Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[senttothegallows] 16/10/2023 22:26

Net asset value £1.12
16% yield
Balance sheet increased between 2022 and 2023.
Further planes due in to service equals more income.

Many reasons to buy.
I think funds buy high yield stocks to get income to deliver on their own dividend policy and then take a capital loss its easy to blame the markets for a capital loss.
It's a crazy market ATM.
1.12 nav 16% yield still good enough for me
Imho

[eeza] 16/10/2023 22:19

MM is dropping the share price because of the level of selling. However the share sales aren't necessarily related to concerns about the stock.

A lot of funds are reducing their holdings across the Market to cover redemptions. Peeps may be selling because of cost of living pressures. Some will be selling due to disillusionment with the Stock market (e.g. AIM has dropped 50% in last 2 years).

Etc.

There are hundreds of reasons for selling - but there is only ever 1 reason to buy.

[clive7878] 16/10/2023 21:58

2 things to back the share price up then - asset value and dividend.
I did think I read at some time that the asset value was 1.12p
but didn't like to quote it in case I remembered wrongly,
but thanks for confirming it.
The last few days may be a blip in share price after going ex-dividend,
even though the fall is higher than the dividend being paid itself, a
drift that in time will be recovered.

[senttothegallows] 16/10/2023 20:01

Net asset per share is £1.12 at 31.3.23 looks solid to me in current climate v 45p share price IMHO

[eeza] 16/10/2023 16:39

Not in 'real' terms, tho.

[clive7878] 16/10/2023 16:18

This wud be a long term investment if we are looking at Emirates renewing - I believe in 2026 - , which are odds on that they will do.
Then any share price - in 2.5 years time - counting the dividend of 17.5p - above 26.7p wud be a gain, with today's bid price at 44.2p. All a few ifs & buts to consider.

[eeza] 16/10/2023 12:46

Exactly my thinking, also.

So the question is: will Emirates extend?


Do you feel lucky, punk.

[scrwal] 16/10/2023 12:39

If the Emirate leases are extended then the relevant loans should also be extended. This gives a lot more time to pay down the senior element whilst also enabling the company to build up cash reserves to settle the junior loans - the fall in residual values would be more than offset by the loan repayments made.

[andyandyoj] 16/10/2023 12:09

Mmmm - how do you think the debt came down? You need to look at their repayment schedule as well. The above figures from eera are after debt repayment.

[clive7878] 16/10/2023 11:45

eera - if the Co earns £34.7m and total costs are £25.9m, that leaves £8.8m



What do you make of the outstanding debt of £955m, although it has come down by £78m

Year Ended 31 March 2023 31 March 2022 31 March 2021
Total rent income GBP 208,099,130 GBP 190,033,541 GBP 201,374,560
Total Net Assets GBP 341,326,227 GBP 313,764,056 GBP 311,694,307
Dividends paid GBP 19,102,241 GBP 4,341,418 GBP 11,346,419
Share Redemptions GBP 28,002,108 GBP 29,999,169 GBP 96,655,916
Shares in issue 303,899,361 347,313,483 434,141,757
Outstanding debt GBP 955,407,582 GBP 994,628,598 GBP 1,033,556,018
Changes to residual values -1% - 16% -20%
Share price at year end GBP 43.20 GBP 30.40 GBP 24.00

Although the dividend yield is obviously good, it is only good if the share price does not now drift.

[eeza] 16/10/2023 11:25

If Emirates extend the leases, as I expect them to, then the residual values of the A/C become an issue for the future, imo.

[eeza] 15/10/2023 22:31

Sent you a PM Clive.

[eeza] 15/10/2023 22:25

My notes include:
The Co earns around £34.7mn sterling lease rental payments on the eight Emirates planes (after paying all debt service costs on the full fleet of 12 planes), and which covers the £21mn annual cost of dividend, £1.8mn operating costs and management fees of £3.1mn (total £25.9mn).

[clive7878] 15/10/2023 22:04

Where do we see the share price going is the £64 question, as I learnt with Diversity Energy that it is no good receiving quite a good yield if it is more than being wiped out by the fall in share price.

I thought that the asset value of AA4 was far greater than the current share price.
Am I incorrect in this fact. We have had seen very thin share trading for quite some time now which has put the share price into much of a rut.

Is not the annual profit a fair bit higher that the total dividend being paid out each year?

[scrwal] 14/10/2023 13:57

Given how DNA2 rose the market must be concerned about the junior debt being greater than any future sales value.

[clive7878] 14/10/2023 13:27

Lets hope that future dividends are not wiped out by reduction in share price though.

[senttothegallows] 12/10/2023 12:33

Happy to top up at 44.75p a near 16% yield imho

[eeza] 12/10/2023 10:45

The bid dropped 2.5p last XD.

[clive7878] 12/10/2023 10:41

eeza - you are more or less righthan unfortunately.
Price equivalent to 46.15p prior to ex dividend, see where it goes from here (44 +1.75)

[clive7878] 11/10/2023 14:28

eeza - true in theory that should occur, but hopefully it will not fall the whole 1.75p, as holders will continue to hold. With a good quarterly dividend yield hopefully we will not see a rush to sell out tomorrow.

If in 3 years time after we have collected a 45% dividend, 3 years at 15%,
where can we expect the share price to be?
Also what can we expect the asset value to be?
2026 as I understand is when Emirates leases expire - to either be renewed or we see the sale of the planes, which should have an effect on the share price.

I can't understand why there are buys of shares in single figures though of 3 trades of 2 shares and 1 of 5 shares, surely the cost would exceed the value of the shares traded.

[eeza] 11/10/2023 12:31

The band is likely to be 44.0p to 46.0p tomorrow.

[clive7878] 11/10/2023 12:21

Boost in buying may be because of the ex-dividend date being tomorrow,
but even so the share price remains in the band 45.5p to 47.5p,
but hopefully the price will break out of its current band range,
and the DNA3 news has not raised the share price

[eeza] 11/10/2023 10:29

DNA3 seems to have got a boost.

[my retirement fund] 09/10/2023 18:14

Excellent news. Always amazing to watch how news spreads and spills over. A decent amount of volume today on the back of what would otherwise have been a quiet day.

[clive7878] 09/10/2023 14:58

Believe ex-dividend date is this Thursday, 12th October too.
Looks goods news in previous posts.