Tp Share Discussion Threads

[the prophet] 13/9/2016 13:57

Nap 14thWill have a listen to SOU, thanks.Best of luck with TPG. I think it needs something to lift those forecasts, as , imo, they look a bit pedestrian.

[napoleon 14th] 13/9/2016 13:34

TP - I'm excited 'cos I've just come off Tip TV, listening to the CEO of SOU!

hxxp://www.soundenergyplc.com/investors/webcam-site-operations.aspx

IMO we can't sanely expect anything remotely like that here, but a TPG turnaround
looks in the making IMO. Hi risk, hi reward - that's where I've made a killing before,
so can afford the liquidations & flops along the way.
Yer pays yer murni & takes yer choice...

Besides, there have been occasions when I've not been deaf to alarm bells.

[timojelly] 13/9/2016 11:55

Much better than losing £4mill odd a year

[the prophet] 13/9/2016 11:50

Nap 14th, thank you for accepting a contrarian view on this board, a refreshing change!
There's nothing wrong in having different opinions, time will tell who is right and wrong as the market will judge that. I could be right or wrong, I freely admit that, but I try to stick to the 'facts' re the published forecasts and I'm hard put, on the basis of those forecasts, to see what you guys are excited about.

[the prophet] 13/9/2016 11:42

Would it be reasonable to expect forecasts to be upgraded for next year off the back of the 'huge forward order book', or is that order book already built into the forecasts?
That's a reasonable question for you guys, surely?.....

The Edison report of 19th August calls for t/o of £24.6m in 2017, giving eps of 0.1p for a forward p/e of 57.5 when the shares were 5.75p

[napoleon 14th] 13/9/2016 11:36

Quite so, PA.,
& "the prophecy" is for a huge forward order book too,
as well as further sales opportunities.

Losing momentum today, but medium term, a break of this
resistance at between 6 & 7 p seees a new res at 12p.
Not worth getting in sixes & sevens with the prophet about!

As for Crawford, those types of payoffs have been around for decades,
as I remember for my auditor days in the '70s... I doubt that will change either!

Anyway, no harm in a contrarian view, else we'd get brainwashed in no time......

[the prophet] 13/9/2016 11:32

PA

I'm happy to stick by the facts, and it's a fact that TPG lost £776K in the last period.
The forecast is for another loss this year, unless the forecasts get upgraded, which seems unlikely given PC's 'in line with market forecasts' comments for the year as a whole.

if you think a combination of a heat-exchanger business and air control business makes sense, absolutely fine, it's all engineering, after all....

No comment on the suspected trousering by Crawford of c.£1/4m....

I'm happy that others can take a different view, it's their money and their prerogative, it's just a shame that the likes of you can't extend that courtesy,but there we go, not too surprising.

[pavey ark] 13/9/2016 11:23

(Unfortunately overnight rain closed the course we were visiting so back home before meeting up at our home,links (sandy) dry course.)

I see usual nonsense poster is at it again, this is the bit I like best:"It's a mish-mash of disparate businesses".... that one's worth a laugh.

Under the excellent guidance of Phil Cartmell this company has been pulled from the brink of extinction and EBITDA losses of £3m (two years ago and have been as high as £5m) has been reduced to £2m then zero and I expect close to £2m EBITDA profit this year.

Every acquisition made by Cartmell has been profitable and the submarine business he bought for £10m is worth far more than £30m today.

The only mistake Cartmell made was to hang on to the compressor business too long.
It has only been 18 months or less since the cord was finally cut and a serious attempt was made to cut back on the eye watering losses but it was this blue sky business that most of the disgruntled poster initially invested in.

Cartmell has managed to build a fairly serious specialist fabrication/engineering business for less than £2m (SSM and the old Hunt heat exchanger business.)Now "Fit for Nuclear"

He has now spun off the Managed Solutions business that is looking very good but still in the early stages. (he got this for free from the Hunt Submarine business)

As I said before he bought the Submarine business for £10m and it is worth many multiples of that.

At the last count Cartmell has invested c. £280k in buying shares in the company.

I'm no fan of Cartmell,nor do I dislike, him I simply don't know him but if anyone takes anything like a balanced ,rational view of what he has achieved there can be few complaints.

