Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave46] 09/8/2024 09:11

Good morning Mr bPleased you are pleased :)This still seems pretty weak IMO given how URI responded positively yesterday (up over 4%).

[bracke] 08/8/2024 15:26

disc0

"Of course it was derived very scientifically after hours of guru analysis and contemplation :)"
================================================================================

I'm gratified you understand the analysis required to provide the detailed posts I provide.

Ref yen Carry Trade. All good things come to an end.

[disc0dave46] 08/8/2024 12:32

Good day Mr bOf course it was derived very scientifically after hours of guru analysis and contemplation :)Pesky gaps.Apparently these Yen carry trades are only about 60% unwound, more turbulence to come then?.

[bracke] 08/8/2024 10:32

Good day disc0

“analysis” derived a figure of 25% :)"
======================================

Not wishing to overly frighten the AHT Brethren by the consideration of up to 50%, I used the analysis of the last large drop i.e. 27% rounded to an easily understood figure of 25%. I assure you there was no guess, simply the application of the lowest drop of the three but a larger fall would not be a surprise.

AHT

Market volatility is swinging SPs' up and down. Today the gap at 5102 was filled but another opened at 5262

AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 07/8/2024 18:46

Mr blol"The 25% assumption was based on analysis of previous large reversals"Previous three were 53%, 50% and 27% with to-date was it 10%.Love to know how the "analysis" derived a figure of 25% :)Guess, of course not!

[bracke] 07/8/2024 18:16

disc0

GUESS!!! GUESS!!! HOW DARE YOU!!!

There is no room for 'GUESSING' in TA!!!

The 25% assumption was based on analysis of previous large reversals. I would not be surprised if it was more but initially a conservative view is appropriate.

[disc0dave46] 07/8/2024 18:07

Mr bAll those hours!......each to their own I suppose. Is a "guess" of 25% allowed in the guild of gurus?.Of course Lycra lol. Unfortunately it's road to get to off road.

[bracke] 07/8/2024 14:13

disc0

"Ps using tradingview charting as a non subscriber tool me at least an hour to get the graphs - an hour I’ll never get back! lol"
==================================================================================

That was quick! I spent 2-3 hours one Sunday on barchart.com identifying, setting up and printing the charts. I then spent a few more hours analysing them.

Mounting biking.....lycra clad I presume? On the road or other?

[disc0dave46] 07/8/2024 13:53

Good day Mr bThanks for explaining.Didn't pick up the "ascending cycles" just that a correction / pullback wouldn't be too surprising - but when and how much?, will leave that for you!.Talking of ascending cycles, off out on my mountain bike for an hour :)Ps using tradingview charting as a non subscriber tool me at least an hour to get the graphs - an hour I'll never get back! lol

[bracke] 07/8/2024 13:39

Good day disc0

The reason I did the analysis on the four charts was to try and understand the price action at the end of the ascending cycle. The four charts were the most recent ascending cycle charts.

I wanted to identify the price action following the top and what then follows. I also wanted to ascertain the total % drop.

There is a similar pattern in the four charts.

Without going into the detailed analysis the S&P 500 has dropped approx 9.7%. I am expecting a retrace back up to form a lower high i.e no higher than 5670 before it drops again BUT I am aware it may attempt to retest the high at 5670.

The total drop on the other three charts were 50%, 53% and 27%.

Assuming (always risky) a fall of 25% that would take the S&P500 down to 4250.

There are no certainties in trading but probabilities do help as do stops.

[disc0dave46] 06/8/2024 17:20

Mr b
S&P 500 (c = circa):
March 1999 to Oct 2002 (31 month period) - Mainly a downtrend from about Sept 2000. Start c 1225, peak c1525, low c775, end c886

May 2007 to March 2009 (22 month period) -
Downtrend from about Sept 2007.
Start c1500, peak c1575, low c675, end c800

June 2021 to Nov 2022 (17 month period) -
Uptrend until late 2021 then downtrend.
Start c4200, peak c4800, low c3500, end c4080

Nov 2022 to date (21 month period) -
Continuous uptrend
start c3800 (low), uptrend to peak c5700 now c5,300

Guess you could say a pullback was on the cards, not that it’s a pullback, in context a mere blip. after Have there been similar periods where it’s had a 21 month upward trend and made new record highs then pulled back as well? - pretty graphs though.

