Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[ptolemy] 17/8/2020 10:26

Thanks for the constructive comments. Anyone care to comment about AAZ being overvalued based on Price/Book ratio and PEG ratio? I read it a week or two ago and can no longer recall the source.

[thomas11] 17/8/2020 10:01

Interesting comments about going polymetalic, before Ugur was discovered an interview with Bill and Steve they stated that they anticipated that the copper/gold split would be 50/50 going forward.

If we add Zinc/Moly into the mix I suspect we will need additional capex. To get the equipment to process the ore.


Looking forward to the JORC estimates which are due Q3.

Excellent post 2SP

[bleepy] 17/8/2020 09:56

And we have the finest board of directors managing Aaz who whole heartily promote shareholder value.

Just the best in the business, for quality, innovation, design through to production.

[callmebwana] 17/8/2020 09:49

2SP. Thank for taking the time.
Much appreciated.
ATB

[bleepy] 17/8/2020 09:29

Great post 2s.

[goldrush] 17/8/2020 09:25

2sp

Well put together and summarises the situation very well indeed.

Let me express our Thanks for this from all the BB. 😀😀

[2sporrans] 17/8/2020 09:22

All straight off top of my head Klosters.
Dunno if that's good or a trifle sad.

As Matt said a few times earlier this year, 2020 is one more of transition.
2021 and 2022 hopefully more of arrival.

[klosters65] 17/8/2020 09:12

You must have spent a lot of time putting that together.Just want to say thank you. It gives me confidence.

[swallowsflysouth] 17/8/2020 09:08

dddd doing well, over 5% up

[avsome1968] 17/8/2020 08:59

Looks like Cobra finally sorted their drill date, accumulate a few cob shares over the last 3 months in reasonable profit now certainly looks a interesting play.

Cobra Resources plc

("Cobra" or the "Company")

Hagstrom Drilling Equity Agreement Update

Cobra is an exploration and mining company focussed on the evaluation of its prized Wudinna Gold Project. With 6 tenements covering 1,928sqkm, Wudinna is located in the prime Central Gawler Craton Province ("CGC") of South Australia.

The Gawler Craton has been home to some of the largest IOCG discoveries in Australia including Olympic Dam, as well as Prominent Hill and Carrapateena. Cobra's Wudinna tenements contain extensive orogenic gold mineralisation and are characterised by potentially open-pitable, high grade gold intersections, with ready access to nearby infrastructure, as well as 3 potential IOCG targets.

Cobra currently has over 22 orogenic gold prospects, with grades of between 16g/t up to 37.8g/t outside of the current JORC resource, as well as 1 copper-gold prospect, and 3 IOCG targets. Leading edge multi-element geochemical analysis is being systematically applied to define the orientation and continuity of the mineralisation ahead of drilling, significantly reducing risk.

[2sporrans] 17/8/2020 08:59

Ptolemy

Responding to your request for more critical comment wrt the sp,
here's my tuppence worth:

On the production score, one ought to factor in the short but sweet episode of
the Ugur [1] mine, production life from H2 2017 until end of 2020.

The unexpected boost this plentiful, quality feed from Ugur gave to somewhat static [dore] production from the main open pit + Gadir fueled a period of share price outperformance, bearing in mind that the share price had been held back somewhat during H1 2017, pending it's ko [Sept 2017] and the re-opening of the Main Pit and Gadir which had both been closed end of 2016 to enable
crucial re-modelling of their developments which also led to higher and cheaper production over H2 2017 until present.
The huge $50-mn investment in the [dore] AL plant 2013 [to 2015] hit payback time and the debt burden that accompanied that and other astute investments [flotation, mains elec, larger tailings lake and loads more] was rapidly paid down as AAZ was transformed into a cash cow.
The low AISC [got as low as ~$540/oz 2019], greatly helped by the Ugur feed [oxide, soft rock, easy dig and near plant] had fattened margin as well as enabling the plant to operate something not way removed from capacity.

Anyways, it took 'the market' a while to spot this transformation from debt paydown fixation to cash cow.
The advent of a generous maiden dividend in 2018 and a 25% of FCF payout policy did much to being it to the attention of new investors.

For some time now it has been obvious to anyone who has wised up on Ugur [1] that it's part in the partee was waning and any gold production beyond 2020 would be a bonus.

So, basically the near term production model has reverted to pretty much the 2016
version:
Main Pit [70-80%] - mostly low grade feed
Gadir [15-25%] - high grade
Gosha [5%] - high grade

All in the Hardman report if you want to delve into this.

Basically, we have a brand new advent coming with the main pit as it is heading
underground as well as the open excavations continuing.
So there is a HG ore mine extending, down dip from Gadir West portal, heading East {SE] towards the main pit and now a new HG mine extending, down dip from East portal, heading West [NW] towards Gadir.
A beautiful symmetry!

Also, warming up on the touchline, the 5 new prospects for new production over the 2022-25 timeframe.
Of these, Avshancli - zone1, clearly holds the most promise for gold dore production.
Can it substitute well for Ugur [1]?
Well that story is WIP.
Gilar is the other new gold prospect; looks as if it may be a small but HG commercial mine.
Gosha extension [not 1 of the 5] also holds some promise.

Of the other 3 new prospects:
Avshancli 2+3 - Copper and Silver in great main.
Ugur [2] [Ugur Deep] - underground - Ditto. [Cheap easy side of hill passage access].
Zefer - a mixed bag....some way down...and yet to be explored enough to say much.

One point of the above is that the deeper porphyry zone anticipated by many here
may be becoming exposed and tapped into by the underground extensions and indeed at Avshancli where the relevant rock strata tilt up to or close to the surface.
{Hence the importance of the mooted PSA Contract Area extensions to the North of the Gedabek CA - Zehmet prospect and another i can't recall name of at this instant.]

