Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[friendzarin] 10/10/2020 21:52

Aos

I posted this site address a few days ago.It uses a variety of sources .In this current situation it is impossible to be completely without bias, but I would suggest it gives you the opportunity to canvass a broader range of articles.Hope you find it useful.

[lhoskins] 10/10/2020 21:35

I'll stick with KEFI for next week please. News due so hoping for RNS this week. (famous last words).

[pogue] 10/10/2020 21:03

An interesting lesson from history on gold from Oilprice.com of all places

They say that time travels are impossible. But we just went back to the 1960s! At least in the field of monetary policy. And all because of a new Fed’s framework. So, please fasten your seat belts and come with me into the past and present of monetary policy – to determine the future of gold!

[aosullivan] 10/10/2020 20:41

From Friendzarin link kindly posted to my request for a more objective source of info.

[mad foetus] 10/10/2020 20:22

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing

[goodgrief] 10/10/2020 20:18

Sununu no longer endorses Trump. Well actually he calls him a "loser".

[aosullivan] 10/10/2020 20:02

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/armenia-azerbaijan-ceasefire-revives-basic-principles-and-demonstrates-putins-continued-sway/Very interesting read.

[mattjos] 10/10/2020 18:23

If it's middle 2022 when the inflation genie finally breaks free from the bottle & Gold has trudged its way up to $2,500 by then …. it could well then go into a much higher gear and move far higher in the rush to Gold as protection, from what I expect to be, a strong bout of inflation.

That would be just as we bring Avschancli 1 & 3 into production, followed closely by Gilar & Ugur Deeps and then Zefer.

200koz / year with gold over $2,500 ? I'll keep tight hold for that, thank you

[mattjos] 10/10/2020 18:15

Applying the same interpretation of points of convergence, if the US$ breaks down from here (as I do expect) then, I would expect that weakness to persist until middle of 2022 … where the two trend lines on the US$ chart converge.
That's potentially 30'ish months of US$ weakness before it manages to stage a come back.

Given the Bond & Equity markets seem to be completely under the control of the FED, All this negative 'pressure' in the global economy looks, to me, like it will boil up in the currency markets.
A weakened $ will actually drive up reported $ profits of US corporates who derive profits elsewhere in the world so, that in itself may well keep the equity markets in the USA elevated through that period.
The Fed has repeatedly now said that interest rates are going to stay nailed to floor for the foreseeable future so, that action is not going to lend much support to the US$ through 2021 & into 2022.

So maybe, it's a case that interest rates will stay low, the Bond market will similarly continue as they are & we wont see inflation rise up above the 2% target until some time in 2022 … for the US$ to bottom and then start a new bull around middle 2022, perhaps that is when the FED will make it's first raise in rates?

Anyway, that's how I see things & therefore I expect Gold, Silver & other commodities to continue in their respective Bull markets for at least the next 2½ years

[bleepy] 10/10/2020 18:13

$1905 support nails on a special divi, $2000/$2500/$3000 going forward + pipeline full of news and prospects....what divi then as can certainly see share price passing £3+ for starters.

Enjoying the technicals, nice work Mattjos

[mattjos] 10/10/2020 17:54

The other thing I am keeping close watch on is the US$ Basket, the Monthly chart.



This shows a very clear 18-Year triangulation pattern and is very, very significant, imo.

August this year it fell out of that pattern. September it rose back into that pattern & so far this month, it has fallen back right onto the support line.

so often the case then when these pattern break downward that, after the primary breakdown indicator, there is a brief counter-rally to try and get back into the pattern. This usually fails & traders often treat it as the last chance to get the hell out. Subsequent Candles usually go on to prove the breakdown.

for me, this is probably the most important chart of them all right now. If we end October below the 9-Year lower Blue support line then I believe there is every reason to expect a markedly weaker US$ going forward & it does not look like there is too much support until it falls to the 8500-8000 level .. that would be a BIG move down for the US$ & I suppose it's reasonable to conclude a corresponding converse upward move in Gold and most other commodities.

