Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[c0lin1] 14/10/2020 07:38

I read it sightly different but hope im wrong.

It says 5% to 10% from current guidance which is 75-80K. which if 10% would mean 10% off 75-80k would mean 67- 75k approx so the effect on the last quarter is quite significant.
what others think??

[2sporrans] 14/10/2020 07:36

"o An estimated five to ten per cent. reduction may be required from the current guidance of 75,000 to 80,000 GEOs"

Well, there has been an impact upon production due to conscription - of engineering staff; something i'd considered might happen, then thought not to this degree.

Seems as if the new underground mine access tunnel has hit awkward rock faults, so presume the production from development ores delayed a bit.

"Full Year 2020 ("FY 2020") production guidance is currently under review following some minor delays in the underground development arising from the effects of the Azeri and Armenian conflict due to the conscription of a number of engineering staff and some recently encountered temporary delays due to underground rock faulting."

Still 18.45k GEO production, not bad.
Implies September might have been a tad under 6k, as Bill advised both July and August were over 6k and August higher than July.

No problems with the cashflow/cash and good prices for the sales:

" The Company had cash at 30 September 2020 of $21.4 million ($29.2 million at 30 June 2020).

In Q3 2019, the Company paid the final dividend for 2019 of $5.2 million and corporation tax of $3.0 million. Company inventory of 6,335 ounces of gold at 30 September 2020 was sold in early October for $12.1 million. "

So $21.4m + $12.1m = $33.5mn in the bank after the dividend and Q3 tax paid.

or is the tax H2? KS, anyone?

Anyway, cash in bank up $4.3mn from end of Q2/H1.

Will this get sold off?
Maybe, but there's already a big conflict discount.

[inaminute] 14/10/2020 07:33

RNS suggests it has affected production by 5-10%.

[supercity] 14/10/2020 07:32

Doesn't take much to work out that the increase in the price they are selling the gold will more than cancel out the fall in production revenue wise from previous guidance I am sure the markets won't see it that way though.

[danbatsb1] 14/10/2020 07:32

If we end the year with a 5% - 10% reduction then i think thats pretty good considering everything thats happened. They are still making huge amounts of cash even with the reduction. The market might not like it but that presents us with a very good opportunity.

[donald pond] 14/10/2020 07:30

And 1947 for the quarter rather than the 1480 budgeted. But still, we need an RNS that is just unambiguously good to kick things on.

[inaminute] 14/10/2020 07:29

Exactly. If the opportunity presents itself Brasso I will be joining you by taking more.

[brasso3] 14/10/2020 07:26

Yes it reads like a disaster (sarcasm alert)! This was the worst part:-

6,335 ounces sold in early October at average price of $1,910 per ounce generating proceeds of $12.1 million

[2prsimo] 14/10/2020 07:25

Doesn't read too well I'm afraid - the market won't like to hear of a 5-10% reduction on the guidance.

[c0lin1] 14/10/2020 07:24

TXP - Significant GAS Find

[brasso3] 14/10/2020 07:16

I will be ready to take more if its on offer.

[donald pond] 14/10/2020 07:11

Looking like reinvesting the dividend may be required at bargain prices...wish it wasn't though

[dixi] 14/10/2020 07:08

Can only hope it's priced in, but this is now my least successful of recent investments. How quickly things can change in this world!

[donald pond] 14/10/2020 07:05

Hmm, possibly a 5-10% drop in annual production...just can't catch a break right now

[2sporrans] 14/10/2020 00:39

Get your reasoning Lefrene and accept you may well be right, though not changed my mind.
Seems to me, wrt work at the mines, plant or with a rig or whatever...there is a
binary situation: Either carry on regardless, do the job or alternatively don't.
How can the work be adapted to make it safer?

So, i expect work is carrying on pretty much as 'usual'; all or nothing basically.

If things escalate into all out war [All borders warfare, Armenia as such hit and all over Ajerbaijan too], then clearly the risks, even to a Brit. owned mining facility, do soar likewise.
Then a less sanguine RNS will almost surely be issued.
The plant might even get shut in such circumstances, being the most vulnerable [high 'value', easiest to hit]potential target, i guess.

Could be there will be an impact upon newsflow.
We'll soon find out.
{JORC excepted perhaps - jest.....sort of]

[lefrene] 13/10/2020 22:22

2sporrans, I will be surprised if there hasn't been an impact on production given the amount of missiles being used, and persons having no idea who will be the next target. The stress on all concerned must be huge, and this of course coming along with the covid thing too. With no current end in sight there's no knowing just how vindictive things could get before it's over.

