Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[lefrene] 20/8/2020 14:59

Mattjos, I would guess that most fund managers follow the herd, because the most important thing is to be seen to be no worse than the rest of the class, regardless of whether they all do well or badly. Perhaps Buffet dumping some banks and buying into metal miners might be having a wider effect? At least it will send a few off researching miners, and running that slide rule over their bank holdings, wondering what it is that Buffet has spotted. As far as USA banks go, I would be worried about the ones exposed to commercial property loans, apparently circa 20% of those loans are non performing, but as yet don't have to be declared because of the Covid forbearance situation.

[the stigologist] 20/8/2020 14:57

Sharepickers Justin Waite out with a decent and v bullish write up on C4XD



Chart shows potential for melt up from 20p to 40p

CEO bought stock at 60-100p

Chart shows potential for at least 100p but Justin talking potential 20x !

[fozzie] 20/8/2020 14:55

'just to satisfy a grubby little fund manager who wants in on the cheap?' lol

[gold finger 1] 20/8/2020 14:48

Matt.
You can't close your eyes to this buying and selling.
Well you can if you want.
But someone is mopping up all those sells.
Nice round 10,000 and now 20,000 sells.
I doubt very much any PI would be able to get a order filled for 225,000 shares.

[goldrush] 20/8/2020 14:47

Mattjos

Completely agree.

There have been fun and games as we all know, but this is AIM and is par for the course.

There are underdeclared holdings here and given time this will come out.

This is a great time to be picking up a few.....CGNR news due shortly, JORC Upgrades, announcement of mining into underground resources etc, Ordubad action with Azergold etc, PSA expansion/extension announcements with Government etc etc....IMHO

[mattjos] 20/8/2020 14:36

Why do you think Reza has to sell any shares.
This is Equity in the company. The most precious thing.
He is getting a terrific return on his equity in the form of a dividend.

He has 32,796,830 shares in his name.
The last divined he received was therefore worth 32,796,830 * $0.045 = $1.476m

Cumulative dividends to date he has received $4.9m

Now, why on earth would he want to sell any shares whatsoever in the company, just to satisfy a grubby little fund manager who wants in on the cheap?

If a fund manager was really worth salary, he should have been picking these up from Bashirov 5 years ago but, fund managers generally do not do the necessary research to have seen that opportunity.
I'm quite sure they are interested now .. if they want the shares they can, & probably will, pick up phone to Cantor and ask them to acquire them in the market & Cantor will happily take on that commission by using all the tricks they can as the lead MM on the book to acquire those shares.
Having ducked out of the stock for couple of months by flagging a 20p spread on the book, Cantor are now much more active an in amongst the action so, seems reasonable to conclude they have an instruction from someone.

The company does not need to do anything with its equity structure whatsoever, imo.

If you want to invest, buy the shares in the market. Simple as that & let's please keep it as simple as that.

[klosters65] 20/8/2020 14:11

12 acres of fruit trees in Portugal will not buy you that no of shares.

[gold finger 1] 20/8/2020 14:09

I would love to know who the seller, or sellers are and who the buyer is.
I don't believe its PI's one bit.
This has been going on for months now.
Could it be Reza? Selling a few million to let in those fund manager?
He owns such a lot he has to sell some one day.
It would not look bad either if he was to notify the market at the same time news that he sold to a few wealth funds.
It is clear we need to split the shares to get more shares in circulation here.

[c0lin1] 20/8/2020 14:05

no chance he's made over 150% since leaving

[baddeal] 20/8/2020 13:58

Could have been a well known investor selling land to get back into aaz.........

[kingyon1] 20/8/2020 13:20

Is it Warren?

[king suarez] 20/8/2020 12:57

Just seen a 225k (£351k) trade from late yesterday show up on the LSE site - that's quite an unusually large size trade for AAZ?

[brasso3] 20/8/2020 12:46

Has the USD already ran out of steam?

[2sporrans] 20/8/2020 12:45

Just a passing thought on cashflow and Q3 in particular.

We know AAZ is relying on stockpile feed considerably; the intention being to
process enough to make up enough of the H1 prod. deficit to keep the 2020 GE target
honest.

We've been here before, ironically during H1 [and most of Q3] of 2017, when main pit and Gadir re-modelling took place and Ugur was going through V.fast track development. Will AAZ delight once again with the speed/efficacy of their new East side underground development/production?
Whatever, the stockpile feed back in '17 was a lot poorer than the high grade feed available for Q3/Q4 2020. It was low grade, copper rich, sulphide.
AAZ fed it through the flotation process to remove the copper [and some gold] before
processing through the AL [and or HL] to produce dore.
[At some time they also did the reverse but I'm a little hazy on just when].
Anyway, even with the low grade/sulphide/coppery feed they ended up producing a tolerably good amount of gold and that debt was paid down just fine from the ample cashflow.

So, the Q3 2020 situation looks a fair bit better than the q1-3 2017 in terms of
gold production volume, especially dore.
Instead of Ugur coming on, we have the new UG mine [or the new East extension to it, if one prefers] but plenty of HG [av. 2.8 g/t from memory] stockpile feed instead of that low G, coppery lot.
And the margin is huge in comparison.
Back then what was the POG average?
Can't have been much above $1250/oz, if at all.
And the AISC was above $800/oz, maybe over $850 without checking....for H1 2017.
[It fell to $616 with Ugur feeding.]
So h1 2017 margin maybe $400/oz, $450 best.
Q3 2020 margin if $1900 pog/ $650 AISC => op. margin of $1250.

What's not to like about that?

If the share price falls over 20p per $100 of POG drop, the relative value is clearly enhanced
so long as gold production keeps coming, even 90% of target.
Even a 15p/sp per $100 POG drop looks decidedly share price value enhancing if the steady state production model just keeps going at current target level over 5 year view.
Taking to an absurd extreme, [for 2020-21] $500 drop in POG for 75p lower sp, looks a great buy to me. $1400[+] POG and $750 margin for a market cap of $85-mn. op. C/f still ~$40-mn after the Azerzi 12.75% take. Enough to sustain 8c divi.

Methinks the cashflow will win out here and these dips are to be bought.

[klosters65] 20/8/2020 12:38

Are you Cinoib in disguise ?

[wanobi] 20/8/2020 12:27

aha, very interesting Brasso :-), many thanx, cheers Wan :-)

Reminder to myself, AAZ, neww flow, coming up,,,,
By End of Q3: New JORC Reserves & Reports
+/- 16th September 2020 Interim Results

Cheers
Wan :-)

[brasso3] 20/8/2020 12:25

Alasdair Macleod
@MacleodFinance
·
21m
I'm told that refiners are concentrating on satisfying demand for gold and some of them have even stopped refining silver. Massive shortages arising due to ongoing buying of SLV and no new bullion available!

[bonio10000] 20/8/2020 12:20

Maybe AAZ can use the money to buy farmland in the highlands.

[gold finger 1] 20/8/2020 11:54

I will be looking to buy a load more here after the results are out in sept.
Well who will want to hold a company's stock that is going to show massive profit and yet another increase in divi.
I have never seen such madness.

[beaujolly] 20/8/2020 11:39

B3
Well played on DDDD but 300p is only a 237% increase :)

[brasso3] 20/8/2020 11:19

Wan

There is a nice gap on the DDDD chart around 300p. :)

[wanobi] 20/8/2020 09:29

Jim Rogers

Cheers
Wan :-)

[gutterhead] 20/8/2020 08:58

JB
We all know who you mean 😂

[wanobi] 20/8/2020 08:45

I did have for an hour or so yesterday beau, but, it resolved itself and has been fine since, cheers Wan :-)