Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 12/7/2024 13:45

Good day disc0

The US Small Cap 2000 Index confirms what you read.


RUT 2000 DAILY SHORT TERM




RUT 2000 DAILY LONG TERM

[disc0dave46] 11/7/2024 19:37

Good evening Mr bYes sorry I saw that after I'd posted, was only 14k lower from memory.Apparently the US are selling off megacaps and buying small caps where a rate cut would be more significant (that's what I've read anyway).Perhaps the same applies to the UK? Although I'm looking at mid caps with a decent percentage of non-fixed interest bearing debt - could be a short term play?.Have a good one

[bracke] 11/7/2024 16:16

But the jobless claims were lower than expected.

Rate Cut in September?

[disc0dave46] 11/7/2024 14:15

US inflation below forecasts at 3% v 3.1% forecast and core CPI also came in 0.1% below forecast at 3.3%.

[disc0dave46] 10/7/2024 14:20

Good day Mr bYes I'd agree, Mr P has IMO held too long already. Always felt his stubbornness to hit 2% above anything else was stupid. As posted the trigger for inflation wasn't even demand driven, it was the supply constraints. He and others have simply thrown petrol on a smouldering fire (all IMVHO and wtfdik).As for AHT, thanks for your analysis, it seems very weak at the moment, oversold as you say.Have a good one

[bracke] 10/7/2024 13:39

Good day disco

I thought Mr Powell's statement yesterday was particularly interesting. I got the impression that he was preparing the way for a rate drop before inflation is down to 2%.

Looking at various data it can be argued that the US has already entered a recession. We should not confuse the financial markets with the economy.


The number of people with more than one job is increasing and a good indicator that a recession is under way. If unemployment continues to increase Mr P will be under considerable pressure to cut the rate.

Considering AHT

The share price has dropped under the 61.8% Fib but so far held above 4954. The trend continues with lower highs and lower lows.

What next?

1 A retrace back above the 61.8% Fib but to provide some confidence to prospective buyers it needs to move and hold above the last high at 5284.

2 It is unable to fully complete the above and simply provides a retrace.

3 It continues down to test 4954.

Probability is for at least a retrace up.

Looking at the weekly chart does give concern given the number of times the share price has returned to test 4400.

In the short to medium term the focus is on the options 1-3 above.


AHT DAILY




AHT WEEKLY

[disc0dave46] 10/7/2024 10:16

It's a pity you didn't see the collapse coming at your holding at SDG, from its 52w high of 127 to its recent low of 72p.

[trt] 10/7/2024 09:45

If the price drops below £50 we could easily see £45.

[bracke] 09/7/2024 16:27

Good day mjc

Different P/E to those you quoted.

AHT




URI

[mjcferguson] 09/7/2024 13:46

United rentals p/e 17.5 versus 13.8 here.Big difference as growth has been better with Ashtead most years.

[bracke] 09/7/2024 12:57

The share price is looking oversold. Possible support at the last major low 4954. If that fails to support then 4800. The share price has had large falls previously so the prospect of 4400 should not be entirely discounted; possible but low probability.

It's interesting to note that URI has faired a lot better than AHT over the last two months.

Mr Powell testifies today.

Links below for AHT and URI.

AHT DAILY




URI DAILY

[disc0dave46] 05/7/2024 13:42

US NFP 206k v 200k forecast (although some sites have 190k as f/cast)Unemployment 4.1% v 4% forecast

[disc0dave46] 04/7/2024 11:19

Good day Mr bCould well be the case, that would be a cut in Sept then!.

[bracke] 01/7/2024 18:40

disco

Perhaps Mr P is under orders to drop the rate nearer the election so it is still in the minds of the Electorate when they vote?

[disc0dave46] 01/7/2024 17:13

I'd have thought the same. Perhaps some concern that the fool (Mr P) has or will leave it too late for any cuts. Or just the usual market shenanigans?.

[bracke] 01/7/2024 16:44

Good day disc0

I thought we were still in the 'bad news is good news' phase i.e. bad news is good for a rate drop which is good news.

[disc0dave46] 01/7/2024 15:30

US ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 from 48.7 and a rise to 49.1 was expected.Hence the drop on news (I guess)

[disc0dave46] 01/7/2024 10:01

Good day Mr b".....Compared to the US our 'two players' are positively 'Star Quality'. (I can't believe I typed that!)"I did type something similar - then deleted! lol

[bracke] 29/6/2024 18:14

Good day disc0

There is another debate scheduled for 10 September. If Biden is still the Democratic candidate will an excuse be made to cancel it or will more powerful drugs be used....

Biden or Trump what a choice. Compared to the US our 'two players' are positively 'Star Quality'. (I can't believe I typed that!)

[disc0dave46] 29/6/2024 13:08

Good day Mr b"They are probably thinking about 'The Biden Situation'!"Having just listened to some snippets, yep!, feel for the guy tbh but what a disaster....so the choice they have is vote for an old man (clearly struggling cognitively IMO) or a mad man (subjective)?. What a choice!.Have a good weekend

[bracke] 28/6/2024 18:44

Good day disc0

"US PCE as forecast but markets seem unimpressed."
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They are probably thinking about 'The Biden Situation'!

I was pondering whether Mr Trump would like to see Biden stay or go. One imagines Democrat Seniors will be busy trying to get Biden to quit.

[disc0dave46] 28/6/2024 15:09

Thanks for your TA as ever Mr b.US PCE as forecast but markets seem unimpressed.