Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[clive7878] 11/8/2023 08:25

Things look quite good for AA4 currently but how dependant is the company on Emirates? Maybe this is what keeping the share price lower than what it should be. What other arms of business have they?
Do they have enough cash to buy new planes?
How does one see the business in 5 or 10 years times, when the A380's are older?

[btgman] 11/8/2023 08:10

Given the improving outlook for AA4 a 14+% yield is very high I feel a rise in share price to reflect a 10% yield to be more appropriate
AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[gary1966] 11/8/2023 07:50

New website but can’t see the latest factsheet on it. PDF link works though.

[clive7878] 10/8/2023 23:08

Does Amedeo Air Four Plus Limited have sufficient earnings to cover their dividend?
Yes, GB:AA4's past year earnings per share was 0.19p, and their annual dividend per share is 6.93p. GB:AA4's dividend payout ratio is 42.49% (6.93p/0.19p) which is sustainable.

The IC is useful as a starting point for share tips. However I do try to do some research on the full picture of things. How good is the dividend cover? Can it be maintained in the future? What is the level of debt - is it getting smaller or bigger? Same as turnover. What is the net profit now, and proposed in the future? What is the pe ration and eps now and predicted in the future. What are in any - black clouds can we foresee on the horizon?

In theory - this looks like a cracking investment - high yield, at a discount to asset value, and AA4 is dealing with a very profitable company in the Emirates, and they have a contract for the future, so things do look promising. Something like was it 47% or 52% of the stock is held in chunks by management funds. So the spare shares on the market to buy and sell could be limited. Financially things should get better in the next two years, and the stock should recover more from the Covid period, so in theory the price should be very solid.
At the end of the day, one must make one's own decision to when and if to buy and sell.

They did stop making the A380's because they it was said that they were not cheap to run, although this was my favourite plane to fly on when I travelled Cathy Pacific from Heathrow to Hong Kong - so smooth with 4 engines.

Are there any buts and ifs though, that I have missed?
Currently this week we have seen nearly all buys, but the total buys are very small beer though in total. Some much larger buys and the price could be 55p, but a revised price would be based on new positive information

[indiagolf12] 10/8/2023 20:26

Thanks Andy & Clive for your well informed responses. I have bought a 1/2 position. It’s interesting that the Emirates business model using DXB as a hub means they can operate the A380 profitably when most other carriers can’t. If EK can fill an A380 from GLA to DXB as planned then they must have amazing scale.
Surely the A350’s are tied into the leases until 2036, although the lease rent from 2030 has not been fixed? I guess AA4 could selll the aircraft subject to the leases tho?
DNA2 falling due to EK A380’s lease expiration?

[2wild] 10/8/2023 19:52

China today announced it has opened up group travel to some more countries, including USA and UK. Effective from Thursday. Added some more at 47.15p.Yielding 14.85%.

[clive7878] 10/8/2023 19:00

The share price has appeared to have narrowed today
The trading appears to be OK for the immediate & medium term. I agree with the question about the much longer term, unless they buy new planes or get the current ones updated

[langland] 10/8/2023 18:38

The other thing which I would throw into the mix is this....an ex flyer friend if mine who still follows the aviation world has said that Emirates have asked Airbus to re-engine their 380s so that they would be more efficient. Airbus refused presumably because of cost and certificate issues. However, if the desire is strong enough to re-engine, then the life of the 380 will be extended substantially. Maybe a compromise will be found. Whilst this is an interesting take on the situation, I can't substantiate with a link. What I can say is that my friend is a serious person.

