European equities posted modest gains on Friday, supported by a generally positive tone as investors awaited the delayed release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—an important input ahead of next week’s policy meeting.

As of 08:10 GMT, Germany’s DAX rose 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.2%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%.

Focus turns to U.S. inflation ahead of the Fed

The Federal Reserve convenes next week, and expectations for a rate cut remain firm, helping buoy risk appetite globally. This held true even after U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a three-year low on Thursday—a move economists largely attributed to seasonal distortions tied to Thanksgiving.

Labor-market conditions remain central to the Fed’s thinking, particularly after the ADP private payrolls report showed an unexpected drop in November employment. Later today, policymakers will also get long-delayed PCE deflator figures—albeit for September—offering insight into the inflation side of the Fed’s dual mandate.

Market pricing for a 25-basis-point cut has increased sharply over the past two weeks, with futures implying an 88% probability of such a move, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

German industrial orders surprise to the upside

In Europe, German factory orders rebounded more strongly than anticipated in October, rising 1.5% on the month versus expectations for a 0.4% gain, data from the statistics office showed.

Despite the better-than-expected figure, Germany’s economic recovery is expected to remain muted next year as exports confront sluggish global demand, according to an early-Friday forecast from the German Economic Institute (IW). The group sees real GDP inching up just 0.1% in 2025 after two years of contraction, followed by a more meaningful 0.9% expansion in 2026.

Later in the session, the eurozone will publish its final read of third-quarter GDP, which is expected to reaffirm annual growth of 1.4% and a quarterly increase of 0.2%.

While the European Central Bank also meets later this month, investors broadly expect policymakers to leave rates unchanged at their final meeting of the year.

Swiss Re anticipates stronger profit in 2026

In corporate news, Swiss Re (TG:SR9) projected higher net earnings for 2026 and announced plans for a $500 million share buyback. The reinsurer expects net profit of roughly $4.5 billion next year, slightly above the more than $4.4 billion it anticipates for the current financial year.

Oil holds gains on geopolitical tensions and Fed expectations

Crude prices were steady on Friday, holding Thursday’s advance as stalled diplomatic efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine and firm expectations of a Fed rate cut lent support.

Brent crude futures edged up 0.1% to $63.34 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.1% to $57.69 per barrel.

Both benchmarks gained nearly 1% on Thursday. Brent is set to finish the week roughly flat, while WTI is on track for a 1.5% weekly rise—its second consecutive weekly gain.

The absence of progress in U.S.–Russia talks has dimmed hopes for a quick easing of sanctions on Russian crude, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in the market.

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