Tp Share Discussion Threads

[the prophet] 04/10/2016 16:27

Cartmell's record, as requested by PA
Delighted to help.

All factual

28/09/09 Joined, share price was 46.5p, 108m shares in issue.

05/07/2010 Appointed executive chairman

12/11/2010 140m shares placed at 15p to raise £21m

15/03/2012 60m shares at 10.5p to raise £6.5m. Wellman Hunt Graham and Wellman defence bought for cash consideration of £10.75m

02/02/2013 Placing/open offer to raise £13.1m, 130m shares at 10p

A total of £38m rasied!

notice the trend in placing price, 15p to 10.5p to 10p.


Cartmell's salary

2009 £42k (part year)
2010 £161K
2011 £214K
2012 £518K (includes £250K bonus)
2013 £277K
2014 £278K
2015 £285K

Nice work if you can get it? Understand PC don't even work for TPG 'full time'
The trend in PC's salary is going in the opposite direction to shareholder value! Or doesn't that metric count?.....


So, 7 years on, £38m rasied, where are we? Currently 422m shares in issue, up four times from when PC joined,and with the share price currently at a heady 6p, divide the starting share price by around 8!

That is some record!

No doubt, a bit like political parties, it was all the fault of proff Musgrave and the ghastly DGC! But when does PC start taking responsibility for this shambles? A year into his tenure, or should it be 2, maybe 3...4...5....6....7?
You decide.

So there are the facts

TPG have ended up with what looks like a decent but niche business the Air Control and a few rag tag bits and bobs like sheet metal work, heat exchangers and the 'latest', let's do the walkways and railing for the installation as well.
Other than all involving metal, the synergies are hard to find.

[the prophet] 04/10/2016 16:15

calm down, PA, Edison Research are not my friends, I don't employ them but they provide a useful service and , presumably, TPG think so as well.

Your forecasts may be 'careful', but they are that, your forecasts, whereas Edison forecasts are made by consultation with the company. I'm assuming TPG have not endorsed your forecasts?

Re 'Industry standard' and 'rag bag', I could defend them but it seems to upset you so I have just concentrated on facts and official forecasts.

Re Cartmell's track record? Delighted you asked, will post soon.

Re when the share price was 3p, if you care to remember I suggested that even good old' Phil could wring some value out the shares at that level. Check my posts, it's all there.

[pavey ark] 04/10/2016 15:54

What part of my carefully set out forecasts/guesstimates don't you agree with ?

Where has Cartmell gone wrong ?
Put you figures for Cartmell up and we can compare them with the continued growth of the business and the current worth of the businesses bought by him ( check with your friends at Edison Research)

I note you have not responded to my clarification of " industry standard" nor have you been able to defend your "rag bag" comment.

Just to help you out here, I don't think I've seen an Edison estimate that wasn't beaten but even for them an 8% rise in t/o 2016/17 is rather miserly with TPG Maritime rising by 3% (?)
I also took the hypothetical but not unreasonable leap that some of the cash would be used in a purchase and given Cartmell's excellent track record in these matters this would improve the figures.
The market is giving little credit for this cash and an add on engineering unit would fit in with all the other integrated units that make up the group.

As far as TPG not being a "screaming buy" you were saying that sort of thing when the share price was under 3p.

[the prophet] 04/10/2016 14:29

you're way out.....Edison's forecast is for EBITDA of £1.9m v your estimate of £4.65m.

Absolutely fine to give a forecast, but it's worth pointing out that the Edison Research forecast is based on discussions and information from TPG, whereas your estimate is based on your own thoughts. Nothing wrong in that as such, but worth pointing out that your forecast is a whopping 150% up on the official version.

feel free to ignore the warnings on Cartmell's factual performance and, ofcourse, you are going to talk your own book.
However you slice it, p/e, cash flow, margins, market cap, a company forecast to make £0.6m next year and valued at £25m is not a screaming buy, even allowing for the cash.

[pavey ark] 04/10/2016 14:13

Just to clarify a few points.
Edison Research did a survey of 22 A&D companies and specialist engineers and produced an average EV/ EBITDA figure of 9.45 which given the breadth of the survey I quite reasonably took as an "industry standard"
It is worth noting that due to the unique niche position of TPG Maritime Edison use a multiple of 10.5 times but I scaled this back to a much more conservative 9.5 times.
The "rag bag of disparate businesses" comment must render the rest of this person's post(s) totally meaningless as he obviously has no idea of how TPG operates.
To continually quote a PE figure without taking into account the large cash pile and the fact that this company makes no interest payments nor does it have a tax liability is disingenuous and/or plain stupid.

The Cartmell bashing nonsense continues and I look forward to pointing out,in great detail, how successfully the CEO has turned this company round and had created a company that is worth much more than has been spent on it.

Cartmell's performance certainly stands comparison with others.

I stand by my previous post and look forward to discussing the details of any of my projections/ guesstimates.

If I'm way out .......please tell !!

