Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[charlieeee] 25/1/2018 10:55

Perhaps, RI,you are unaware that River and Mercantile have been steadily increasing their stake?

The last holdings RNS from them indicated that they had crossed the next threshold, having purchased some 9 million shares and now up to 6.3% and a holding of 77m,

There been no other reported changes to major shareholdings recently, other than the directors buys back in the autumn.

The exit target of 7000 BOPD was reached and the timing of such substantial production is excellent: at todays POO, net operating return will have gone over the $50 per barrel.

[responsible investor] 25/1/2018 10:45

The reason is simple. The Board has not produced the results which have been indicated in the past. And institutional support has evaporated. We need a new Board especially at the Chairman level.

[blackdown2] 25/1/2018 10:32

Meanwhile, the share price languishes at a level well below that of a year ago, and for reasons that are a mystery to most of the posters on this board.

[charlieeee] 25/1/2018 10:24

The comment by GC on the N sands was reasonably positive: he corrected Malcy to say that wells would be drilled in H1.

It is an extension on environmental issues for which we are waiting, submitted last August and expected in December.

The comment on that was

"well down the road with the Colombians" so as you say, we should expect some announcement on that very shortly, to enable them to get on with the civil works.

The Colombians "might get their heads round" Vetra drilling Put 8 "from a pad not in Put 8".

The tender for the Indico works will have been awarded by now or very shortly (max 45 days from mid Dec.)

So we could have a 3 horse race of Amer's own Platinillo drill, running against the operators of Put 8 (Vetra) and CPO-5 (ONGC Videsh).

[davwall] 25/1/2018 09:44

With a comprehensive drilling schedule previously outlined by the company for this year I, like others, feel there should be an update imminently. Forward planning is the key for any successful business and informing shareholders of progress should form part of that process. Drilling the N Sand was supposed to start this quarter, but we are almost through January with nothing evident by word or deed. GC referred in his interview to the N Sand happening in H1, so there already seems a time slip being hinted at. Why not tell investors what is due and what isn't. They must know.
The 'slow' Indians work at light speed compared to AMER.

[juuunx2] 25/1/2018 00:08

Yes Charlie I firmly believe this is the year. Figures on balance sheet won't lie. Oil up again tonight

[charlieeee] 24/1/2018 22:36

Both the 5k and 4k are guaranteed minimums, not maximums and we have already exceeded the 5k minimum with a peak of 10k back in autumn: December, of course, demonstrates the point perfectly.

. Average daily throughput was 6,152 BO during the Period.
. Peak daily throughput was 7,045 BO during the Period.

Bearing in mind that we ourselves pay $1.09 for the privilege of our oil being transported from HR all the way to the coast, what tariff was given for use of the OBA by 3rd parties and what part was played by the knowledge of the 5K minimum, which has always been in the public domain?

Do we actually have any figures or timelines, set out as a target by the BOD or has it always been something that might happen at some stage,but very secondary to our own usage (which, at $10 per barrel has a really quick payback on the 18m capex).

As far as "trusting" the BOD is concerned, we did get the exit rate of 7000 and increased production could not have been better timed. Compared with many outfits, our monthly reports bring transparency: perhaps they will fall short of their targets of 12k and 20k BOPD, but at least they are hungry and ambitious enough to chase down worthwhile growth. On the acquisition front, they have delivered massive acreage for no money,including some excellent prospects: in that most important respect, they have delivered spectacularly better than any reasonable "wish list". They have proved wise stewards through exceptionally difficult times and that merits both trust and respect.

Furthermore, AMER is now a mixed bag, with ONGC Videsh in control of CPO-5: it is the Indians who need to deliver and to date, they seem slow and careful: certainly not untrustworthy.

Going forward, investors are starting to see the strategy rolling out and many believe that, funded by $300k net operating return per day, 2018 will be Amer's year of growth, both production and reserves.

[big7ime] 24/1/2018 22:29

Agree that directors need to get their act together As has been well debated here. Shareholders may well have been frustrated at timescales etc and exited but that does not fully explain the valuation considering progress and oil price. It is unfortunately typical of PIs to give up, selling at the worst possible time. The share price will imo be at least double today's price (all things equal) in short order, once it becomes clear that poo is not going to give up its gains and especially if it is announced RH has cleared. Once sentiment returns to the sector these are going to be in high demand and I am sure will be a multi bagger once again.
Keep the faith, I think patience will eventually be rewarded.
Oil up again tonight, Brent now firmly over $70
GL all holders

[lucyp00p] 24/1/2018 19:07

Applying linear and logical thought to the Amerisur share price is dangerous. Some element of the historical share price was based on the OBA delivering high capacity multi sourced export volumes and not simply a multiple of the poo and production. I no longer believe investors trust the board to deliver on their wish list and will only trust reality. The latest RNS is bullish on the 9k volume, but GC renewed the 20k forecast in his interview. He didn't say how the balance would be shipped, it can't all be from Mariposa.

