Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[lucyp00p] 02/6/2017 16:33

Unrisked reserves are those which have already been developed by drilling and production and thus have a very reasonable certainty of being produced. Risked reserves are either probable or possible reserves depending upon the amount of uncertainty involved and basically represent poorly developed or undeveloped oil & gas fields. 

[lucyp00p] 02/6/2017 16:28

Buy of 9,964 @ 24.97 was me. Had some loose change in the account, opportunity too good to miss again?

[al101uk] 02/6/2017 15:55

" a probabilistic analysis is usually applied, which employs an iterative evaluation of the range of variables to construct a probability distribution. This is then plotted and the median and range boundary values derived."

Yeah, that's what I thought ;-)

Take unrisked resource estimates and throw them in a dig hole never to look at them again as they are practically meaningless.

[fadilz] 02/6/2017 15:36

slides 3 and here give a good definition of Resources, Reserves, and the various grades therof

[eddie_yates] 02/6/2017 14:58

Can someone please explain what "The block has unrisked resources of 142.3MMBO" means??
This is what was quoted in the annual report for CPO-5 block.

[foiledagain] 02/6/2017 12:21

Whilst oil price is of interest I do not believe for one minute that explains the amerisur share price
Amerisur have demonstrated they can use low oil price to their advantage and may do again so oil price considerations negative effect is not necessarily valid.

In my opinion the share price here for some time has had other things dictating it

[big7ime] 02/6/2017 11:26

It's just the price of oil, it's down 3% today so what do you expect?
I don't expect oil to remain this low for long, and wouldn't rule out OPEC surprising with a prod cut after all in Nov if not before as I'm sure they are presently just testing the market

[oilandgas1] 02/6/2017 11:23

I believe that the share price with the recent good news would have kicked on if POO had not dropped by 7%+.

Timing is everything .. but when the oil price recovers (above 53$) I expect the share price to break 30p+

[dsmith57] 02/6/2017 11:03

Something just does not feel right here. Think I'll step out for now with a modest profit.

[fadilz] 02/6/2017 10:50

adam - lol, have a rec.

al101uk will say it's in the probability of occurrence. I say, I'm here because I believe enough of it will happen. My 'wait and see' is an acknowledgement of uncertainty.

[adam] 02/6/2017 10:46

What is the NPV of "Let's wait and see." ?

[fadilz] 02/6/2017 10:39

and yes, CPO-5 has potential to be transformative - just how much awaits further info. So does Put-12, and some others. Let's wait and see.

[fadilz] 02/6/2017 10:38

I guess our posts crossed again :o)

Don't disagree with your sentiments - but I go by evidence as regards AMER, and feel comfortable that I have, for the moment, a way of explaining it's share price In case of AMER, it's NPV, and the dominant influence has been poo

Each to their own.

F

[jonnycash1] 02/6/2017 10:36

'As I've said previously, I think management have a lot riding on CPO-5 because otherwise we're just grinding out circa 5k bopd for the foreseeable future.'

Correct.

[foiledagain] 02/6/2017 10:26

Fadilz. No its not simples, as you exclude everything else.

AIM is not a level playing field, never has been.

Look at placings....coincidence how the share price inevitably crumbles beforehand?

[fadilz] 02/6/2017 10:25

FA our posts crossed and I had not read your second - I did not meant to sound sharp in my reply. In response to 'NPV changes daily' - this is not about day to day trading, I take a view of oil price - at present $45-50, and on that basis the model prediction is static until the next piece of news.

al101uk, if 'other things' are no longer equal, then of course the model breaks. In that case, I may adjust by taking a new baseline.

I can't talk to inside information, but the truth is that the price collapsed during a period when the drop in oil took profit per barrel from $70 to perhaps $10, and now back up to $30 for plat. So the drop in share price was in my mind inevitable, in hindsight. Should we have predicted $40 oil? I kind of did, but did not act. I kind of think now that oil will remain at 50-60 for the medium term, and this is a slight improvement on now.

re plat, I agree that decline in production is a concern. In the AGM presentation it appears to be about 20% pa (slides 12-13). From the RNS that talked about well reconditioning this decline appears to be because of wax (paraffin). This could affect throughput of the OBA, depending on the temperature at which the wax comes out of solution. Although there are fixes to this they are costly. This is my main concern. There has been tacit acknowledgement by the company since they have pubished the information I describe, but I would like a better account given. There I agree with you.

Your valuation includes expectations of future NPV and associated risks and this leads you to a value today for future potential. That's fine, but too complex and too many uncertainties for me. Your approach is classically correct. Mine looks at potential future values, but I don't ascribe probabilities to them. I also assume that much of this this is already in the price, so that all I need to model is the relative effect of change. I do reassure myself that these future potential NPV increases are there and are realistic, and that management will somehow sort it out. This is how I see future value. My average price for AMER is currently 44p, so I am under water - but I blame poo.

[al101uk] 02/6/2017 09:48

I don't equate value with share price. As a value focused investor I see them as two distinctly different things with varying degrees of correlation over time. In that respect I agree with FA. I try to use opportunities where the share price has tracked lower than the value to buy and make money.

