Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
TP Group LSE:TPG London Ordinary Share GB0030591514 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 5.625p 5.50p 5.75p 5.625p 5.625p 5.625p 242,793 07:39:36
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Engineering 21.2 -0.3 -0.1 - 42.67

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Date Time Title Posts
13/12/201709:26TP Group plc2,601
25/8/201710:12TP Group (formly Corac)13

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TP (TPG) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2017-12-12 15:16:005.504,500247.50O
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TP Daily Update: TP Group is listed in the Industrial Engineering sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TPG. The last closing price for TP was 5.63p.
TP Group has a 4 week average price of 5.13p and a 12 week average price of 5.13p.
The 1 year high share price is 8.88p while the 1 year low share price is currently 5.13p.
There are currently 758,565,854 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 408,708 shares. The market capitalisation of TP Group is £42,669,329.29.
pavey ark: (Ah,I was getting worried about our old troll but there he is lurking in the shadows, bitter,broke and friendless but hey-ho life goes on.) LL, I don't mind anyone shifting some cash about but the lack of response to yesterday's announcement was very strange. Was away all day yesterday when I got home I couldn't believe the flat share price and lack of enthusiastic comments. This morning I expected things to warm up but instead we had a seller and a share price drop. As our "thumbs down" troll will no doubt remember I pointed out at some length how the share price was ridiculously low at 3p but for everyone else here I must say that, in my opinion, the current share price constitutes an even bigger bargain.
pavey ark: The trouble with valuing the company at this point is the disproportionate amount of cash which certainly distorts things. As I have a 50% compound target for share price growth from my mid 2015/16 average of 3.6p , starting from Jan 2016 I was going along nicely 3.6p,5.4p and 8.1p for this year end. Without the distraction of the fund raising we would have EBITDA of £2.75m ( average of brokers estimates) X 10 + cash of £7m divided by 420m shares and hey presto 8.2p The large cash pile could improve things considerable especially when you see the the February acquisitions are expected to pay back costs in only four years. The management obviously believe they have significant advantages when negotiating with small private companies that now find themselves struggling with the new MoD way of doing things and have said that they can pick up these companies for 4 to 6 times earnings. If we leave the current cash pile in place, bring in the new share and use my valuation (above) for TPG the target share price drops to 7.3p for the year end which is more or less where we are but if the management can acquire companies on something like 5 times earnings then the share price moves to c.11p and that is without the existing businesses improving next year. Some may point out that I'm valuing TPG at 10 times EBITDA but expecting to buy companies for half that figure but that is why management wanted to raise the cash in the first place. As TPG moves to being a tier 2 defence contractor this multiple become even more appropriate. When anyone tries to put a share price value on TPG they simply cannot ignore the Maritime unit or lump it in with the rest of the business as the value of this unit alone is edging towards £45m or 6p a share !!! Cash adds 3.7p per share. After this there is still the services unit that has moved into profit and the engineering unit with a £10m turnover and heading in the right direction.
pavey ark: I would agree that there is no immediate catalyst for a share price rise but when you look at what has been achieved in H1 then look at the share price movement during this period I doubt if there would have been any reaction anyway. The sad fact is that the biggest jump in the share price was after the IC tip. Private investors do a fair bit of mumping and moaning but are seemingly unwilling to sit down and go over ALL the info available to them and then make a judgement. For well over a year this company had a market cap of c £15m(3.6p average) over £7m cash and a maritime unit that was worth £30m but even though this was pointed out most still didn't buy. When IC simply stated the obvious this somehow made things OK. The cash, order book,client list etc make this company almost bullet proof. TPG has a material advantage over its peers and is looking to exploit this advantage. The existing business looks very capable of an EBITDA of £3m this year and £4m next and with £7m cash this would justify 8/9p this year and 11/12p next. (These figures exclude fund raising and new shares.) The above was my model, with selective acquisitions along the way. The management obviously feel that they can do better than this and have raised £21m to go after profitable private companies that find themselves at a disadvantage due to their size and the new MoD way of doing things. Time will tell but Cartmell and his team don't overpay and have got all their acquisitions spot on up until now.
septblues: PA yes "Once again we seem to have people still bitter about the money they lost on a blue sky research company that simply no longer exists." I don't take investment decisions with that overlay of emotion, whilst the IP to my knowledge remains in place and is being used with good potential. I don't have the figures to hand but as I recall PC came on board whilst the MCap was roughly £30m (give or take) and share price c 30p (give or take), they've raised capital many times since then and the MCap was £23m and share price c 7p pre placement. The fact that the market doesn't give credit for the £40m MS business or cash is a separate topic. I remember many moons ago someone saying that PC's narrative of his Vega success conveniently ignored the share price when he came on board as he rebased his share price for his positive narrative. The only thing which matters to me is whether this will make money for me from here on out...sunk cost is sunk cost. For that, my judgement is whether I have adequate confidence in the management. I made my comments above and bought my rights. So PA "so would you like to dispute any aspect of my post ?"