[2sporrans] 10/10/2020 17:52

FZ

Very interesting find. [Water resource post]

[goldrush] 10/10/2020 17:47

King Suarez

A few years ago Reza did some Proactive interviews etc....if my memory serves me right 😀😀

[mattjos] 10/10/2020 17:37

Given convergences around that date, 20th November, I suspect there is potential for a major move in gold around that time … whether it is a swift reversal of what may now prove to be a 5-week upward run or, if we simply drift around at circa $1,900 and then blast higher around that date, remains to be seen.

I can't see any reason to suppose the long term chart pattern of a big Cup with Handle and circa $2,400 - $2,600 Gold price target is not still valid. It may well run on way past that for years to come.

[mattjos] 10/10/2020 17:30

The other reason what that November 20th date looks likely to be 'significant' in some way is shown here on a even longer timeline.

This 'Resistance turned Support line' actually converges with the much longer term Horizontal from the 2011 peak of $1,905.

[wanobi] 10/10/2020 17:25

hmmmm



Wan

[mattjos] 10/10/2020 17:24

If we zoom out and review with a simple line (closing price) chart, it looks like a relatively simple case of what was previously a 2-Year line of resistance, has now turned into a line of support:

[goldrush] 10/10/2020 17:22

Friendzarin

Thanks for the windowoneurasia2 links to the water angle. Some further analysis also about Nachivan. We know that area is important to the Aliyev family and of course ultimately the Ordubad development.

I am sure it is a good time for Reza to be involved in detailed discussions to get the extra licence areas etc finalised and for the government to see that developments will be fast tracked with the resultant employment and economic development.

All IMHO.

[friendzarin] 10/10/2020 17:12

Re Q&A from recent Proactive
Can't get the link to stick unfortunately but am pleased to see the Question I asked about Reza presenting the strategy has been positively answered. I for one will certainly look forward to his content input and delivery.His style is usually extremely positive and I trust he will be able to speak to realising the undoubted
numerous opportunities available.

[mattjos] 10/10/2020 17:11

Hi Brasso,

It looks to have completed a Bullish Falling Wedge (there was a distinct prior uptrend & the triangle is bounded by 5 contact points).

The triangulation of the pattern (red & blue trend line convergence) is around the 20th November so, between now and then is the duration for this new upward breakout to run for.



It has broken out quite early in the pattern, suggestive of either a very strong uptrend or, possibly a false breakout & therefore a near-term fall back into the pattern for a few more days.

In terms of that 20th November convergence … might that signify Gold is now going to remain elevated and moving generally upwards until such time as a 'result' is called on the USA election?
It may be that initial result on 4th November is subject to delay pending postal vote counting and some sort of challenge from one side or the other.

Given the proximity to the USA election & its importance + the ensuing next round of Covid stimulus in the USA, it seems to me that this is the dominant influence on the price of Gold just now

[brasso3] 10/10/2020 16:52

Matt

Do you think that low in gold around $1850 was the completion of the A, B, C correction? I just watched some analysis on youtube where a guy was saying that is only the A wave.

[friendzarin] 10/10/2020 16:06

Interesting aspect of how water has implications for both sides in the conflict.



Edit

Thanks Goldrush for highlighting this in a later post but clicking on the other links on the article does promote some further consideration of what other aspects might be a consideration in Azerbaijan's underlying strategy.

[bozzy_s] 10/10/2020 15:34

That was always the worry from Azeri's side. Would they follow international diplomacy (peace) or the wishes of their people (war to reclaim Azeri lands)?

Hopefully in the long run peace efforts by Russia, Iran, Europe and USA will outweigh Turkey and Azeri public opinion.

The fact a ceasefire has been agreed in principal gives some hope. Might take some hours for orders to reach the front lines.

In any case, AAZ not directly affected. My biggest concern would be Azeri / Turkey military / Syrian Jihadists doing something stupid to civilians, leading to economic sanctions on Azerbaijan. Very slim chance, but still possible.

Could be a decent week for AAZ with decent news and ceasefire holding.

[king suarez] 10/10/2020 14:45

It suggests something 'big' in terms of longer term strategy to be announced (hopefully)? Reza has not presented before to my recollection?

I guess they will get the JORC out first then that can lay the foundation for the next/new direction..

[donald pond] 10/10/2020 14:38

thanks for feedback wan!

As for next week, one time PXC has to be the right choice, so PXC it is!