China has released its GDP data for the third quarter, showing year-on-year growth of 4.8%. Compared to the U.S. or Canada, the figure seems impressive. However, if we analyze the trend over recent quarters, the picture is less optimistic: growth was 5.4% in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second, and has now fallen again. 

Even so, the CSI 300 has not reacted much: has it become as resilient as the S&P 500?

Not exactly. First, the slowdown was expected. Second, analysts had predicted something worse, around 4.7%. A rebound in industrial production and stronger exports, driven by increased shipments to Southeast Asia and Africa, helped soften the blow, although it is unclear how long that support will last.

As for the key takeaway for investors, the data suggests that China’s economy remains on track. When combined, the figures from January to September show a 5.2% year-on-year growth — meaning the government’s annual target of around 5% still looks well within reach. And that’s the double-edged sword.

On the one hand, it’s cheering that the trade war with the US doesn’t affect China that much yet. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected data could delay the introduction of new stimulus measures — something markets have been waiting for quite a while, and which has been a key factor supporting the CSI 300 index.

So, will the government announce new support measures?

There is still a chance. Although GDP has not disappointed too much, domestic demand remains weak and lags behind overall GDP growth, even though it was supposed to be the main driver of the economy this year. Then there is the troubled real estate sector: house prices fell in September at their fastest rate in 11 months. 

And fixed-asset investment hasn’t been particularly encouraging either. All in all, there seem to be more factors in favor of a new stimulus package than against it. Perhaps some clues will emerge at the upcoming plenary session of the CPC, where Beijing is expected to outline the main lines of its next five-year plan.

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