pavey ark: Septblues, I must apologise for that rather "from the hip" response to your detailed and plausible post. I don't necessarily go along with all of your conclusions and I'm making enquiries but I am pretty certain that the editorial staff at IC have a free hand. One thing that is certain is that IC were pushing against an open door here as the share price had reached very silly levels and the prospects for the company were looking better than ever. This may have been very good timing for IC as they like to tell people how well particular tips have done and even with yesterday's share price leap this only puts the TPG share price close to or even less than where it should be at this stage. Looking ahead I consider the most important part of the business to be the engineering unit. If the previous loss of over £1m last year can be reversed there are fairly massive implications for the bottom line and the indications are that things are going well.
pavey ark: CCNP, I agree with you up to a point and my long term analysis is certainly looking good. I predicted a 50% year on year increase in the share price based on a very full average of the share price (3.6p) from mid 2015 to mid 2016 (when I was telling everyone on here that the company was massively under valued BASED ON CAREFUL ANALYSIS !!) So starting with this average and taking it from Jan 2016 I predicted a 50% gain year on year. I now have to up my prediction slightly from 8.1p to 8.5p by the year and I consider the company to be even more undervalued than before. From the house broker Cenkos 4th April Share price 8.37p Stockpriceup.Thestock;maybeᙦ7;up28%Ƚ47;YTDbut7347;there‐ratinghasleftᙦ7;thestockonanundemanding7347;rating(2017EEV/sales0.9x;andEV/EBITDA10x).ᙦ7;Theoperationalleverage will mean the earnings multiple will rapidly decline from this point. Thecompany is well positioned to establish itself as a meaningful defence contractorand weare;Buyersof7347;the71%compoundȽ47;EBITDAgrowthoverȽ47;thenexttwoyears.  (Sorry about the words running together but cut/paste from a PDF) "Valuations are based on ratios and analysis of accounts." As I said , I agree up to a point, it is not working here but it will eventually. Just a point about the broker's forecasts (Cenkos and Panmure Gordon)I consider them to be rather conservative and fully expect the £2.5m/£2.6m EBITDA forecast to be increased to at least £3m this year which certainly gives a valuation (and ratios) that support my 8.5p year end price.( 10x EBITDA + Cash (£6m)= 8.5p/share). One could certainly make the case that this valuation is OK for a rather staid, steady as you go sort of company but it must be remembered that I for one expect the EBITDA to rise to £4.5m next year supporting a 12p share price. Almost no matter how one values this company the current share price does not reflect its current worth never mind its potential.
kiwihope: The share price is bound to move up and down a bit, particularly a non-profitable company like this which is still largely valued on future prospects. Those prospects do look promising but they will need to be executed well to justify the current price. I have top-sliced twice and now have about 50% of my original holding. That is how I like to do things, not buy or sell all in one go. Pavey is right that TPG could be worth more than the current £30M valuation, but also things may go wrong and it could be worth less. By selling half my holding at a good profit I don't care so much if the share price goes up OR down. That is a lesson I learnt some years ago...don't spend lots of time trying to work out if a share price is going to go up or down (because you never really know). Try and make it so you don't care, i.e. you've either bought some but have money to buy more if the share price drops, or, you've sold some but could sell more if the share price rises. I personally think after the recent re-rating the share price will bounce around between 6-10p or so until the company actually makes bottom-line profits of £1M or so.
bullster: I thought i would put together a graph comparing volume, and share price reaction to it, so what have i observed in this two year period. #1) The turnaround of TPG's share price began with the 25 January 2016 RNS (Trading update and Notice of Results) when the term "breakeven" was mentioned:- The Board is pleased to report that the Group continued to make good progress in the final quarter of 2015. Results are expected to show that Group has achieved a key target for the year by being adjusted EBITDA breakeven, and the Group closed the year with a cash balance of £7.0m, which is ahead of expectations. #2) On occasions when daily volume hit seven million, the share price jumped twenty five percent. #3) Although the jumps in share price have been sold into, the momentum has carried on in it's upwards trajectory. #4) The latest jump in share price has seen many sells but market makers have limited their usual effect, i am putting this down to the impending contract announcements and that TPG is now rubbing shoulders with big hitting companies that circulate the preferred list of MOD/government contracts. It must be noted, once companies get into this clique, business between themselves also begins to flourish, which opens up new horizons for TPG's other units.
