but fewer of them and know what to do when I have.

"educated guess work"
====================

To some degree yes it is but charts are not based on a forecast they are the 'coal face' the here and the now. Learning how to use charts for profit is not a quick job. For the self taught a minimum of 5 years but more realistically 7-8. Most are not prepared to spend that amount of time to learn and gain experience.

I note that AHT has managed to pull back to the 50% fib which indicates there is some support at that level. I suspect that the US overnight futures will determine if the support continues or the drop continues tomorrow.

[disc0dave45] 09/5/2022 19:24

brackeDon't disagree.What else can we go on?.Your TA is no different, it's all educated guess work (some would argue it's not even that!). But unlike some posters you support your TA, as I've always tried to do with what I post.

[bracke] 09/5/2022 18:57

disc0

Forecasts are based on current plus a view of what is expected for the future.
In 'normal' times, barring 'black swans', forecasts can provide a fairly accurate assessment of what actually occurs. Unfortunately the current circumstances are far from normal and trying to forecast events which are totally outside of a company's control is fraught with unknowns.

For instance the range that US interest rates will rise to I have seen so far is
3%-10%. These forecasts are from 'experts'.

Those who are at the low end say that the FED will not be able to go any higher otherwise it will result in a recession. Those on the high side say that higher rates will be necessary to bring inflation under control.

How is it possible to forecast with any accuracy! Perhaps instead of forecasts they should be termed 'guesstimates' i.e an estimate based on a mixture of guesswork and calculation.

[disc0dave45] 09/5/2022 18:35

This article (Dec 2021) quotes FTSE100 earnings growth of 8% for 2022, so I wasn't too far out.HTTPS://www.ajbell.co.uk/news/why-ftse-100-still-has-chance-challenge-its-all-time-high-2022

[disc0dave45] 09/5/2022 18:08

Ps meant to add. The US Rental & Leasing Services industry's average forecast earnings growth rate 2022 is 14.06%.

[disc0dave45] 09/5/2022 17:54

Their growth forecasts (as per investors presentation to FY24):Organic growth 5% pa Via acquisitions 4%pa.As someone said, Fx tailwind circa 7% (IMO more like 10%)Total eps growth (with no BB) circa +16% (someone else can add how much they think from BB)The FTSE100 2022 forecast pbt (£billion) is 15k, which if my sums are correct (someone can check) is 7.5% growth as of todays the market cap of the indices is 2 trillion (I'm assuming profit correlates with company value - someone will no doubt disagree). The historical average PE for the FTSE100 is 20x, it's currently on a PE of 13.4x, for forecast growth less than half of what AHT may achieve (excluding fx to compensate for increased inflation it's still higher growth than the index whose average PE is 20x).IMO based on the above data, AHT should be rated a lot more than 15x earnings, at least 20x minimum. At 15x (forecast eps this FY of 250p, which is growth of 50% on last FY) fair value is only 1% below todays closing price. How much will the market overshoot?Would prefer to see some some fundamental data to justify why £25, a further 33% reduction, is fair value.

[bracke] 09/5/2022 13:47

LOL! Coward.....but understandable.

Sticking purely to the technicals.

If the 50% fib fails to support there is an open gap to fill at 3362 and thereafter the 61.8% fib at 3139.