Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 09/5/2022 12:05

Good day Mr bThe FTSE 100 and the 250 are already below pre pandemic levels.As for AHT, that's too stock specific to discuss on here! :)

[disc0dave45] 09/5/2022 11:49

fennersNot getting into this as we've debated all of this before.

[bracke] 09/5/2022 11:44

Good day disc0 & fenners

The markets are undergoing a reset following the money pumping and low interest rate climate that has existed for several years. The bigger the boom the bigger the bust.

Perhaps in order to bring normality (or what passes for it) to the markets it is necessary to return to pre Covid levels and restart from there. 'IF' AHT is to return to the pre Covid level that would be in the region of 2800.

AHT - The share price has this morning dropped through the 50% fib and in doing so filled a gap at 3766 from February 2021.

When the markets eventually find the base a period on consolidation is likely during which inflation is brought under control and recession is hopefully avoided. In any event money pumping and low interest rates appear to be off the agenda for the time being!

AHT DAILY

[fenners66] 09/5/2022 11:36

disco - I'm not the person to ask , stock specific

as I said before in general I like to see PE of 10x or less , but if it has genuine growth prospects then 15x could be reasonable.

Has AHT got genuine growth prospects ?
Well it has an EPS 7% gain from FX to come
it has a gain EPS from share buybacks
It can continue to invest free cash flow on bolt on acquisitions.

But it needs the US construction market to continue to grow - it should, they have a huge amount of infrastructure to get done, but they have had that problem for a long time already.

If the US continue to repatriate global production they will need even more infrastructure and plant hire so the growth should be there.


A caveat re EPS above - I think that an EPS gain from BB counts for nothing in terms of calling this a growth share. To get a higher multiple the Business has to grow not some calculated box ticking ratio.

However there is no reason why final dividend cannot be 50p+ based on the above so at least they can pay holders to wait ....

[disc0dave45] 09/5/2022 10:55

fennersIMO they will soon push it through if a recession is on the cards.What rating would you buy?

[fenners66] 09/5/2022 09:37

disco - Biden looks a lame duck over the infrastructure bill.
The DEMS are more intent on self destruction by disagreeing with each other in order to ensure nothing at all gets done.
If they cannot get anything done when they have both houses and the presidency then they show there is no point in them being in power hence the kicking they will get at the mid-terms then nothing will get done over the following 2 years.
Seems to me they have a couple of months (most) to wake up and smell the coffee.

As far as AHT going down to 13-15x that takes us back to my thoughts weeks ago on what a rating for companies should be...

[trt] 09/5/2022 08:39

Could see £30 if it drops below £35.

[disc0dave45] 08/5/2022 19:53

Good day Mr bThis is one occasion where I may forget my stop loss, they are usually about 80% or so the right thing to apply but I believe in AHT's instance it's not.AHT has been closely following the Nasdaq (1 year chart), not the Dow or any of the FTSE indices, yet it's not an overly rated stock (or tech), it's got a 2022 forecast PE of 15x, and a 2023 PE of only 13x. IMO it has sufficient gross margins and pricing power to reduce any inflationary impacts to their bottom line and I'm sure (hopeful) that Bidens infrastructure bill will get approval at sone point if the US shows any signs of going into a recession........so I may average down instead, or simply just hang in there.All the best

[bracke] 08/5/2022 15:13

Good day disc0

Maybe but only a maybe there is the possibility of a retrace from the 50% fib. Unfortunately the outlook suggests it would only be a retrace and the drop is likely to continue.

Sorry to be so negative. Hopefully I am wrong.

[disc0dave45] 06/5/2022 18:46

Thanks bracke for your thoughts.It's getting close to my stop loss now and I'm obviously hoping it's also getting close to bottom, although I fear that the former may be hit before the latter.

[bracke] 06/5/2022 10:48

A few weeks ago I posted that the share price appeared to be heading for the RSI 'Blue Line' (45.86) on the monthly chart.....It has arrived. The attempt to hold at the 4100 zone has failed and the drop is continuing

A ray of hope is that the share price has nearly completed a 50% retrace back to the Covid low from the all time high. This is often a major reversal point but watch for a 'zoom' through that level.
(Zoom = A long candle that goes straight through a support/resistance zone.)

AHT MONTHLY

[fenners66] 06/5/2022 10:03

£/$ now 7.5% lower than recently
Just keep earning more US $....

[trt] 06/5/2022 08:55

Could see £35 now.

[bracke] 05/5/2022 19:20

disco

I had noted that URI fall from the high was a fair amount less than AHT. Maybe the reason is that the URI % rise from the covid low to the high is a lot less than AHT's.

[disc0dave45] 05/5/2022 18:29

Good day Mr bCould well be, strange times.Just looking at the URI price just before C19 hit and it's up 88% to then. AHT on the other hand is only up around 50%.

[bracke] 05/5/2022 16:23

Good day disco

It's still managing to cling on to the 4100 zone.

Earlier I was looking at the chart to ascertain where the share price might be headed. I looked at the share price just before Covid came to town and the markets were pumped with money and ultra low interest rates. Perhaps we've become too used to inflated SPs' and indices and forgotten what the market was like prior to Covid.

[disc0dave45] 05/5/2022 15:33

Our cousins across the pond sure do know how to get cheap uk stocks!

[fenners66] 05/5/2022 12:22

apparently the exchange rate might fall another 4% ...

[fenners66] 05/5/2022 12:13

£/$ down about 6.7% now from recent levels
If the £ keeps falling then I expect that to translate into a higher GBP dividend
Add in profit growth and the share buyback and surely we can look for a 50p final dividend - at least !

[bracke] 04/5/2022 16:57

Thursday, Friday and Tuesday saw well above average volume.

Thursday and Friday saw attempts at rising, the share price resisted and selling sent it back down. Tuesday which saw the highest volume ended with a hammer but todays price action has not confirmed a reversal. It has not made a new low but there appears to have been little buying.

[trt] 03/5/2022 08:37

Could see £35 share price if it drops below £40 level.

[fenners66] 28/4/2022 13:53

£ now down about 5.7% vs $
Add rental growth
Some share reduction from buybacks
and what % increase in £ EPS could we expect for the next year?

[disc0dave45] 28/4/2022 10:51

HSS full year results out today, beat consensus forecasts and Rev up 21%.

[disc0dave45] 28/4/2022 09:50

If AHT Q4 follows with +30% rental Rev, then I still reckon 250p eps is on, a PE of 17x is cheap IMO.

[fenners66] 28/4/2022 07:11

URI results on the face of it look very good.
Should be a read across to AHT