Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[2flatpack] 27/6/2024 12:58

Morning All,
Managed to grab a few below the 200day.
Now just sit and wait.
Cheers

[bracke] 27/6/2024 11:32

A big drop this morning on opening which is surprising given that US major shareholder
Dodge & Cox increased their holding yesterday from 2.432% to 5.18%.

Support at 5300 has broken and the concern is that it will become resistance. If so 5200 may become support but more probably 5100.

[perfido] 26/6/2024 19:36

Thanks again bracke, much appreciated

[bracke] 26/6/2024 18:11

"Perhaps tomorrow's (US) announcements will provide some stimulation..?"
=======================================================================

There's a thought. Some would say the US Market is over stimulated or at least the big 7 or is it the big 5 now. The market breath is narrow (see link - far right column). Small and medium company indices show modest gains or loss for the year to date.

The Fed remain committed to 2% inflation so no stimulation. If the spectre of recession grows more apparent maybe '2% inflation' will go the way of 'transitory'.

[perfido] 26/6/2024 16:50

Thanks bracke,

As always your analysis is invaluable in trying to understand market sentiment.

I reduced some of my AHT holdings in April 24 at 6046.9, and could be tempted to buy some back
in if the price continues to fall. Perhaps tomorrow's (US) announcements will provide some
stimulation..?

[bracke] 26/6/2024 13:31

State of Play

Looking at the chart below it will be seen that the share price has performed lower highs and lower lows i.e. a downtrend. The share price has dropped out of the long term rising channel and is again at 5300 support.

A close below support and a lower low increases the probability of a drop to 5100. To provide confidence that the fall is over the share price needs to rise and close above resistance at 5500 to form a higher high.

AHT DAILY

[bracke] 24/6/2024 18:00

Good day disco

Mr Powell has been wearing his hawk costume of late and the dot plot is one for this year; so perhaps a rate reduction just before the election?

I've been reading about World banking debt and the Norinchukin Bank. The last time I read about such thinks was about six months before the sub-prime mortgage fiasco.
I didn't believe the doom forecasts; they were correct.

[disc0dave46] 24/6/2024 15:14

Good day Mr b.Yes hopefully Mr Powell will be more dovish after this weeks jobless number and PCE data......but then again who knows!.

[disc0dave46] 24/6/2024 15:12

Thanks PerfidoI did note (forgot to post on results day) that a certain publication (Shares Magazine) mentioned prior to results that the market forecast was an eps of 386p (which equates to circa 490 cents), which clearly was a typo and should have been in US cents, but perhaps this may have been partly to blame for the over the top selling on the day of results. Even though the numbers weren't anything to get too excited about (hopefully they are guiding now very conservatively!).

[bracke] 24/6/2024 13:26

The share price is currently range-bound. Resistance at 5500. Support at 5300.
Perhaps data later this week will break the impasse.

[perfido] 22/6/2024 10:21

Encouraging AHT write-up on Citywire:

Equipment rental group Ashtead (AHT) is working towards sustainable double-digit earnings growth, says Peel Hunt.

Analyst Andrew Nussey reiterated his ‘add’ recommendation and target price of £60 on the Citywire Elite Companies A-rated stock, which fell 2.3% to £53.86 on Tuesday.

The shares fell despite broadly in-line full-year 2024 results, including pre-tax profits of $2.2bn.

‘Ashtead continues to execute strongly, with end markets remaining robust,’ said Nussey. ‘Structural drivers continue to accelerate and market share is concentrating on a smaller number of well-invested and differentiated rental companies.’

He added that the five-year aspirations set out in the capital markets day are ‘credible’.

‘With a visible pathway to double-digit compound annual earnings per share growth and the share trading on 17.3 times price-earnings, we reiterate our “add” recommendation,’ he said.

Source: (registration is required to read this article at source - no advice intended!)

[disc0dave46] 20/6/2024 12:56

Yeah a bit surprised they got the Amey contract.....let's hope they keep a better track on their plant this time!.

[riley109] 20/6/2024 09:46

Ha Ha Ha all very quiet here about Speedys fantastic achievement

[2flatpack] 19/6/2024 17:13

Unfortunately was out yesterday, and missed the 200day,so had to jump in today at just above £54 with all my spare pennies.
Results looked OK to me.
I agree with fenners you can see what you want.
Hope your all well.
Cheers

[chachacha] 18/6/2024 18:28

Buybacks are de rigueur. Lazy auto management. Never works. Look at LLOY, VOD, GSK and all those FTSE100 boards pouring/wasting money into buybacks over the last few decades.

[bracke] 18/6/2024 15:02

Noooooooooooooooooo!!!!!

[slogsweep] 18/6/2024 12:37

Pity they have wasted so much on buy backs when reducing debt would have been a better option

[fenners66] 18/6/2024 11:44

The Alliance news headline :-

"TOP NEWS: Ashtead predicts rental growth slowdown amid profit decline"

The results :-

"We are in a position of strength, with the operational flexibility and financial capacity to capitalise on the opportunities arising from these market conditions and ongoing structural changes. Through the actionable components of our new strategic growth plan, Sunbelt 4.0, we will drive long-term sustainable growth and returns for all stakeholders and the Board looks to the future with confidence."

It seems you can write any take on it depending on your ambitions.....

[bracke] 18/6/2024 11:41

It was going to be difficult to match previous levels of growth and the market does not like slower growth forecasts.

The share price has dropped out of the long term rising channel but is holding at the 50% Fib (5298). The gap at 5312 has been filled but the drop this morning has opened up one at 5510.

So far there has been no rush to buy the drop, perhaps the US will take the opportunity when they open. If not next support is at 5100 with a long stop at 4954.

AHT SP

[disc0dave46] 18/6/2024 08:29

Consensus forecast was 386c eps, so in line with forecasts.Not particularly overwhelming numbers but solid enough IMO.

[trt] 18/6/2024 08:06

Could see £50 level.

[c_k] 18/6/2024 07:43

$10.8b looks to be on target. I am unsure what the City was looking for on profits though. Operating profit up 5% but profit before tax down 2%. This can't be good for the share price. Still showing impact from the film strike, high interest rates and staff costs.

[slogsweep] 14/6/2024 07:43

I hold US shares in an ISA NVDA Appl Coke. You get a Iben-8 form to exempt you from some of US witholding tax.