Fadilz model might have worked for three years, but my belief is that the correlation will break down at some point and we will be given credit for the companies prospects. I think Fadilz model working over this period of time is actually evidence of certain people having knowledge not available to the general market.

An example of this would be the pipeline bottleneck and the production issues at Plat. Why, when PI's were looking at the commissioning of the pipeline and several thousand barrels of increased production coming on stream, did the share price stay static? Why did RH sell in to the pipeline news? Everyone here thought he was crazy... it seems more likely that he knew there were issues, as did others and so we remained priced for current production only.

I'm not talking much about the OBA cluster because I'm not sure there is a terrific amount of value there any more, at least not within my shortened investment time frame. As I've said previously, I think management have a lot riding on CPO-5 because otherwise we're just grinding out circa 5k bopd for the foreseeable future.

[aceuk] 02/6/2017 09:30

It's done with companies whatever their size - there was a big trade (single allegedly although there were a few multi-millions around it) of over 750 million shares of Lloyds Banking Group the other day.

[fadilz] 02/6/2017 08:38

FA, read my posts (and al101uk). The share price follows a logic. If a seller is dominating the price, he is following the same logic. Simples.

[foiledagain] 02/6/2017 08:32

fadilz. But the NPV changes every single day, and on that basis the share price moves in the same direction every day...but we know it doesn't and it hasn't.

Your comments are reasonable for a mature producing company, but not for any takeover situation, nor for companies described as exploration and production, where the P1 and all the other reserves and the potential reserves are more important than any current production and where the short term production over longer term prospects can be a distinct advantage to such a move.

If that were the case Explorers yet to achieve production, might be valued at 0.

Then there is a massive advantage in share price manipulation and especially over a prolonged period even flying in the face of excellent news that fails to move the sp, because as you may know any bid price may reflect a large premium to the share price, but where that share price is so low as to make the premium on any bid not reflect the underlying value and potential value of the company.

[foiledagain] 02/6/2017 08:24

Johnny. If there's no seller why has there not been an RNS from RH after finishing up selling, which is all he is obliged to do if he decided to dispose of all his shares in one instruction to sell. Only acquirers of notifiable number of shares then have to inform the market if they have not exhausted his stock of shares and if there are others still to sell.

If there's no seller what happened to JPM's leveraged holdings over 5% threshold?

I do not believe its conspiracy theory, especially when Amerisur themselves had to go to the lengths of having the company register confirm a seller, but where that seller has no obligation to notify the market until his order is completed, if of course he is still selling, where the fact (not conspiracy) that he has not issued a holding RNS might suggest he hasn't finished.

It has been suggested by others at the AGM that RH did not wish to have a transaction whereby Amerisur assisted with the disposal in an orderly fashion as is often the situation with a large percentage holder choosing to dispose of their holding.

Personally I think others are involved to hold this share price firmly in a range and hope that before too long we might see why. So where are JPM's CFD's and other holdings these days? No RNS?

It is easy these days for any organisation or organisations with deep pockets to do whatever they want with a share price and especially with an AIM listed share.

[fadilz] 02/6/2017 08:20

jonnycash1 the share price of any stock is the result of buying and selling - on this we can all agree.

My assertion is that AMER share price (resulting from buying/selling), follows movement in the NPV, derived from *current* production, reserves, and profit. This observation has held true for the 3 years in which I have observed the stock. al101uk uses NPV as well, but works from first principles to get an absolute value, whereas I look at *change* which assumes all other factors remain unchanged.

The notion that some seller is vindictively pushing the price lower may be attractive to some, but by observation the movement in share price can be predicted from movement in NPV.

The movement from 20-21 to 25-26 is precisely predicted by the OBA cost reduction, and +7m reserves from the northern part of Plat, as I posted on the day of the announcement (plat-22). It has subsequently happened.

CPO-5 numbers aren't in, but on my assumptions it could add 3-4p taking us to 28-30p, assuming reserves, production, and costs of production are confirmed. Potential for much more over time depending on future plans, and just what has been discovered.

There are significant risks but the notion that we are going down the pan is where we part company. Climbing out more like. I see potential for a doubling in share price over the coming year, and a trebling over two - using recent company forecasts.

[charlieeee] 02/6/2017 08:13

Most up and coming oil stocks do not "trade on projected earnings over the next 12 months". Instead, they have a tendency to start pricing in growth expectation.

In this case, that means Pad 2 and Mariposa in the short term and to describe that as "years away" is disingenuous.

Then, of course, there is the rest of the capital program, largely not mentioned by anyone.

Without a doubt, Colombia is the current "go to" location and there is every possibility that our Indian partners (or their Chinese JV partners in Colombia) might see AMER's first mover position as attractive (particularly now with the CPO 5 cat half out of the bag).

Why not take your own advice and move on from a stock which you no longer hold and by the looks of it, with which you are not keeping up to speed on the detail?

[9barracuda] 02/6/2017 08:03

Hmmmm, and yet we see a slow but steady rise....