Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bonio10000] 15/10/2020 09:24

I'm sure that's how it works with despotic regimes.

[terropol] 15/10/2020 09:21

MAD FOETUS, that is my thinking too.

[mad foetus] 15/10/2020 09:03

If AAZ "allowed" some of its senior engineers to help with the war effort then might the Quid pro quo be easier negotiations with the government on new extensions?

[jbravo2] 15/10/2020 09:02

Ha ha no sorry, just nit picking with it for accuracy but agree it’s important these things are right.

Yes I’ve wondered if they kind of take the current years performance into consideration when declaring. After all they’ve got 4 months under the belt by then. No idea. They must be doing it subconsciously even if there is no explicit chat about it.

[2sporrans] 15/10/2020 08:47

i've edited my post 40617, removing erroneous comments wrt the 2019 dividend.

[2sporrans] 15/10/2020 08:41

Apologies jb.

my reference to 2019-20 was purely to do with when the dividend was decided and declared.
so the final dividend - governed strictly by the 2019 performance - was decided some time late in spring 2020 and declared in the final FY report for 2019.
That was issued on 13May20 was it not?
The conversion from $ to £ [pence] was made a while later, after the XD date in June.

A case of how i look at the chronology not being the same as others or indeed the accepted convention in this case.
[i do wonder if, when a divi is decided, the circumstances and expectations at that time, several months after the end of year the divi relates to are taken into account?]

Do you disagree with anything else i wrote btw?

[jbravo2] 15/10/2020 08:21

Well you're partly right. What do you mean when you say 2019-2020?The dividend was distinctly for 2019. The performance of that year. It had nothing to do with 2020 other than yes it was paid in Q3 2020

[2sporrans] 15/10/2020 08:18

with ref. to posts 40606 - KS and 40605 - mine.

One has to take care and examine what one is plucking out of an RNS to paste here.

Take that morsel i lifted from the Q3 prod. RNS:

"In Q3 2019, the Company paid the final dividend for 2019 of $5.2 million "

Well, clearly the report is inaccurate; the final dividend for 2019 was paid in Q3 2020 [not 2019].

Another quote from same RNS:

"Cash generation in Q3 2020 of $9.5 million before payment of final dividend for 2019 in Q3 2020 of $5.1 million and including sales proceeds in October of gold inventory of $12.1 million"

The payment is stated as $5.1 million whereas it was put at $5.2 mn in the first quote.

Although these are relatively trivial errors, a quite serious clanger was dropped with the Q2 production RNS.
That made reference to poor [low and/or coppery] grades coming out of the mines.
The summary comment was flatly contradicted by the detailed figures in tables and text below it.
I wrote a post up here to highlight this and that one ought to go with the detailed information which made more sense in any event.

That erroneous headline was serious in that it failed absolutely to state that Ugur depletion was a/the primary reason for lower grades; worse than that it guided the reader into the false impression that the grades in both the main pit and Gadir were coming out much lower, when in fact there was no problem with them.
Something that [to my relief] these Q3s have confirmed.
Indeed they have both improved significantly.

[wanobi] 15/10/2020 07:52

AAZ - AN (Aljazeera News) reporting AZER taking out ARM military positions last night,,, so it looks like they are continuing as they said they would... ARM saying they are retreating in some areas.... Turkey saying ARM has to give the land back to AZER,,,, AZER people interviewed wanting their lands back at all costs..... hmm, cheers Wan

[wanobi] 15/10/2020 07:49

Good morning all, Good Luck, Good Health & peace to all today, Cheers Wan :-)

Gold at 1899
Silver at 24.17
Brent at 43.26
US$ Basket at 93.48

yeah, I know Rb,,, but, there are just so many opportunities out there :-) LOL and I'm doing my best to keep a reasonable % in cash for any big falls this winter,,, which may or may not happen :-),,,, but that's my strategy right now LOL... thanx for the heads up on Chalice, I shall take a look at it when I review my lists over the weekend :-).... thanx for all you help, support & guidance Rb,,,,,

you to cmb, many thanx again & again & again :-) LOL,,,, excellent point you make in regard to the 'spit-test' & air travel,,,, although right now I cannot see much but further restrictions coming across the whole of Europe,,, well except for Sweden perhaps... what a world :-) LOL

I say LOL as one either LOL or cries about all this and I prefer to keep smiling, chin up, march forward and make the most of the situation as best as I can :-)

many thanx for heads up DP,,,, are we getting another podcast tomorrow ?? I am very much looking forward to the next one :-)

GLA
ATB
Cheers
Wan :-)

[donald pond] 15/10/2020 07:20

RR. Announce their debt financing and at borrowing 2bn at a blended rate of something like 5.4%. That's bloody expensive in this day and age. I can't make head of tail of what the shares might do.

