Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[78paul] 05/10/2016 22:06

with regards to 'short attacks', ive been watching level 2 for a while and the only people selling are scared private investors, a grand here, a grand there. 3 or 4 sells at 170p moves the bid down to 165p and so on.

so there is no 'short attack' going on, this is purely driven by sentiment.

[michaelmouse] 05/10/2016 16:39

No doubt. Best wishes.

[r1singson] 05/10/2016 16:35

MM - no not at all, I love hearing people's anecdotes successful or otherwise. I think your rules are great especially regarding tipsters! You are also one of the very few that admit to not having stop losses - fair play - I actually do have some sympathy with this principle believe it or not. I will be following traks progress still and as I say I think it is an excellent long term hold if you can afford to just wait it out. I feel there is a lot of uncertainty around the world markets in general and have been really upset with the "contributions" of discredited and dishonest tipsters. I'm sure our paths will cross some time in the future.

[blondeamon] 05/10/2016 15:49

"Large"? Not even 1% of the stock has changed hands.

Any selling, even small, moves this much more than it should. Buys will too when the time comes.

[salpara111] 05/10/2016 15:36

As has been pointed out, the stock is very illiquid so the only shorting that could happen would be naked and as such cannot be significant.
I am still of the opinion that there is a large seller in the back ground.

[r1singson] 05/10/2016 15:13

Thanks for your comments michaelmouse, I've appreciated your comments here too and your blog which I continue reading with interest. It's nice to have a share and not worry too much about fluctuations in the medium term but as you say you have earned that luxury through some very astute decisions very early on. I continue to say trakm8 is a great company as the sentiment on this board thinks generally but it might be a little while. For me personally the shorting attack couldn't have come at a worse time and perhaps a tighter stop loss would have been better for me.
All the best to you michaelmouse and all other holders, I suspect holding your nerve here may well be rewarded!

[jombaston] 05/10/2016 15:10

If you have a stop loss rule you should stick to it.

However, as a fundamental investor my approach would be to stress the investment assumptions. The forecast £6m pre-tax for Mar-17 is clearly at risk (although forecasts haven't been changed). The company has suggested that the £500k cost increase could be mitigated. Maybe it can't, maybe the cost increase will be even more as £ falls.

What if there were a £1m impact and pre-tax was only £5.1m next year?

This would be only be a 70% increase in profits rather than a doubling as previously thought.

That would be a little disappointing, but probably not enough to explain £20m off the market cap (220p down to 160p, roughly £70m down to £50m)

Of course, the pound might even stabilise or go back up...

[michaelmouse] 05/10/2016 14:50

r1singson - Sorry to hear that you've sold and crystallised your losses.

You said "we live and learn....". I fear your biggest lesson in investing may yet be to come.

The company is 50% cheaper than when you bought it. "In the short term the market is a voting machine, and in the long term it's a weighing machine".

I expect earnings this year will show high double digit growth, and a significant proportion of earnings are quality high margin recurring revenues.

The forward p/e for this year is around 10-12. Looks cheap to me, and I expect the turning point in the share price is quite close when the share price will resume an upward trajectory. This is not a "story" stock with nothing to support the price. It has real revenues, profits, cash-flows and dividends.

Concentrate on company fundamentals and use the share price as your friend and not your enemy I'd suggest.

Anyway you've always struck me as a very decent and honest individual who is learning the ropes so to speak, and you've done what feels right for you.

I wish you every success in future.

[exv] 05/10/2016 14:19

If you want to avoid 50% losses you'd do better to sell before it falls 50% and not after.

[r1singson] 05/10/2016 14:16

I've had to sell out at a huge loss

Sorry to report, good luck to all holders. This is a good board with some decent well informed people. But we all have different timeframes and whilst I would like to be a long term investor and forget about holdings the truth is I can't afford to sustain 50% losses even if the company comes good some time in the future.

We live and learn...

[blondeamon] 05/10/2016 14:12

Price has nothing to do with value. Not a single person here can name a bad thing about the company itself and its products, board etc

With such an illiquid AIM share, any seller makes a huge impact and when the herd panics then this will dip significantly compared to a blue chip.

As long as there's nothing wrong with the company I will keep averaging down. If your favourite food was sold in Tesco for 50% less would you want it less or more? Same logic applies here.