I have seen an RT interview done today with the president of Armenia, he seems a rather slithery sort, but I suppose that comes with just about any politician, however I did note that 6 minutes into the interview that he was distancing himself from the 'decisions and actions' of his prime minister. I did wonder if a certain Mr Putin might have had a word in his ear?

I would prefer any announcement tomorrow to be as low key as possible, the good news can keep until the lying and killing has stopped.

[2sporrans] 13/10/2020 21:56

Lefrene

Should have added a response to your concern:
"I would guess that production will have dropped, perhaps due to air raid precautions?"

I'm [cautiously] optimistic production won't have been impacted; take the AAZ RNS at face value and still accurate, escalation notwithstanding.

If it has been, my guess is that it will be down to interruption of supplies, though
that does not strike me as likely.
Mulled over some of the workforce being 'called up' but dismissed the idea.

Clearly, these times are not conducive to further Ariel surveying though :0(

I do wonder about Ordubad though.
Then again, that is pretty much defended by Turkey - by treaty.

[mattjos] 13/10/2020 20:51

Assume Q3 update tomorrow morning. Lets see if we also hear any more about Gedabek u/g as we are now in Q4.
The JORC should be this month also.

Monday we should get GBPUSD conversion rate for the 4.5c final dividend (GBP took a dive today) .. looks like it will be fractionally under 1.3, giving 3.4615p / share & cumulatively over 15p / share in just 2 years!

Let's say you bought in here for 65p during 2018 when the dividend policy was first announced & have just sat still ever since. You've now earned 23% cumulative yield on the investment & seen circa 80% capital appreciation. Not a particularly difficult decision &, I'll wager, considerably better than some dodgy solar bond.

Let's hope the shares hang around here, at the bottom of the range, until 5th November.

Anyone still holding shares purchased with average of 15p or under is now 100% free carried.

[2sporrans] 13/10/2020 17:50

"Is he currently advertising for a food taster?"

Might not be any volunteers Lefrene.

Beware the NovoChoock chicken dish!

It does look like Pashinyan took a gamble too far with his NK ploy; reckless rebuttal
of any hope for the Azerzis to retrieve their lost rayons around NK province forced Aliyev's hand.
The other gambles have made him enemies within Armenia and also upset the Russkies with his EU/Western leaning.
They didn't fanny about when the Georgians tried to punch way above their weight in similar circumstances a few years back.

[lefrene] 13/10/2020 17:04

You're most welcome 2sporrans. I feel sure that almost none of the ordinary people of Azerbaijan or Armenia want this war. It's a political confrontation, and I would guess that the Russians understand the politics of the region better than most. If it boils down to one man being the chief intransigent of the current situation, then the Russians are perhaps best placed to influence matters.

The opinion expressed in Pravda, I presume has the blessing of State officialdom, and perhaps hints at policy? Will this alone be enough for the Armenian PM to see the writing on the wall? Is he currently advertising for a food taster?

In the meantime I feel for the workers at the mine, it must be stressful not knowing if you are about to become a target as part of economic payback spite. I would guess that production will have dropped, perhaps due to air raid precautions?

[2sporrans] 13/10/2020 16:26

Thanks for that Pravda take Lefrene.

Could well be the key to resolution is suggested therein.

[fuji99] 13/10/2020 16:10

Printing money will never solve any problem because the taxes will go to the roof everywhere. Cheap money will lead to high inflation. So only gold and silver will remain with real value.

[wanobi] 13/10/2020 15:57

US Stimulus Deadlock KS, cheers Wan :-)

[fuji99] 13/10/2020 15:50

To escape any Brexit and US election turbulence, it is illogical to leave money in a bank with a 0% interest or even negative interest in the very near future. So only gold and bitcoin are left where to hide. Regarding AAZ, its Gedabek mine is 260km away from the disputed territory. It is NOT an area in Azerbaijan that is disputed or has seen conflict in the long running dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Russia is a traditional ally of Armenia, Turkey a traditional ally of Azerbaijan. The number of pipelines crossing their territories mean there is great international interest in ensuring that this conflict doesn't escalate. No one wants to escalate the conflict, thus why it will end up in a negotiated agreement regardless of any sporadic sparks between the two sides.