the prophet: methinks dear old Pavey must be suffering from water on the brain up in the Lakes or altitude sickness from running up them fells! I bet he didn't laugh louder than I did on reading 'deal of the decade'. Wow, that is some statement, even from delusional PA!!! OK, lets just examine the facts and the reader can decide if this indeed was the 'deal of the decade' and also how the 'deal' has fared under TPG's stewardship. First thing to say the two businesses have had more name changes that any business should have to bear! Wish I was their re-branding guy, would have made a fortune! We've had Wellman Defence, Atmosphere Control Int, now TPG Maritime, but it's all the same stuff, a niche business of sticking air purification systems into subs. Ok, the acquisitions were announced on 15th march 2012. The day before TPG's share price was10.5p and the number of shares in issue was 247m. The share price had already been falling for several years under Cartmell's tenure.So that was a market cap of £26m Fast forward to today,some 4.5 years on, a share price of 5p and 422m shares in issue for a market cap of £21m. Hmmm, share price halved, bunch more shares issued. Don't look like the 'deal of the decade' for shareholders. Perhaps it's just that the market has not recognised the intrinsic value of these gems? Well, have a look at the financial record before and after TPG's control. Before: TPG Maritime t/o £10.4m with an EBITDA of £2.4m for year to end Dec 2011 TPG Engineering t/o £9.4m with an EBITDA of £0.6m for year to end Dec 2011. After: Needless to say in the subsequent 4 years the performance has not hit the heights of the year before TPG's purchase and the record has been patchy, to say the least. The forecasts for this year do offer a glimmer of hope, as TPG Maritime is down to make £3.7m EBITDA, but, unfortunately, TPG Engineering is expected to weigh in with a £0.8m loss. That gives a combined EBITDA for these two businesses of £2.9m, which is £0.1m less than the year before TPG took control! It hardly looks the 'deal of the decade', although PA is surely having one of his laughs with that one. Shareholders have not seen the benefit of this 'deal of the decade', all they've seen since the acquisition is a share price that's halved and almost double the amount of shares in issue. Same old same old. So who has benefited from this deal?......You've guessed it, good old Phil. Not only did he trouser a 'very nice thank you very much' £250K bonus in 2012, for the 'deal of the decade', the deal has been able to keep him and his 'supportive' bod in gravy ever since. You wouldn't have been able to do that on the failed DGC business, so good job Phil spotted the 'lifeboat' and ploughed investors and institutions money into it. It's worked a treat.....'deal of the decade', perhaps it is after all!
the prophet: I believe there are a number of fundamental flaws in the Edison sum of the parts report: The details of the Edison SOP valuation is given in their April 2015 initiation note. They give EBITDA's of Aerospace and Defence (A&D) companies. The sort of companies Edison use include the likes of Rolls-Royce, QintetiQ, BAE systems etc. The market caps range from £113m to £18bn, most of the companies featured are large companies and I question whether a comparison with TPG at market cap £11m is in any way valid. They also look at the valuation of a number of specialist engineers, which may well be closer to the mark. The smallest, Hayward Tyler, has a market cap of £72m, but, again, most of the companies featured have market caps in the £250m-£3.5bn rang, so I again question whether a comparison is valid, I think not.It is perhaps noteworthy that the two smallest specialist engineers, Avingtrans and Hayward Tyler with market caps of £100m and £72m respectively come in with EBITDA of 5.5 and 6.5. Therefore I would suggest that Edison's 10.3 EBITDA is a very full valuation indeed, I would suggest half that would be nearer to the mark, given the examples above and that, imo, is being generous.I just can't see anyone coming in and paying 10.3 EBITDA for ACI. Moving on to the next part of the Edison calculation, Edison value E&P as zero, probably fair enough, although I doubt if you will find anyone to take them off your hands, so possibly a minus zero. Edison then deduct £3.9m from their valuation for 'three times central costs', although the 2014 and 2013 annual report gives central costs in each year as £2m, and that excludes exceptional costs which don't seem particularly exceptional, be it opening the Slough centre, or closing it, or the very hefty £900K it cost in advisers and fees for buying the Wellman companies. Anyway, perhaps they are assuming the costs will be £1.3m this year, then applying what looks like a fairly arbitrary '3 times' to that figure. The trouble with the Edison methodology is it grossly overstates the value of ACI for the reasons given above. Nobody is going to come along and pay £30m for ACI. But, if we worked on the basis that miracles can happen, then that £30m will not be fully reflected in the TPG share price as what will be left will be a bunch of central costs, a loss making/break even E&P process combined with an investor deep distrust of the current management due to their track record of shareholder value destruction. Or, put it another way, the market won't trust them to use the cash wisely. Edison's bottom line on the SOTP valuation gives an 'implied fair value of 7.3p', which is a market cap of £30m. That looks hopelessly over optimistic,imo and for the reasons stated above, but one would think there should at least be some upside from the current £11m market cap.
TP share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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