Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[tonyrelaxes] 06/6/2017 13:44

Although I don't see what's so difficult with the figures, they are not 'overdue' based on previous monthly reports.

Feb (Tu) figures - (Th) 9 March RNS
March (F) figures - (Tu) 4 April RNS
April (Su) figures - (Tu) 2 May RNS
May (W) figures -

But it looks like they prefer releasing them more promptly either leading up to AGMs or when showing increases.

Any guesses as to which?

[harrisun] 06/6/2017 13:37

Looks on the money

[adam] 06/6/2017 13:31

I bought quite heavily today. Apparently someone 'clearing their book'.

[big7ime] 06/6/2017 13:24

Is there supposed to be a set date then?

[lucyp00p] 06/6/2017 13:17

This company needs to wise up. Good news or bad, a monthly report is not something you announce and then ignore. Who cares if OBA numbers are down? Publish the bloody numbers otherwise the markets will assume the worst possible outcome and act accordingly.

[tonyrelaxes] 06/6/2017 12:02

Is RH subject to UK SE declaration rules?

An analysis of the initial reporting when initially building up holding(s) under his control suggested transactions should have been reported far earlier than we were informed. I guessed that was a 'benefit' of being non-resident - or beyond regulatory reach.

Not that my own non-residency has come into play - yet! ;-)

[paleje] 06/6/2017 11:42

Agree for what its worth. Wonder what the old rogue's got to say about HUR, he was about to upgrade his 100p target 'significantly' as it was 'way past its sell by' but look what's happened there:)

Now he's pushing LGO with its rock superstar dutchman CEO.

Malcy blows with the wind. Not saying either are rubbish just Malcy can be a bit liked the pied piper sometimes.

[bigwavedave] 06/6/2017 11:33

Malcy still beating the drum, for what it's worth. Says AMER is "big time undervalued now." About 4 mins in.

[sleveen] 06/6/2017 11:11

FA

Agreed debate isn't personal on this thread (usually)

OBA numbers tomorrow? may add further context to your deliberations.

[foiledagain] 06/6/2017 11:08

A101: in the main not a bad assessment. That's why its not personal with Fadilz and myself or with you and preferably not with anyone else.

Likewise when takeover values were considered different to establishing value on a pure production basis.

I value all informative posts/theories.

There's also gut feeling, and my gut feeling is this is being played with for reasons as yet unknown.

No RNS from major holdings either disposing or acquiring for a while.

No RNS at all from RH, let alone one to signify his selling has concluded.

No RNS from JPM when formerly they crossed a 5% threshold, but no longer figure in company shareholder list without any RNS of a reduction in the threshold.

Good news apparently ignored, giving all the hallmarks of something not quite right with the share price or something going on behind the scenes.

[al101uk] 06/6/2017 10:35

Market Risk - Elections, Brexit.
Sector Risk - Oil Price, Solar, Wind etc.
Country Risk - Political climate, terrorism
Company Risk - Share price manipulation, Management performance etc.

All factors in pricing the stock.

Negative attitudes towards company risk have dominated for the last three years and in my view overwhelmed many of the other areas where things have improved. There could also be other company risks affecting the share price (FA's share price manipulation for example).

As a result the company has only been priced based on the price it can get for it's oil and only on the oil it has already discovered.

As a result of these factors Fadilz is correct, there is a tighter correlation between the oil price and Amerisurs share price than you would otherwise expect.

FA is talking symptoms, Fadilz is talking about the results.

[foiledagain] 06/6/2017 10:10

Oil price is up, although still under $48

The spat with DOHA should be putting pressure on the oil price with potential concern over closure of Straits of Hormuz.

Dont really believe elections are that important to an overseas oil and gas company whose accounts and transactions/earnings are based in dollars.

You would have thought that Amerisur would have increased as the pound dropped against the dollar, which offset to some extent the drop in oil prices transacted in dollars.

I believe we need a statement from the BoD via the Company Registrars as to the exact state of holdings from major holders, including Rex.

It should also explain what happened to JPM's notified holding? Can't recall an RNS showing they had crossed under the threshold previously notified in 2015.

There has also not been any official notification from Rex H to signify he has finished selling, which he would be obliged to do if it was via the single transaction route.

In my opinion it has the definite uneasy feel of manipulation

[quidnunc] 06/6/2017 10:03

As predicted, the Ichimoku shows a Kijun-Sen cross which is a bearish signal.
The share price is however still above the clouds and would remain so down to the 22p level.

I suspect the movement is down to the Oil price and the phony war in Doha abroad as well as the looming election at home.
Q.

[foiledagain] 06/6/2017 09:59

Of course POO is fundamental to an oil company, but Amerisurs share price is not tied to the oil price, which was my point, as I believe there are other factors behind the scenes being played out.

If POO dictated an share price then it would suggest the share price of all oil companies would change and tick up or down as the POO moves. That does not happen.

Also, there are situations where the decreased price of oil may represent an opportunity to a company, such as CPO-5.

But I am concerned at Amerisur's share price WHATEVER THE NEWS, whatever the price of oil. It smacks of insider trading and manipulation

[sleveen] 06/6/2017 09:28

POO is fundamental to the share price of any oiler, be BP or Shell or AMER.

Just like the POG is fundamental to the share price of gold miners.

Though there are specific company factors that also impact the share price to a greater or lesser degree.

[francis55] 06/6/2017 09:27

Bought back in on a strict discipline of selling on a 10% profit. Others are where I also make profit.

[fadilz] 06/6/2017 09:23

FA I am not concerned to follow the day to day movements in quite the way that you do.

But if you want a guide, if we take Platanillo only, and a $15 cost of production, then a $1 movement in oil should move the share price by 0.8p. Oil has fallen by $5 or so in the last 2 weeks. That's 4p on share price.

That said if you are looking at day to day movements there are any number of factors that affect it. And I am certainly not advocating use of the model or the oil price to guide day to day trading.

My argument all along been
(1) that the move from 60p 3 years ago to 25p now *is* because of the fall in oil, and to blame the company for this is wrong. In fact without the OBA we would now be somewhere near 10p share price now, assuming we had ability to produce 5k barrells at 30p cost.
(2) it provides a pretty good guide to the effect on share price of any change in reserves or production or profit per barrel.

So perhaps we have different ideas about how to invest, or perhaps I have not adequately explained my use of the model. But to say oil price has no effect is plain wrong.

[al101uk] 06/6/2017 09:00

francis,

I'm not sure what you're trying to say in post 1951, does "I'm back" refer to you taking a new position? Or, as the rest of your post suggests, are you just here to promote your other investments?

[lucyp00p] 06/6/2017 08:51

LGO is where the real action is, you can lose a fortune there

[blackdown2] 06/6/2017 08:38

More's the pity. Why don't you go back to HUR and the other threads you inhabit.

[rollthedice] 06/6/2017 08:34

Live selling price (23.63) is higher than live buy price (23.59) ~ don't see that very often.

I added 20k@22.95

[foiledagain] 06/6/2017 08:12

This illustrates that the idea that the share price is tied to the oil price is just wrong

There is more at work behind the scenes controlling this price than pure commodity prices

[moneylender] 06/6/2017 08:10

Buyers came in @23p, think I would have had a nibble, but busy elsewhere!

[sleveen] 06/6/2017 08:04

Doesn't bode well for OBA flow rates, RNS being delayed.