Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[perfido] 08/12/2020 19:25

...... Rise seemingly supported by substantial volume in excess of 2,340,000,
happy days :-)

[bracke] 08/12/2020 16:48

......and parked on 3300.

[perfido] 08/12/2020 16:46

Re fenners 58386 & charker 58388

It looks like fenners inadvertently left off a salient portion of the share buyback statement of intent which he quoted, for completeness this is the paragraph in full:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Group paused its share buyback programme in March as we took action to optimise our cash flow and strengthen further our liquidity position due to the uncertainty arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. We have resumed greenfield openings and, within the context of our balanced capital allocation policy, leverage range and the macroeconomic backdrop, we continue to assess bolt-on opportunities and the appropriate time to resume the buyback programme.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
.

[bracke] 08/12/2020 13:55

Good day fenners

The share price likes to gap up on results days and it may try to test 3400 again but I am doubtful it will hold. More likely is an attempt to establish support at 3300. Given that it has not established 3200 as a support zone 3300 is a little optimistic.

The share price is now 800 above the SMA200 which is the largest distance it has ever been to the upside. The only occasion it was greater was in March when the virus struck and it dropped but the share price quickly returned to the SMA200 and continued the rise up to date.

I posted recently about periodic large retraces the last was from 3269 to 3098 for 171 points. US stimulus, the virus and Brexit are muddying the waters but a 150-200 point retrace would normally be expected about this time.

[riley109] 08/12/2020 12:14

Suffered the Lord Charles effect this morning.When Ray Allen died he was left speechless.Balfour Betty says things are on the up having tried the one leg over resulting in satisfactory gap fills and now expects the next jump to £40.

[charker] 08/12/2020 10:11

Wonder if the buy back was paused after they were able to hover up 3 x the expected number of shares at £11 for a few days.

[fenners66] 08/12/2020 08:59

Mind the gap bracke ?

[fenners66] 08/12/2020 08:58

This is a pertinent section : -

" Capital allocation

The Group remains disciplined in its approach to allocation of capital with the overriding objective being to enhance shareholder value. Our capital allocation framework remains unchanged and prioritises:

-- organic fleet growth;
- same-stores;
- greenfields;
-- bolt-on acquisitions; and

-- a progressive dividend with consideration to both profitability and cash generation that is sustainable through the cycle.

Additionally, we consider further returns to shareholders. In this regard, we assess continuously our medium term plans which take account of investment in the business, growth prospects, cash generation, net debt and leverage. Therefore the amount allocated to buybacks is simply driven by that which is available after organic growth, bolt-on M&A and dividends, whilst allowing us to operate within our 1.5 to 2.0 times target range for net debt to EBITDA pre IFRS 16.

The Group paused its share buyback programme in March as we took action to optimise our cash flow and strengthen further our liquidity position"


If they deliver on that I am much happier.
It's also clear the market is responding to the cash generated and reduction of debt - not the decrease in profit.


Once again the Enterprise Value is a function of debt and equity - reduce the debt and therefore (all other things being equal) the equity rises.


Actually had a discussion on another board where a posted who knew the expression EV= Debt + Equity , believed that meant increase debt ...ad infinitum.... increase EV !

There is one thing knowing the expression and another entirely understanding it !

[fenners66] 08/12/2020 08:33

Surprised at the share price reaction, happy , but cannot believe it.

[bmel] 08/12/2020 08:12

One of the newspapers previewed this at the weekend with the phrase "cashstead".

Not bloody kidding lol

[amaretto1] 08/12/2020 07:34

The shares at 3200 pence !! So it has worked ....Warren Buffett has being buying shed loads of stock back on W

[mirabeau] 08/12/2020 07:34

'ahead of previous expectations'

Mar 2003, price 3p

[perfido] 08/12/2020 07:28

Yes but have you noticed the share price appreciation - no pleasing some people...

[fenners66] 08/12/2020 07:26

"Board has maintained the interim dividend at 7.15p per share (2019: 7.15p per share). This will be paid on 3 February 2021 to shareholders on the register on 15 January 2021."


So all the money spent on share buybacks has achieved zero increase in dividend for the remaining shares....

[perfido] 08/12/2020 07:20

Results look stunningly good to me

Free cash flow significantly up, borrowing leverage down, dividend maintained, outlook positive, well done Ashstead!

[bracke] 07/12/2020 18:49

Good day bmel

"Jobs growth slowed a lot in the last data and that increases the pressure on US lawmakers to get an bi-partisan agreement around the next slab of economic support funds. A huge number of people 'fall off' benefit at the end of the year"
================================================================================

Yes I presume an agreement will be reached, probably a question of how awkward the Senate is assuming that the Republicans continue to have a majority.

Printing money does not appear to be a problem, arguably it's a plus as it results in a lower $ which is ok for exports but not so good for imports.

Inflation is lying low so no problem......yet.

[bmel] 07/12/2020 18:40

bracke

You are right about the interest rates. Even the Marcus (Goldman) account has had about 4 rate cuts over he last 12 months.

I think consideration of the USA is critical here. Putting aside the current messing around with the transfer of presidential power - it will happen.

Jobs growth slowed a lot in the last data and that increases the pressure on US lawmakers to get an bi-partisan agreement around the next slab of economic support funds. A huge number of people 'fall off' benefit at the end of the year

I think a lot of that will be allocated in 'job ready' activities that can be fast tracked. That will include a lot of construction work, particularly around the massive backlog maintenance programmes work across the USA on roads, bridges, railways etc. Loads of this stuff is literally falling apart.

Good quality plant hire businesses should pick up a lot of income as a result of that.

[perfido] 07/12/2020 09:44

Q2 Results Tomorow:

Second quarter results for the period ended 31st October 2020 will be announced on 8th December 2020.
.

[bracke] 06/12/2020 15:17

With interest rates at low levels the money has to go somewhere.

[fenners66] 05/12/2020 14:13

URI up to $245 all time high ?
Even H&E over $30 - I have never seen that before....

[bracke] 04/12/2020 14:48

The share price hits 3300 and not a squeak on this thread! Or are you thinking it's a false break?

BTW - I know I'm posting to myself on here but I do find that I'm in full agreement with the posts....most of the time.

[bracke] 02/12/2020 11:57

The price action for 18 days has been a 3100-3200 range. It 's starting to look like a rectangle top which usually resolves in a break up but beware of false b/outs.