Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[big7ime] 29/1/2018 20:26

Could be right ttn2, prob going to be lots of stop losses at 19p, so could see vol increase there
Then it's back to 22 ?

[big7ime] 29/1/2018 18:50

There is some disconnect between the rebound in the price of oil and smaller oilers
It shouldn't matter too much about production not being really steady or increasing each and every mth, the profit being made now compared with six mths ago is much much greater and this is not reflected in the sp
I watch many shares, and most of the smaller oil stocks are in the same boat.
Sentiment will change, but maybe it's poo that needs to be consistently high before we get the recovery
Remember Share prices are often nonsensical, the argument that it is a perfect market That the market is always right etc is absolute rubbish.
I always look for a disconnect aswell as future prospect before investing

[thetoonarmy2] 29/1/2018 17:56

How manipulated is AMER? See the you tube video about shareprice manipulation very interesting.

[acv74] 29/1/2018 17:51

Al101uk, just to clarify, in order to be legal under the companies act ya dividend must be paid out of accumulated reserves since the company started. You are though right that it doesn't have to be be supported by current year EPS, just by accumulated profits.Our distributable reserves look like they are 26million at 31/12/16, plus possibly the merger reserve is distributable.

[meneither2] 29/1/2018 17:21

Nearly 30p a year ago, no wonder we're gloomy

[dodge city] 29/1/2018 16:49

Plenty to like about this company apart from the falling share price.

[blackdown2] 29/1/2018 16:35

Piddly volume and a bit of selling and share price goes down. Too many theories around at the moment, especially from the doom and gloom brigade.

Plenty to like about this company and the share price is not at fair value at the moment (for whatever reason).

[ken298] 29/1/2018 15:52

Pay a dividend ? More share options more likely !

This Board like rewarding themselves not the Shareholders.

[rollthedice] 29/1/2018 15:35

Sp (looking like <19p is imminent) very disappointing given recent rise had seemed to have broken us out of the low trading range... nope back to the doldrums again :(

Question is can I be bothered to take advantage and buy this time around when there's so many other shares enjoying positive sentiment / rises?!

[al101uk] 29/1/2018 15:07

acv74,

One of my criteria for investing would be that dividends are sustainable in the longer term, but they don't have to be fully covered over any 12 month period. Look at Carillon, BP (during the oil price collapse), Inmarsat now... one of these things doesn't look like the others ;-)

Some management teams like to increase leverage within their company by paying out money in dividends, others have longer term plans that support the dividend in the longer term. It's all about corporate finance and is fully covered by Aswath Damoradan in his lectures:



(haven't checked the link properly but I think this is the one that shows how share price is affected by debt/equity mix).

The company claims to be fully funded for both capex and opex at $45, the oil price is and has been in excess of that for some considerable period of this financial year. The company has projected a lot of production growth over the next twelve months which improves the economics further. In my view declaring a maiden dividend at results, assuming they are in line with expectations is a declaration of managements confidence in their ability to deliver on their goals. It's a statement of intent to drive shareholder value above all else and it will be rewarded by investors paying a price for shares more closely aligned with the underlying business.

It could be argued that not directly returning some value to shareholders despite the lack of investor interest is a damning statement against the current management. Either they are hedging risk unnecessarily or they are misleading their shareholders regarding likely future cash flows.

I just think we're sat in a place right now where they need to do something, I'm not asking for 100% pay out, I'm asking for a token gesture which I would be happy to see cut should the oil price collapse or a major purchase become a little too tempting.

They could even make a statement of intent, as other companies have done, regards percentage payouts of free cash flow.

Rollthedice has just made my point perfectly... the market doesn't believe in the company, they don't believe the company will return value to shareholders, so management need to do something to prove them wrong.

[philwalker36] 29/1/2018 14:47

I'd most like to see steadily and consistently growing volume. The only way this share is going to be taken seriously is a good 6 or so months of consistent month on month growth. Doesn't have to be anything other than uninterrupted straight line.

Then I think this share will start to be taken seriously and attract a share price that matches its potential.

Any revenues from any potential sale should be used to bolster that aim. Then we get to excellent profitability year on year and can pay a dividend year on year.

IMHO DYOR etc.

[bryet] 29/1/2018 14:44

Month end figures important they need to show an increase on last months time to show the company can deliver or it's back to 16p.

[acv74] 29/1/2018 13:49

al101uk - I agree that cash flow is vital to dividends but surely the company needs retained earnings for a dividend to be legal. Retained earnings at 31/12/16 look like they were £26m, so some scope for dividends depending on what the results for 2017 look like.

[davwall] 29/1/2018 13:44

Jaldi, jaldi means get a bleedin' move on - well sort of...

[thegreatgeraldo] 29/1/2018 13:02

Quite a bit depends on how the geology at CPO-5 compares to block 34 directly to the north.

Lots of Plat wells for not a lot of production...

[charlieeee] 29/1/2018 12:57

There are so many reasons for selling CPO-5, not Plat.

For starters

We are not operator on CPO-5, therefore not in control.
We own 30% and would not be able to buy out ONGC Videsh.
Our OBA pipeline gives better margins.
We are just due to drill Plat for the N sands, heavy oil, but lots of it.
The Llanos basin has already been highly explored and exploited: it would be difficult to expand significantly there.
The strategic plan is to concentrate on the under developed Putumayo (and probably spill over into Ecuador with the same known geology).

CPO-5 is a gem, but not the bigger picture.

Having said that, back to back wells on CPO-5 (Indico and Sol are reasonably close together)is superb news. Perhaps our chairman has been whispering sweet nothings, in Urdu of course, in those Indian owners' ears?.

[lucyp00p] 29/1/2018 12:52

What about selling the BoD? Haha silly me, nobody would want them

[bigwavedave] 29/1/2018 12:49

What about selling Fenix (anyone remember that?) or Paraguay? Both redundant as far as AMER is concerned. I assume no interest, so far.

[thegreatgeraldo] 29/1/2018 12:39

Surely if the company's going to sell anything it should get rid of Plat, not CPO??

[the drewster] 29/1/2018 12:31

A share buy back with the excess free cashflow at $60+/oil Vs $45/oil projections, then cancel those bought during the exercise, might finish off any over zealous seller... if CPO-5 is indeed sold, then a return in some form or other to shareholders would have to be seriously considered as they already stated fully funded at $45 oil.

[meneither2] 29/1/2018 12:28

I agree, we need to be demonstrating growing reserves more than a big lump of cash that will be spent accumulating replacement reserves over how many years. We've all been waiting that long already!

[bryet] 29/1/2018 12:06

I don't want us to sell CPO-5 better to keep it long term than sell it for a quick buck which will no doubt go into the director's pockets.

[davwall] 29/1/2018 11:35

If there was a penny dividend awarded, the share price would probably drop three...

[davwall] 29/1/2018 11:33

If CPO-5 were to be sold, Amer must surely produce a plan for best use of the funds received. The sale would be a double-edged sword in that a significant amount of value relating to oil in the ground would be removed from the capital assets and replaced by cash in the bank. Ecuador seems to be one possibility, albeit total production is currently capped (but at a higher figure than OPEC decreed). Any thoughts..?