U.S. crude prices were on course to notch weekly gains on Friday, lifted by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, renewed geopolitical strain involving Venezuela, and stalled diplomatic efforts in Moscow. Even so, both oil benchmarks eased slightly after Thursday’s advance.

By 07:45 GMT, Brent crude was down 3 cents, or 0.05%, at $63.23 a barrel, leaving it virtually flat for the week. West Texas Intermediate slipped 10 cents, or 0.17%, to $59.57, though it remained up roughly 1.7% over the past five days — marking a second consecutive weekly rise.

“The market weighs the impact of lower CPC exports and some positive news on the demand side, with a possible Fed rate cut,” said Anh Pham, a senior research specialist at LSEG. The drop in shipments referred to disruptions in Kazakhstan’s oil exports after a Ukrainian drone strike on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s loading terminal in the Black Sea.

On Thursday, both benchmarks had climbed about 1%.

A Reuters poll conducted between Nov. 28 and Dec. 4 found that 82% of surveyed economists expect the Fed to lower rates by 25 basis points next week — a move that could stimulate the U.S. economy and bolster oil demand.

“Looking ahead, supply factors remain in focus. A peace deal with Russia would bring more barrels to the market and likely push prices down,” Pham said.
“On the other hand, any geopolitical escalation will drive prices higher. OPEC+ has agreed to keep production steady until early next year, so it adds some support for prices too,” he added.

Energy markets are also reacting to rising tensions between Washington and Caracas after President Donald Trump said last week that the United States would begin taking action against Venezuelan drug traffickers “very soon”. Rystad Energy warned that such a move could threaten Venezuela’s 1.1 million barrels per day of crude output, most of which is exported to China.

Meanwhile, negotiations between U.S. and Russian officials in Moscow failed to produce significant progress over the war in Ukraine, eliminating the possibility of any near-term deal that might ease restrictions on Russian crude.

These factors helped offset concerns about oversupply. On Thursday, a document reviewed by Reuters showed that Saudi Arabia had cut its January Arab Light prices to Asia to their lowest level in five years due to abundant supply.

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