Tp Share Discussion Threads

[chickenrun1] 01/9/2016 18:56

What do we all reckon to big upgrades for 2017?

Broke forecast are for sales to go from £22.6m this year to £24.8m in 2017 but with contract wins of £50m over 7-8 years then there must be £6-7m sales growth next year at least - some £5m more than current forecasts.

It looks to me that TPG is in strong danger of broker upgrades after the interim results on on 13th - just 3 trading days after that general meeting.

[chickenrun1] 01/9/2016 18:41

Aug 31: The initial contract with TKMS is worth a minimum of £1.65 million, with the potential for multiple further units.

Aug 5th: The contract, if awarded, is estimated to be worth circa £22.6 million over approximately 8 years, starting in 2017. This announcement signifies the intention of the MoD to negotiate the aforementioned contract but does not constitute a firm order at this time.

4th July: The contract, upon award, would be for an initial 7 years with an optional 3 years extension and is estimated to be worth £27.8 million over the full life cycle of the contract.

Not a bad couple of months for a co with a market cap of £23m and interspersed with lots of director buying and a trading update that was very positive.

The general meeting in a weeks time, Sep 8th.

[pavey ark] 31/8/2016 21:27

If this is a new customer what units were they using on their previous boats ?
I had a dig about the ThyssenKrupp sites and noticed this :

"Ever since there have been submarines, the goal has been to extend their diving time. With air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems, this has become possible for non-nuclear boats. These propulsion systems increase the underwater range significantly and thus reduce the risk of discovery. In Kiel an air-independent propulsion system has been simultaneously developed and deployed - the HDW fuel cell plant. Besides new submarines, serving boats can also be retrofitted with this system."

Here's perhaps a bit of a leap but one worth kicking around, if they have a new air propulsion system and now need the new TPG equipment are the two linked.

Note that they say:-
"Besides new submarines, serving boats can also be retrofitted with this system."

So would these retrofits also require the TPG kit ?

Does extended underwater range now mean that you now require the new TPG air systems ?

[the prophet] 31/8/2016 10:18

re the 'much quoted Edison', it's paid for research (which is fine) so presumably TPG are happy with what they put out.
I think Edison does help to set investors expectations. Ofcourse, there is no reason why they can't do better (or worse) than forecast.

[pavey ark] 31/8/2016 09:42

I think we can put the possibility of a bid to one side for a year at least.
The institutions call the shots, they are in here at well north of 13p and when you see that options are at 10p with the 15p for 20 days condition on top I think that there will have to be a move to an EBITDA of c. £5m+before a bid is considered.
This is not to say that other companies are not interested but any hint of an approach would/should be rejected at this stage.

I would suggest that any number of companies would offer 10P/ share TODAY but I doubt if they'd get anywhere.

I must point out that the much quoted Edison Research gave a value to TPG Marine and its spin off ,Managed Solutions, of 8.9p / share based on 2015 results.
Without everything that has happened since and the cash added in this gets us to 10.5p/share.

On top of the large and valuable contracts added since 2015 you have the compressor business with all it's IP and existing contracts and a nice little engineering business that is "Fit for Nuclear"

[chickenrun1] 31/8/2016 09:04

Yet another contract win I see :-]

The end game here is clear to see - they are likely to get bid for as they have the tech and the £52m+ contracts recently won on top of others that many in their sector would love to have I would say. Net the cash off and they would be buying all those contracts and technology for £17m here which is ludicrously cheap.

[pavey ark] 31/8/2016 08:42

hxxps://www.thyssenkrupp-marinesystems.com/en/submarines.html

Septblues just beat me to it but here's another link.

Number of very significant points from this contract announcement.

1 A very significant new customer.

2 The system to be installed is a NEW VARIANT.

3. This new unit would seem to be a bit more expensive at £1.65m for a non nuclear submarine so should be worth more to TPG

4. This is very probably the first of a number of units to this customer.

5. As I posted before , every one of these installations brings in a steady stream of additional cash over the lifetime of the vessel.

6. This contract was signed post brexit so even if the currency gain is ignored there doesn't seem to be a problem,then again these units are not produced anywhere in the EU.

All things considered this is one of the best contract announcements I've seen even though it was ONLY for £1.65m.
(ONLY for £1.65m TODAY!!!)

[azalea] 31/8/2016 08:24

As it broadens its customer base the more attractive target it looks to BAE.

[septblues] 31/8/2016 08:23

ThyssenKrupp is a top customer to have with wide-ranging, longstanding market and cutomer relationships and brand globally

hxxps://www.thyssenkrupp.com/en/products/shipbuilding/

[the prophet] 31/8/2016 08:00

Be interesting to see if Edison increase their forecasts for TP for 2017 on the back of this news.

[ewads] 31/8/2016 07:59

Not a bad outlook for a niche market.

[18bt] 31/8/2016 07:50

This seems to take the number of ACI customers to 4 (posts earlier in Aug) - increasing customer numbers ought to add to the potential rating and predictability.

[timojelly] 31/8/2016 07:10

'The initial contract with TKMS is worth a minimum of GBP1.65 million, with the potential for multiple further units.'Bring it on! This company is on the up, period.

[paulgo] 30/8/2016 19:19

To add to what chickenrun has already said TP, Phil Cartmell took over a complete dogs dinner, a non-company in effect, built on sand and hope.

While what we have now in TPG is never going to soar to £5 (as we all hoped CRA would) it is at least a credible, solid company making progress and with a future; a company that I and many others doubt would even exist without him.