I think the contribution from the above [+ve or -ve] as news drips in to the share price will become of increasing significance going forward.
I don't think there's much in the share price for any of these yet.

Another point - raised by Stevea171 - is the polymetalic production.
Well, by value, it's been 85-90% gold by value; the great majority of the balance being copper, though Silver significant.
I don't think this accounts for a lot of the recent AAZ share price underperformance though.
A lot less than the exhaustion of Ugur for sure.
After all, take HOC [a good bb and excellent comments from you Steve]....
It's arguably a 50/50 silver/gold producer.
Maybe 40% silver past year or so?
The relatively moribund silver price of past several years has fired up a lot 2020 which helps HOC tremendously; well it would help even more were it's 3 main Andean mines not all hit by Covid shutdowns for much of Q2.
But putting all this to one side, it is very probable that if the main expansion story for Gedabek/Ordubad/Gosha 2025-30 will be underpinned by large scale porphyry
discovery/development/production...then yes, AAZ's future in Azerbaijan will be one of a decidedly polymetalic producer:
Gold/Copper/Silver/Zinc/Molybdenum.....
Typically, porphyry belts have the gold nearer to top, followed by copper/silver, then more and more zinc - given those 4 are present. As at Ugur.
But i'm dubious this accounts for much of the share price action for 2020, to date and to come...

Rapid progress of the new Gedabek u/g tunnel to access development ore production [late?] Q4 will be a key determinant of both AAZ's ability to meet it's 2020 production target, or close...AND even more importantly imho, to enhance the 2021 target.

edit:

Along with observation the production in now [for now] reverting to pretty much the
mine outputs as of 2016, here is the AISC for that year:

"The Company's all in sustaining cost ("AISC") per ounce of gold produced reduced to $616 in 2016 compared to $858 in 2015. This resulted in an operating profit of $11.7 million in 2016 compared to an operating loss of $3.2 million in 2015." [From FY 2016 RNS]

Note that the mains elec. supply commenced only in Nov. 2016 and the water purification plant had yet to go live, as did in Q3 2017, about the same time - ironically - as Ugur commenced production.

This augurs well for the AISC that may be achieved for 2020 and 2021.
Although it will likely be above $600/oz, hopefully nearer that than $700.
Even with $700 AISC, the op. margins are going to be over $1,000/oz, conceivably as high as $1,200/oz!!

[odsjp] 17/8/2020 08:58

---> Ilostthelot
At this rate you will be the top of the leader board on Friday!

Why is all the interest in Syme with just one contract with inventory monetisation? I have had a quick look at it but the company is now valued at £160M. What am I missing?

[wanobi] 17/8/2020 08:53

many thanx 2P, did wonder, will be watching to see, cheers Wan :-)

[wanobi] 17/8/2020 08:53

wowzer ilost, great work :-) brilliant and so pleasing to see :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[ilostthelot] 17/8/2020 08:44

syme up another 50%.

Nearly a 5 bagger for me in 4 days. 👀

[2prsimo] 17/8/2020 08:02

finnCap + Turner Pope = Placing

[wanobi] 17/8/2020 07:38

CORA - 17 August 2020

Cora Gold Limited ('Cora', 'Cora Gold' or 'the Company')
Change of Nomad and Joint Broker
Cora Gold Limited, the West African focused gold company, is pleased to announce the appointment of finnCap Ltd ("finnCap") as its Nominated Adviser and joint broker with immediate effect.
Turner Pope Investments will remain joint broker alongside finnCap.

wonder is this means anything or nowt!!

Cheers
Wan :-)

[wanobi] 17/8/2020 07:36

PUR - good news, should see the stock rise today :-) Cheers Wan :-)

POG - news,,, is it good?,,,, I've no idea, cheers Wan :-)

[wanobi] 17/8/2020 07:35

AVCT - that RNS just shows how crazy all this is right now LOL, GLA Holders, Cheers Wan :-)

[wanobi] 17/8/2020 07:32

Good morning all, Good luck and good health to you all today :-) Cheers wan :-)

Spot Au - 1947
Spot Ag - 26.89
Brent - 45.12

:-)

many thanx bb2, let's see how it plays out, cheers Wan :-)

all - good luck with your stock picks this week :-) :-)

I'm hoping to improve a bit LOL LOL :-) :-),,,,,,, however, mustn't beat myself up too much as Wan's second investing birthday only just reached,,, he now has 2 years of experience LOL LOL

[bamboo2] 16/8/2020 23:33

Wan, it's unconfirmed. Eod close below neckline [red] is confirmation.

All chart pattern target prices are dominated by adjacent horizontal/historical support or resistance.

[wanobi] 16/8/2020 22:34

great chart bb2,,, so JSE is now at a critical point, are you expecting it fall back now?? thanx.....

What Is a Head And Shoulders Pattern?
A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that appears as a baseline with three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that signal, with varying degrees of accuracy, that an upward trend is nearing its end.

Cheers
Wan :-)

[wanobi] 16/8/2020 22:29

great post pogue, very interesting,,, timing these things is so difficult & I see it's gone up to 120 in the past so we'll each have to take a view on when to act I guess :-)

Cheers
Wan :-)

[chestnuts] 16/8/2020 22:29

Matt

Just had a quick look at a bit more detail on the chart and it could be on a 4th wave and could bottom at 134p the chart shows a possible small 38.2 to 61.8 % a golden section which in turn another golden section with the share price rising to 242p ish


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com




free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[wanobi] 16/8/2020 22:24

you're very welcome chris1, cheers Wan :-)