Dividend now at 1.21%

[gorilla36] 05/10/2016 14:03

mikeindevon - Good post Mike and all true. Like you, I really like this company and I think the management team do a superb job. The problem is (and I've seen this quite a few times recently) concentrated shorting by people with huge reserves of money and time and the ability to drip feed negative (but usually unfounded) stories take their toll on private investors like us. This could be driven a lot lower before there is a chance that any intrinsic value comes to the fore. In the meantime, PI stops are hit, sentiment continues to be negative and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. I sincerely hope I'm wrong (I have a large holding) but sometimes it does feel like I'm not investing in a company with superb growth prospects, rather just a vehicle (no pun intended) for hedge funds to make money from!

[r1singson] 05/10/2016 13:57

I've had to sell out at a huge lossSorry to report, good luck to all holders. This is a good board with some decent well informed people. But we all have different timeframes and whilst I would like to be a long term investor and forget about holdings the truth is I can't afford to sustain 50% losses even if the company comes good some time in the future.We live and learn...

[40toolong] 05/10/2016 13:45

Tree shake in my opinion. MM's are driving the price down to acquire more PI shares.

I for one am not going to fall for it

Topped up

[mikeindevon] 05/10/2016 13:18

There's been a lot of folk going on about the £500K additional component costs and trying to make a big deal of it ... but actually it's a big *positive*. Let me explain why ...

Firstly any company that is in the electronic systems business is facing the same component cost increases, Trakm8 is no different, it's a level playing field.

But there is one *big* difference. The other companies are facing increased component costs *and* increased manufacturing labour cost etc. Trakm8 don't because they manufacture here in the UK at their own facilities (Box ... remember?). So Trakm8 are actually relatively Brexit proof ... the pound affects their components but not their manufacturing.

Ergo, they will do better on unit costs compared to their competitors and the profits on the manufacturing stay in their coffers.

As for the present drop ... share volumes are miserably low for a real dump and get out operation ... we haven't even made it to 1% share turnover on a day yet -- and that's for a small company as well. So my opinion for what its worth ... just wait for common sense to prevail.

Mike

[salpara111] 05/10/2016 12:27

That is me out, punishing loss but I am not about to wait for £1.
I can see no real reason for the drop but the down trend is still very much intact and if it is insiders selling at this price they are clearly much less optimistic about the future.
I think this is going to be my last AIM stock as this has really finished me on them.

[knowbodyyouno] 05/10/2016 12:12

Very odd movement with no news. But, as always, my opinion is that if you believe in the growth story here, ignore (or exploit) the drops. Trak is about the long game in my opinion. And I still believe its future is a rosy one.

GLA.

[martinthebrave] 05/10/2016 12:10

Just bought more at 159p (showing as sale). Unlikely to be the floor but these have to be way oversold now.

[sheep_herder] 05/10/2016 11:41

Ergh, this is a dog of a share.

[cheshiremoggie] 05/10/2016 09:58

Route Monkey is already profitable and earnings enhancing so why do you think it wont go well?

The fall of Sterling and the related profit downgrade is clearly going to impact the company and the share price for some time - at least until the organic growth takes over.
Each % fall in Sterling is obviously bad for the company and imho it will fall quite a bit further.

As the growth in the company is good and there is an obvious future potential for both the insurance and general telematics sector, medium/long term investors ought to be fine.

The crucial short term factor will be the actual results and bearing in mind the 'trolls' an important bit of info from the results will be the debt position.

I believe the current position to be:

Net debt at start of period : £1.2m

'Cash out'
Cash out for acquisition £0.8m
Dividend £0.6m
Currency movement £0.5m (is that for this period or annualised?)
So if the company were generating no cash the net debt would be £3.1m

So any result with a net debt of less than about £3.1m means cash generation.

Is that right?
What will the results show?

We shall see in a few weeks.

CM.

[blondeamon] 04/10/2016 20:08

That's the same for everyone not just Trakm8. Yet shares like QTX are still on all time highs today.

[larva] 04/10/2016 20:06

sinking pound will make components cost more

pound at 30 year low

Not good

L

[michaelmouse] 04/10/2016 15:02

Over the years I've lost count of the endless usernames that pop up on these BBs.

I watch them come, and then watch them go ;).