[big7ime] 24/1/2018 17:49

Poo has more than doubled its low a yr ago
Sp here therefore is ridiculous as production is much higher
Kept low by RH selling Maybe. It's the only explanation.
So i ask myself, is he right in the head?

The co needs to find out if he's sold a lot more and release a statement

I've seen this before when a persistent seller keeps a share price back, other investors get paranoid sell make things worse, only to shoot up on news of the sale.
This should surely be in the 40s now

[bigwavedave] 24/1/2018 16:01

charlieee - fair point. Anyway, if it's worth bidding for, good. If they keep it, good.

[charlieeee] 24/1/2018 15:13

The two interviews seem reasonably consistent.

JW (responding to Malcy's statement I am told it is not for sale"

"certainly not for sale at the moment"

ie. not prior to the Mariposa LTT or the 2nd well, the up dip Indico about which he seemed excited.

GC was also very positive "very optimistic valuations of the block by a couple of analysts" and "a lot of people interested in what comes out of Indico.

Both obviously accept that Indico results are a prerequisite to a sale of the 30%, but GC much clearer that it is not part of our core area.

[bigwavedave] 24/1/2018 14:32

Back to GC's interview, where he appeared to hedge it when asked whether AMER was open to a sale of its 30% share of CPO-5. In John Wardle's interview (on the website) last year, he ruled it out. Not sure where that leaves us but I guess it all depends...

[bryet] 24/1/2018 14:31

Like watching paint dry will anything move the share price up to a reasonable level?.

[juuunx2] 24/1/2018 12:39

For once I agree with you Lucy

[davwall] 24/1/2018 10:53

His pockets are sewn up..

[chopper harris1] 24/1/2018 10:34

Could do with a couple more Director purchases to add a bit of momentum. Does this geezer Clarke ever put his hand in his own pocket to buy shares in AMER?

[davwall] 24/1/2018 10:25

Is there a dog's breakfast forming in the charts..?

[lucyp00p] 24/1/2018 10:18

I'm still waiting (sadly confidently) for 18

[currypasty] 24/1/2018 09:53

where's marnewton and his charts.. am I safe adding a few more, or is the chart showing a 'pointy' head and shoulders?

[quidnunc] 24/1/2018 09:46

Kaos3, its there, plain as mustard on a sausage.

However, without some decent momentum its akin to nearly sporting a chubby whilst viewing Kate Humble dipping nekkid into a freezing lochan......a nice thought that's going nowhere very fast!

As for the rns, I'm sure that there'll be affirmations of peace, co-operation and a joint vision of economic prosperity alongside pictures of handshakes and shoulder clasping. However the time delay between the last hurrah and any actual improvements taking place will likely continue to be glacial.

AIMNSHO
Regards to all

Q.

[mikett1] 23/1/2018 22:15

hxxp://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/frackers-could-make-more-money-than-ever-in-2018-if-they-dont-blow-it-1516536000

If Shalers do the sensible thing and actually try to make shareholder value, plus with the Aramco IPO upcoming, I can't see price of oil dropping for a long while.

Just need amerisur to have some uninterrupted growth!

[seball] 23/1/2018 21:35

This has to rerate now with current price of Brent.Good luck all

[bigwavedave] 23/1/2018 21:19

...and Brent now a few cents over $70.

[westmoreland lad] 23/1/2018 12:13

Oil Boosted by IMF Growth Expectations
Date : 23--01--2018 @ 11:40
Source Dow Jones News

Oil Boosted by IMF Growth Expectations

LONDON--Oil prices were buoyed Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund raised its forecasts for global economic growth.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up 0.41% at $69.31 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures were 0.47% higher at $63.87 a barrel.
The global economy should grow by 3.9% a year in 2018 and 2019, up 0.2% from a previous estimate--driven in large part by the recently approved U.S. tax-code changes, the IMF said Monday.
"It is not a far-fetched thought to expect global oil demand and oil-demand growth to follow suit shortly," Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates Ltd., said in response to the IMF estimates.