Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 31/12/2020 17:49

perfido

I don't think there is much difference between "bearish" and "risk averse" semantics apart.

I don't argue with your last sentence, it's a question of what's going to kick start it.

Here's hoping for an improving year for all.

[perfido] 31/12/2020 17:40

Good day bracke,

Not bearish just risk averse, hence I have been reducing my AHT holding as the price has risen to keep within target exposure.

Happy to buy back and raise my stake if AHT falls back, long term holders never die!

However I fear a reckoning is to come with countries overborrowed, stock markets on steroids, and economies wrecked, but then stock markets are said to climb a wall of worry, so with this in mind, I wish everyone here a happy and prosperous ascent in the New Year.
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[bracke] 31/12/2020 17:27

Good day perfido

What's this! Your post reads bearish! I never thought I would see the day!

If you check my recent posts you will see that my analysis is bearish but I am well aware that AHT can spring surprises.

If the share price does drop to 3350 that would be a fall of 179 from 3529 which is the high on the latest touch of the upper wedge line. Barring some major event there is little to see what will cause it to fall much further. All of the factors that took it to its current level are still in place.

[perfido] 31/12/2020 16:57

Hi bracke,

Interesting thanks, but everything is relative.

(PDF download)


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
(As at 30/12/20)
Ashtead Group Plc is currently trading at 3,489.00 which is 10.2% above its 50 day
moving average price of 3,167.22 and 32.7% above its 200 day moving average price of 2,628.98.

AHT:LN is currently trading at its 52-week high price of 3,489.00 and is 168.4% above its 52-week low price of 1,300.00. Over the past 52- weeks, AHT:LN is up 45.4% while on a calendar year-todate basis it is up 44.5%.

The Relative Strength Index(RSI) indicator for AHT:LN is currently 73. An RSI value of 70 and above is considered overbought and 30 and below oversold.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Although it may be pleasing to see the 12 month absolute gain between fixed dates, the volatility in that period has been extreme (e.g. low 1,300.00), and at the moment it's RSI indicates that it is overbought.

I like AHT and still hold some but only within a diversified (ISA) portfolio where AHT sale proceeds have been re-employed in other fruitful, lower risk, more diversified opportunities.

Just saying.... remember a profit is only a profit when it is crystalized

DYOR.
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[bracke] 31/12/2020 15:34

I've been looking at the Hourly chart for a more detailed view of the likely price action in the New Year.

1 There is a gap from the 30th to 31st. A rise to 3489 is required to fill.

2 Resistance zone was at 3430. Since breaking through it has been tested a couple of times and held. It did close slightly below 3430 but within the zone. If it does drop again the cavalry will want to hold 3400, if they fail a high probability of 3350.

3 Closing share price 31/12.2019 - 2414

Closing price 31/12/2020 - 3438

Difference 1024 = 42.42% rise for the year. Well held those who did.

[bracke] 31/12/2020 14:28

Good day fenners

Maybe. Let's see what happens when the market returns to normal working on next week. We will see whether the attempt to break above 3500 was 'playing' by a few, or if the main players are prepared to take part.

[fenners66] 31/12/2020 13:09

Good news for the share price then ?

[bracke] 31/12/2020 12:00

The 24th/29th gap filled.

[bracke] 30/12/2020 17:57

Thanks perfido

It seems that the link shows the chart I am showing on my computer which is not very satisfactory. I will try to find an alternative.

fenners

An share price usually breaks up or down by the time it has run 2/3 along the wedge, they rarely continue the run straight through the apex.

As I posted earlier, during holiday low volume periods the share price is 'played with'. It's easy to manipulate a price when volume is low. The 'true' situation resumes when the holiday period is over.

If the share price is to b/out above the upper wedge line it will require more volume unless it can be done during the low volume period. The MACD and RSI are both high and the share price is a considerable way above the Daily SMA50, SMA100 and SMA200. Those indicators suggest a retrace is due at least to the wedge lower line.

[perfido] 30/12/2020 17:21

Hi bracke,

The chart now opens showing the AHT ascending wedge, thank you, this has developed well since we first discussed it.

Indeed I would modestly remind readers that I forecast a decision point from our wedge around 3510p, a price around which the share price has spent much of today.... (see forecast post 58398 10/12/20 price 3270p)

If this is success, the only question is, what part did serendipity play? :-)

[fenners66] 30/12/2020 17:11

I got the chart this time and have saved a screen dump of it.

I see we got the very late annoying fall back again today.

What does the chart say to you bracke ?
Obviously the direction of travel between the two lines is up and given the gradients that looks like a long time before they meet.

So is that where the share price is going or do the runes tell you something else - like the MACD is overbought or something ?

[bracke] 30/12/2020 13:49

I reckon after hitting 3500 yesterday it could not believe it and is going back to test. Or it could be what often occurs during holiday time. It becomes 'playtime' for those who are working. Because volume is low the share price can be manipulated, very naughty but profitable for the players.

[bracke] 30/12/2020 13:45

Thanks fenners

I suspect the link may show the chart I am viewing when you click on the link. I will leave it on the AHT chart until you have viewed it. Please let me know if that works.

[fenners66] 30/12/2020 12:49

Have they found a full Bitcoin wallet ?

[fenners66] 30/12/2020 12:48

How is the share price up to 3500 ?

[fenners66] 30/12/2020 12:48

The Chart came up as the Dow.....

[bracke] 30/12/2020 10:32

Good day perfido

When you click on the link does it open the AHT chart?

"but unless my eyes deceive me it doesn't let the viewer select AHT, unless you sign in?"
================================================================================

I don't understand?

[perfido] 29/12/2020 21:07

Hi bracke

The chart now opens perfectly, but unless my eyes deceive me it doesn't let the viewer select AHT, unless you sign in?

Very pretty chart though :-)

[bracke] 29/12/2020 18:07

Try this perfido

Link removed.

[perfido] 29/12/2020 18:02

Bracke

Don't worry if posting the graph link can't be accomplished easily, I think your description adequately covers the price action - thanks

[bracke] 29/12/2020 17:59

Volume today - 488,269 which suggests it was not a breakaway gap. Neither does it appear to justify the early price rise. Games (profitable) being played.

[bracke] 29/12/2020 17:51

Good day perfido

My apologies. I thought I had found a way of displaying my chart direct from Tradingview but it appears not. I will try to correct the situation but I don't hold out much hope. In the meantime I will remove the link.

[perfido] 29/12/2020 17:34

Good evening bracke

Unfortunately the chart you have posted fails to open with the message:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This chart layout can't be opened

If you are the owner of this chart layout then you need to log in to be able to see it.

If you wish to see someone else's chart layout then please ask the owner to enable chart layout sharing or to publish it by clicking the Publish Idea button.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Are you able to enable 3rd party viewing?
.

[bracke] 29/12/2020 14:01

The link below is the Daily chart. It shows the share price moving up a rising wedge during which the share price has touched the upper and lower trendlines a few times. If the pattern is to be repeated the share price will drop back to approx 3350.

EDIT

If the chart is not showing the Daily, change the timeframe at top left next to 'AHT'.

Apologies the link does not work.

[bracke] 29/12/2020 12:13

Well done fenners! There's no pulling the wool over your eyes.