[andyandyoj] 10/8/2023 16:43

well therein lies the question.... A few things to think through Indiagolf12 - hope they are helpful
1. The number of shares has gone down significantly as they have used excess cash
2. There is still some good scope for generating excess cash (sell off the Thai A350s, generate longer term leases than expected with EK) to reduce them further
3. The cash and cash equivalents is rising nicely - while the brokers forecasts were for it to fall. As this gets bigger the gap between the balloon payments and the value shrinks
4. The dividend payment as a percentage of revenue is significantly less than what it was pre-covid
5. EK have stated that they want to retain all their A380s until the mid 2030s. Not a contract yet - but that bodes well.
6. Dubai announced 2 days ago that it had exceeded prepandemic arrivals (international overnight visitors). Most of EK passengers are connections - but that is a huge milestone in recovery
7. Emirates is achieving record profits and growth, has geared up to bring the A380s back into service and has problems with the replacement aircraft
8. There are activist shareholders on Board who see higher value to be unlocked.
SO you are right - it is the $64000 question - but if that were cleaqr and obvious the share would not be at the current discount and the yield would be closer to 8%.

[indiagolf12] 10/8/2023 15:42

AA4 - I’m very tempted as an income play. Looks a good risk to reward ratio with cracking yield, big discount to NAV and good looking chart. BUT is there a market for the A380’s when the leases end? Is that the elephant in the room, as I believe there is a balloon payment of $30m / aircraft at lease end? Will the discount to NAV absorb all this? (I’m not a IC subscriber so didn’t see the ST puff recently.)

[mattjos] 09/8/2023 21:37

Extrader ... quicker if i direct you here and see 1.18 How do i add a picture.

[rimau1] 09/8/2023 21:25

Clive, reckon its about a 5% chance that you own a piece of the one you saw today! Of our 6, 4 should be flying and Emirates have about 80 in total!!

[clive7878] 09/8/2023 20:27

Saw an Emirates A380 today.
I thought at the time I could be owning a very small piece of that.
15% yield is not to be sniffed at.

[extrader] 09/8/2023 18:33

Hi Mattjos,

Slightly o/t , but how do you insert a screenshot of the stocko page, pls?

TIA

[andyandyoj] 09/8/2023 16:45

Yes since the 28th it is net purchases about 3.9m - seems a lot but is only just over 1% of the company. If any of the larger players are selling that is easily absorbed. But it will dry up at some point

[eeza] 09/8/2023 14:50

MM's still have plenty in their satchels to unload - else the share price would have moved up.

[clive7878] 09/8/2023 14:47

Nearly all buys again today
Still a flat share price ?

[mattjos] 08/8/2023 22:47

Nich, hats off if you got on Concorde. I can now only imagine the experience..

[nicholasblake] 08/8/2023 22:13

@Mattjos Concorde was ALL first class!

[clive7878] 08/8/2023 21:54

Mattjos - Thanks for the above - quite interesting.

The price at 16.30 though was 46.0 / 47.5p

Britishbulls.com I see have AA4 down as a sell, which surprised me.
But they are not always correct.

Lets hope they are wrong and the stock flys higher - like an A380 - tomorrow.

I flew on a A380 with Cathy Pacific from Heathrow to Hong Kong some years,
absolutely no turbulence at all - fantastic smooth flight.

[clive7878] 08/8/2023 16:18

Share price now 46 /50 at 16.18, but could not buy online, had to go through my broker.

There is a suggestion here that the MM are now getting short of stock,
and we all know what that can mean for tomorrows trading price.
But then in saying that - nothing appears to be logical with the MM's and share pricing,
as we see a majority of sells and the share price goes up in certain cases.

Tomorrow could be an interesting day with AA4 -
my assumptions could be entirely incorrect - who knows !

65,000 sold at the end of trading - matched deal change of hands ?

[eeza] 08/8/2023 16:18

There is quite obviously a large seller supplying the MM's with stock.


Unless the MM's are printing afresh each night.

[clive7878] 08/8/2023 16:02

All blue (buys) - what does it take to shift the share price ?
Maybe the MM are waiting for my second buy, before they move it up !

I can only think that AA4 is not on many people's radar screen at present !
3 days of - admittedly of small buying - and virtually no sells -
make one wonder why the share price has not moved up.

Am I missing something here ?