[the prophet] 30/8/2016 18:15

chickenrun

That's a fair post and I can certainly appreciate a different point of view on things.
I agree with the view that,on the face of it, Kings moving up and Cartmell leaving would be of benefit.
Perhaps they can make further acquisitions that make sense, the E&P division does not make a lot of sense and maybe they can get shot of this division. Imo, it needs a big shake up to get value here. Perhaps with the recent nominal share restructuring they are gearing up to something along those lines.

[chickenrun1] 30/8/2016 17:54

I think you might be doing Cartmell an injustice T.P.

When you look at where he took over Sep 09. He took over with a lot of the business in the development phase. I'd suggest they were getting their ducks in a row when energy prices collapsed which has meant they have needed to re-focus somewhat.

I would be inclined to agree that few companies turn around without a change in management but I look on that change in management as being in place with the appointment of Simon Kings to the board. Let's be honest, since he's been in place the directors have been buying shares, the price has rallied, they have made their first profit in 2h and they have won very large orders to the tune of £50m+ in the past month or so,

Cartmell seems to have got the products that have demand focused upon,he has got a man that has the contacts and the ears of the MoD in position and as far as the submarine systems go a product that few can compete with and where there is little competition.

One other little thing, the change of name. Often this is a recognition of a change in the business. I will not be surprised to see Cartmell go soon with Kings moving up to CEO. They do have the new FD in place and Martin Blomley has also moved up to board level so I do think there's enough board changes there with the name change to suggest something is 'happening', possibly due to pressure from major shareholders.

Lastly, the share buying of S.Kings has been rather sizeable for a guy with take home pay of just over £50k p.a. I would suggest.

[the prophet] 30/8/2016 17:12

Give it a rest Paulgo and stick to discussing the pros and cons of TPG.Let's hear your assessment of PC's 7 years in charge then, as you don't seem to like my view.Over to you.

[paulgo] 30/8/2016 16:31

Your comments about Phil Cartmell are often vitriolic TP.

Vitriol without bitterness?....I doubt it.

[the prophet] 30/8/2016 16:18

cheers tiltonboy, can't argue too much with any of that, other than I'm not so sure re TPG doing well, in the end. Perhaps if they can get rid of the loss making parts and perhaps acquire some businesses that are going to do something there is hope. They need more, I feel, than just the submarine business. But, as you say, the price seems well up with events at the moment.

[tiltonboy] 30/8/2016 15:59

TP,

There are very few occasions where bad management actually turn things around, and patience tends to exacerbate losses, as you don't get out. I was a long suffering shareholder in Water Hall, who eventually reversed into PEG, and putting two cr&p companies together seemed to be a recipe for disaster. However a decent underlying business has been built on, and the share price is now responding, and patience has paid dividends.

There are a number parallels with TPG (Focussed customer base, lack of critical mass etc) , but PEG trade on a PE of 8, whereas TPG are on 50x earnings two years out.

I actually think TPG will do well, but the price seems to be well up with events in the short term.

[the prophet] 30/8/2016 15:38

Paulgo
yes, I sold at a loss. No, I'm not bitter. You get winners and losers in this game, some are tax losses, some are tax gains, that's all part and parcel of it.

Much as you would like to paint me as a bitter ex-shareholder, I'm sorry to disappoint you, I'm not.

I don't spend 'hours' posting on TP, just a few minutes every now and then. TP is an interesting one, in that it's a classic case of the new guy coming in and feathering his own next and not creating any shareholder value.

So, if it's ok by you, I like to follow the fortunes of this company. I know it upsets some of you if I post a few facts or quote the official Edison forecasts.
Perhaps there is glory to come in TP Group, we will see. But my experience is that bad management can overcome the good points in any business. I think cartmell is poor, I think the structure at TP is unwieldy. I think TP would be better of just with the submarine bit and King as the boss.

These are all valid views, but I know you and others would love to brush this all under the carpet.
Up to you, but the record is all there for all to see.

[the prophet] 30/8/2016 15:31

tiltonboy, yes, you could be right, we will never know. I take the view that in the 7 years cartmell has been on board then it's been an unmitigated disaster for shareholders.
If you have picked the shares up at the 2p-3p level then you could do ok, but at £23m market cap, even with the cash element, the submarine business has got to go some to overcome central overheads and losses in the E&P or whatever it's called division.

TP have got a niche business dependant on a few major customers that could do ok, provided there are no delays etc which is notorious in this business. The forecasts are not showing any exciting growth, but there is an improving trend.
I would hate to do an analysis of cartmell's earnings v TP's earnings.....thinking of it, perhaps I will, after all 28th September 2009 is when Cartmell came on board to the chorus of

'We are delighted to have Phil joining us as Chief Executive. His excellent
track record of working with growth companies to build shareholder value should
help Corac to capitalise on its strong market potential'

The share price on that glorious day? 46.5p.
So perhaps you are right, tiltonboy, as that's another thing that the Prof got wrong! Hardly Phil's fault he's useless!

[paulgo] 30/8/2016 15:30

You may have sold at 18p TP but at a substantial loss, hence your bitterness. That only remains a good decision while the share price stays below that level; hence your fear.

Why else would you spend precious time posting negative comments on a company whose shares you no longer hold? There are thousands of of companies out there that you don't hold. Do you spend hours seeking out negatives about them and posting on all their bb's?

No you don't.

Why not?

I'll tell you.....they haven't cost you money!

[chickenrun1] 30/8/2016 15:23

Trace a line up on the lows and you'll see this may well be a good point for one to increase or buy on, as I have done in the past days :-]

[tiltonboy] 30/8/2016 15:13

TP,

I'm not defending Cartmell, but total destruction would have happened had the Prof not been ousted!