[dogboy] 04/10/2016 12:39

No, of course not ;)

[the prophet] 04/10/2016 12:32

oh dear, not bitter at all dogboy.

Just like to sprinkle a few facts and 'official' forecasts on the thread.

ofcourse, folks are free to make up their own forecasts, and why not, nothing at all wrong in that.

[the prophet] 04/10/2016 12:29

Grinley

If you are referring to my last paragraph, then i have a fair idea. However, I would only post the details once I had fully checked the facts, otherwise some on here would start jumping up and down, so I tend to stick to facts or forecasts.

[dogboy] 04/10/2016 12:29

When life gives you lemons, don't suck em you'll make yourself bitter :)

[grinley boy] 04/10/2016 12:26

The Prophet surely you know already...

[the prophet] 04/10/2016 11:57

All very interesting, but it's worth noting PA's forecasts are nothing like the market forecasts



eg, Edison Research, which is paid for research by TPG, are forecasting an EBITDA of £1.9m for 2017, with ptp of £0.6m and eps of 0.1p, putting the shares on a forward p/e of 60.
That's a bit less than PA's £4.65m figure! Don't know why TPG pay Edison, or perhaps TPG, sensibly, like to put out something a tad more realistic.
I note Edison confirm that TPG are on track to meet the Edison forecasts for this year, which is for a loss of £0.2m So Edison do have a track record of getting it right.

Using PA's 'industry standard' of 9.5 gives £18m, and in the cash and that gives you around half of PA's estimate.

I'm not sure I agree with a multiple of 9.5 for the rag-bag of disparate businesses,but pass that one by.

ofcourse, TPG may do better or worse than forecast, they make make use of the cash with a stonking acquisition, they may deliver shareholder value at some point.

Last week Mr Cartmell clocked up 7 years with the group. Worth checking out cash raised, share price decimation, salary and bonuses paid to Cartmell and losses in the period. In fact, sounds like material for a post when I get round to it.
History suggests holders here will have a long wait for much in the way of returns, but you never know, be interesting to see.

[alchemy] 04/10/2016 10:33

Very good post . Wish we had more such across Advfn.Thank you so much.

[pavey ark] 04/10/2016 09:26

Good to see some investors actually appreciating the situation we have here, albeit as a result of placing their faith in a third party ie a share tip.

The recent results gave me every indication that the share price will be over 10p next year and should only a matter of by how much.


TPG Maritime look like having an EBITDA of £3.5m / £4m this year

TPG Engineering could stem losses in H2 and have a yearly loss of £0.5m

TPG MS this is on the up and I expect £0.4m/£0.5m

TPG D&T had an absolutely outrageous loss of £0.75m in H1 and this has to improve or even more drastic measures taken !!

and so to next year:-

TPG Maritime £4.5m (not a big ask)

TPG engineering £1.25m ( spend £3m/£4m on a quality bolt on ,absorb their central costs and put them in line for the contracts gained by TPG MS)

TPG MS £0.75m (or even higher)

TPG D&T the losses must be reduced/stopped soon but I'll still take a £0.5m loss next year

Central costs £1.35m (up to cover some of the new engineering costs)

Cash held at year end £8m
Cash used on new engineering unit £4m
Net cash generated c. £2m

Net cash at end of next year £6m +

I make this an EBITDA of c. £4.65m

Using the industry standard X 9.5 = 44

Add in cash = £50m market cap or 11.80p

EDIT: "The Board is confident that this momentum and strategic focus will enable the Group to deliver on its objectives and greatly enhance shareholder value."

I'm pretty certain that this is the first time that this particular wording has been used and it is quite a strong statement.

[bullster] 04/10/2016 09:23

Back to 5.5p with no RNS is o.k.

[alchemy] 04/10/2016 09:20

Ah maybe confirmation needed!

[alchemy] 04/10/2016 09:13

Yes, see what you mean. You have to look backwards to 2014 to have been here before. Re-rating. Wonder where the next plateau is?

[timojelly] 04/10/2016 07:24

We finished strong yesterday, let's hope for another good run today.

[timojelly] 03/10/2016 19:02

What are they going to do with that cash pile?

[timojelly] 03/10/2016 18:50

Just need a few more orders

[timojelly] 03/10/2016 18:44

20p will do me

[sphere25] 03/10/2016 16:48

Too much in the write up, but SCSW pretty much saying this cash backed stock has multi-bagger potential, with forecasts potentially being smashed due to the ballooning order book.

Could be a rags to riches story they say!

Doesn't look complete pie in the sky to me, like a penny oil punter. Looks like the fundamentals are there for a big re-rating. Be nice if it could do what another of SCSW recent smaller tips ALT has done - ver--het--ical!

Taken a punt here. If it breaks 6p tomorrow on volume, there's an argument for saying it could go to 10p!

Maybe I'm a dreamer! ha

Don't be a muppet - always do your own research!

[bullster] 03/10/2016 13:53

Would one of you subscribers care to fill us in on the specifics of the Share Watch tip, thanks awfully.

[nw99] 03/10/2016 13:48

Sharewatch bullish targets