[bwana4] 15/10/2020 06:23

Good morning Guys.
Rolls Royce has gone on my watch list today.
Wan as you know I nearly trembled my investment in MNOD. Sometimes it pays to invest in larger Co's as well.
Well I do, from time to time.
The COVID-19 Saliva test should open up the Air industry IMO.
ATB.

[riggerbeautz] 14/10/2020 23:21

Ahh Wan it’s no use putting them on watchlists, if you don’t buy them lol

B.t.w if you’re keeping tabs on my picks still, I’m probably going to cash out Chalice soon, maybe tonight, I’ve held a bit too long it’s fallen from the peak but more than doubled from your chart around a month back.

Got greedy but I’m half convinced it will go much higher, so I hold, then again I’m never perfect with my timing; still another win so mustn’t grumble as Bumpa scolds me.

[wanobi] 14/10/2020 22:11

who knows what will happen jeanesy,,,, but, I'm kind of thinking now that winter is coming, AZER has made some territorial progress, but, not a lot in the scheme of things,,, so how long will they & ARM really want to keep this war going.... not long is my current thinking,,, but what do I know.... cheers Wan :-)

[wanobi] 14/10/2020 22:09

many thanx Rb, I shall add to my watchlists :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[wanobi] 14/10/2020 22:07

If the Chinook testing comes back anything like the Cascadura testing did earlier this year, TXP’s “wall of cash” is going to more closely resemble a tsunami given the low development costs for this project. Dare to dream.

Cheers
Wan :-)

[jeanesy] 14/10/2020 20:30

Well AAZ didn't fall as much as i thought as buying came in at around 105p. Still the company needs a break as it has done little wrong. Lets hope the next news is good and the skirmish dies down .. please for everyone's sake .

[riggerbeautz] 14/10/2020 20:27

Wan I’ve added AAG to my silver plays today, was on the watchlist and it started to motor; I’d already missed out DEF, so didn’t want to dawdle. 5c gain so far.

[doc_oj] 14/10/2020 19:42

@malcontent: apologies if you were asking a genuine question whilst I thought you were taking the mick.
On a serious note, the two recent dips close to 100 have been snapped up pretty quickly. The volume seems much more than the dip with covid down to 70.
I will throw some more at it if it gets to 90 although I strongly suspect that may not happen. But wtfdik, it should have been closer to 200 rather than 100p.
Medium to long term building a position i seriously believe even at today's price it's a good entry point.
Perhaps the drop today wouldn't have presented itself had the company more realistically anticipated they would not be able to meet the annual guidance and announced that at the earlier rns.i somehow did think at the time it was very ambitious for them to state annual guidance remained unchanged despite the poor second quarter but again wtfdik.
Good luck with what you decide to do.

[malcontent] 14/10/2020 19:25

ok thanks all
I'll be watching closely

[riggerbeautz] 14/10/2020 19:14

Thanks Wan, I’m tempted to cash some MAG in again and flip back into ELY and NMD

My timing taking profits and getting out of both was more than fortunate, as the Royalty streamers have more than cooled, in fact they’ve sold off hard, much harder than I thought they would. I’m struggling to find an entry point on such weakness, it’s confounded me a bit how hard they pushed down.

[bozzy_s] 14/10/2020 18:26

Malcontent; I don't do Technical Analysis. Mostly gut feeling, looking closely at trades, and very closely at divi yields, balance sheet, P&L, P/E ratio etc.

My gut feeling is we might see double figures when the production target RNS comes out. It'd be a miracle to buy at the absolute lowest point, so perhaps aim for the low 100s pence if everything else is going ok for AAZ? I'd be raiding the piggy bank at 90-99p, if everything is ok and the NK war hasn't spread.

But I won't be selling any now, as I think there's a fair chance the war will become a stalemate by winter, with reduced risk to areas away from the front lines. There's also plenty of potentially positive news in the pipeline.

I made the mistake of selling CGNR too soon, based on a hunch they'd place shares at a discount after the AAZ tie-up. They did place shares, at a discount, but it didn't harm the share price. Right analysis, wrong trade, by me.

[bozzy_s] 14/10/2020 18:15

Zangdook; yes until 2 weeks ago apparently! To be honest I hadn't noticed TSG quadrupling their interim payout. Not sure what they'll pay going forwards, whereas we know AAZ will maintain/increase each year.

Lefrene; you have a good point. And combined with my note above (AAZ having a progressive dividend policy), actually it would make sense not to double the payout at this time. Just an increase of 1c or 1.5c per year while increasing cash reserves would be great.

[ilostthelot] 14/10/2020 17:43

Malcontent who knows. If you're lucky maybe it'll dip below 90p. I'd certainly take advantage to buy there.
So I'd say buy orders in at 103 ( the recent low) then below that 90p and 80p. If it goes that low it'll most likely be down and back up just as quick imho. Good luck with your entry point.

[doc_oj] 14/10/2020 17:31

@malcontent: why did you stop there with your basic charting, you'd find your advanced charting may tell you the next R/S levels are 40, 30 and 20 lol