[disc0dave46] 06/8/2024 16:22

Mr b"Unemployment may be rising but it's the maximum that can be achieved in the pursuit of lower inflation."Same could be said then if pursuing 2% culminated in a recession, but wouldn't think that could in anyway be deemed a successful strategy - seems to me that's the markets current view too.Get what you are saying, doesn't mean I agree in terms of the potential outcome - has the FOMC defined what is "maximum" employment?, I've not seen anything. Anyway, sorry but can we agree to disagree.You can buy me a Mars bar if Mr P cuts before Sept or does 0.5% in one hit :)

[bracke] 06/8/2024 15:11

disc0

Unemployment may be rising but it's the maximum that can be achieved in the pursuit of lower inflation.

Yes S&P500.

[disc0dave46] 06/8/2024 13:58

Apologies Mr b, you meant the S&P charts!

[disc0dave46] 06/8/2024 13:56

2flatYep bronzed off, well and truly.But best I don't blame ssshhh you know who for the market crash, it was a healthy correction!.

[disc0dave46] 06/8/2024 13:55

Mr b"That's exactly what the FOMC are doing."Errmm unemployment is rising! lol Thanks though, bronze gilt I guess will have to do.Sorry will take another look at your pretty chart but thought it's support at 4954 appears as yet to be holding.

[2flatpack] 06/8/2024 13:37

discO
You sound bronzed off.
Thanks to you and bracke for the interesting narrative.
Cheers

[bracke] 06/8/2024 13:36

disc0

"the FOMC’s primary objective is to get to 2% inflation with “maximum”; employment - not higher unemployment."
==================================================================================

That's exactly what the FOMC are doing. They are moving inflation down towards 2% whilst maintaining maximum employment in the circumstances. Linguistic interpretation is such a godsend don't you think.

I remind you that your Bronze was upgraded on appeal to Bronze Gilt.

Have you looked at the charts I suggested at Post 62994? If so what are your conclusions?

[disc0dave46] 06/8/2024 12:39

Good day Mr bAppreciate higher rates hits employment so there's a balance, but the FOMC's primary objective is to get to 2% inflation with "maximum" employment - not higher unemployment. Which at the moment seems to be failing. As said more than once inflation would and has reduced naturally, how much is due to rates?, we'll never know but the central banks will happily take the credit, but at what cost?.Let's see what the next move is, a cut before Sept 17th/18th or a 0.5% cut.As for AHT, it's not looking very strong today, hopefully our cousins will change that.Ps still think a bronze is a bit tight! lol

[bracke] 06/8/2024 11:55

disc0

Higher unemployment was always going to be a consequence of inflation reduction.

The aim/hope is that inflation will reduce before the level of unemployment drops too low. If it fails to do so the mantra is that the sacrifice of higher unemployment will bring stability.

If I was being cynical/realistic I would suggest governments may 'fiddle' with factors which affect the economy but the cycle will have its day.

[disc0dave46] 06/8/2024 10:54

Mr bFair points on services PMI (believe it's 70% of GDP but that's me being pedantic!).Four straight months of increased unemployment and near to a three year high (2021 C19 impacts) is clearly why there's chatter about recession. To counter that inflation is heading in the right direction and unemployment isn't at record highs.Let's see what Mr P does - still contend that a 0.5% cut next month would support the hypothesis that he foooked up last week by not cutting 0.25%.

[bracke] 06/8/2024 10:11

Yesterdays gap filled and no gap this morning.

More importantly 4954 held.....so far.

AHT DAILY

[bracke] 06/8/2024 10:00

Good day disc0

As I mentioned in my earlier post the ISM Service data held up well. So if as fenners posts it accounts for 75% of the US economy one can understand why the FOMC are wary of rate cuts. Let's see what August brings.

[disc0dave46] 06/8/2024 08:16

Guess Mr P will carry on regardless:Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13711455/Calls-mount-Fed-step-cut-rates-markets-world-sell-off.html