[the prophet] 13/9/2016 09:30

What's not to like?
Well, on a quick skim through they lost £776K, after a £70K income tax credit and even with TPG Marine revenues up over 40% from the corresponding period!
If you guys like that, well.....
And despite all the contract wins, the expectation is to trade according to market expectations for this year, which is , I believe, another loss!

Anyone spot Mark Crawford's pay off?....

'Exceptional items in the period to 30 June 2016 comprise termination costs of GBP231k'

I would bet the above means Crawford trousered pushing on 1/4million when he resigned.I guess that will be confirmed in the AR in due course, but seems a helluva lot for a resignation, if that is the case. Any why not be more transparent about what the termination costs were for?

Be interested to see the Edison reports, but looks to be like the gravy train rumbles on.
Yes, it is an improving trend, but at some £26m market cap it hardly looks a bargain. It's a mish-mash of disparate businesses that, by the sound of it, TPG intend to add to by acquisition, that sounds like bonus time for Phil again.

End of this month Cartmell will have been on board for 7 long years and not a sniff of a profit to date, says it all really.

[napoleon 14th] 13/9/2016 08:33

Went long yesterday, gone longer today.
What's not to like?

[timojelly] 13/9/2016 08:32

Nice big sells out of the way

[itchycrack] 13/9/2016 08:27

Very positive results and forward looking statement!

[pavey ark] 13/9/2016 07:52

Almost perfect set of results and filled with positives.
All units forging ahead (no pun intended).
I expect an EBITDA for the year of c. £2m with rock solid prospects of this figure acceleration upwards.
Given the value and utter dependability of the order book I am confident that this is a very, very good risk/reward investment and one that I expect to make considerable and constant returns in the coming year and well beyond.

Off on an away day golf jolly with the boys but no intention of trading here and I have no buy/sell orders in so look forward to some additional number crunching this evening (the old calculator could do with a rest)

[monty panesar] 13/9/2016 07:45

Sorry can't invest in a loss making company where the 3 executive directors are being paid over 750k. Nice little earner for them.

[chickenrun1] 13/9/2016 07:36

Looks well ahead to me, I cannot see how H2 won't be stunning with their order book.

A £1m improvement in the ebitda in 1h alone and cash generative to the tune of £700k in the first half.

[timojelly] 13/9/2016 07:19

If this isn't 10p soon....

[timojelly] 13/9/2016 07:09

Sweeeeeeeet

[alchemy] 08/9/2016 11:50

AGM comes then goes. Went to the Corac ones....oh dear.

[timojelly] 07/9/2016 12:34

Oops, I'll get my coat.

[timojelly] 07/9/2016 12:15

Selling has no effect

[timojelly] 06/9/2016 18:36

Slowly slowly...

[ewads] 05/9/2016 18:17

Edison "interim results on 13 September to support FY16 expectations".

[pavey ark] 01/9/2016 20:52

cr1, we have been told that the results will be in line with market expectations but unfortunately I don't have this figure as I have not been able to find the house broker's prediction.
I have noted that Edison have given some figures but they were based on the 2015 results and have only produced two small updates ("Flash Reports")where they simply used the earlier figures.
The second update was so close to the results that I doubt if any contact with TPG would have been possible.
As you rightly pointed out there has been a constant flow of very impressive news,contracts, over the last six months and there will be great deal to concentrate on.
Obviously the headline earnings, t/o, EBITDA etc are the first things to look at but this company has made amazing progress on a number of fronts.
I've just spent some more time researching the German contract and I am very, very impressed, not only with the contract itself but the potential for this contract to grow.
The Trident programme is moving on apace.
The Managed Solutions unit should be expanding
Has the engineering unit picked up?
Has the design and technology unit cut its losses further?

TPG has:-
Large cash pile
Very large and expanding order book.
Large portion of future profits locked into the air filtration systems already supplied.
Sole supplier to the RN and many navies worldwide.
Managed Solutions unit looks like being in the right place at the right time.
Engineering unit poised to move into the nuclear field (military and civil)


My view is that not only has great progress been made but that the rate of progress is increasing.

[chickenrun1] 01/9/2016 18:56

What do we all reckon to big upgrades for 2017?

Broke forecast are for sales to go from £22.6m this year to £24.8m in 2017 but with contract wins of £50m over 7-8 years then there must be £6-7m sales growth next year at least - some £5m more than current forecasts.

It looks to me that TPG is in strong danger of broker upgrades after the interim results on on 13th - just 3 trading days after that general meeting.