Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
TP Group LSE:TPG London Ordinary Share GB0030591514 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 5.85p 5.70p 6.00p 5.85p 5.85p 5.85p 68,658 08:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Engineering 21.2 -0.3 -0.1 - 44.38

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Date Time Title Posts
24/2/201808:19TP Group plc2,819
25/8/201710:12TP Group (formly Corac)13

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TP Daily Update: TP Group is listed in the Industrial Engineering sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TPG. The last closing price for TP was 5.85p.
TP Group has a 4 week average price of 5.65p and a 12 week average price of 5.13p.
The 1 year high share price is 8.88p while the 1 year low share price is currently 5.13p.
There are currently 758,565,854 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 117,805 shares. The market capitalisation of TP Group is £44,376,102.46.
pavey ark: Here's a thought, how does anyone here know what went on and as far as board dis-unity goes perhaps the board are united with the exception of Simon Kings? The only underperformance of this share has been the immediate share price and that is not the responsibility of the management. 1. The news flow through December was about the best I've ever seen from any share I've ever held. 2. The turnover and earnings have risen year after year. 3. The forward order book is very full and set to increase significantly this year. Oh I can't be bothered with this !! I could go on to points 7,8,9 without drawing breath. Am I happy about Kings going ? ....NO !! Does it materially affect my view of future prospects for TPG...No !! The positives should be obvious to all shareholders but I remember similar posts two years ago when the share price was under 3p,valuing the company at £12m, when it had £7m cash and the maritime unit alone was worth well north of £30m. I also remember some on here siding with our super troll who disappeared when it became obvious that TPG were doing everything right but not before persuading the gullible that TPG wasn't really worth more than £5m !!!
swiss paul: Mr Ark a salutary message for the new year and one that my drive the price. This is an extract from the recent Sharesoc newsletter. These guys look out for us small PI's and well worth joining. Anyway here we go: Fat Santa Award TPG - Phil Cartmell: Appointed CEO of the then Corac in Sept ‘09 with the share price ~40p. Given 2m share options at 42p. 6mos later another 300k options were granted at ~21p. Fast forward to this year - several fund raisings later, several further option awards later, share price is down to ~6p....On 9/5/17 Phil handed in his then 9.3m share options and in return received 22m options at 7p! Of course has v strict vesting conditions (TPG share price needs to be from 9 -12p for full vesting...) Scrooge: * TPG - Phil Cartmell – for amazing destruction of shareholder value while enriching the man who has overseen the process! Happy to say Phil did not win that inglorious award that was one by someone with a bigger self interest - hmmmm even I did not think anyone was more #self centred' but apparently there is: Jeff Fairburn of Persimmon walks away with the Fat Santa award and ........................................................................................... Accrol Holdings wins the Scrooge award, for shocking the market and needing a dilutive emergency fundraise,announcing only a few months after their IPO that their business model is flawed. If it’s any consolation, the Directors who bought in the dilutive placing at 50p are 25% underwater already! IOTS
pavey ark: Right I will now try to explain a little more fully but these figures are there FOR ALL TO SEE and current investors should be very familiar with them. This is rather simple and quick. 1. Current year should see a EBITDA figure of £2.7m/£3m 2. Next year all units will produce even higher figures and recent acquisitions will have 12 months contributions. 3. The existing units( end of 2017) will produce an EBITDA of £5m+ but I will just count it as £4.5m 4. The company should have the bulk of £24m to invest in acquisitions in 2018. 5. The company is aiming at target companies to produce an adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4to6 ( some of these companies are almost forced sellers as they are not in the new MoD supply frameworks) Right, calculation time: There is an industry average (engineering and defence)for EV/EBITDA ratio of almost 10 but I'll use 9 £4.5m EBITDA x 9 = £40.5m add £24m cash gives a TOTAL EV of £64.5m 760m shares gives a projected share price of 8.4p To maintain this price acquisition would have to have an EBITDA ratio of 9 but TPG are targeting companies with a ("normalised"?) ratio of 4 to 6. If the cash brings in an additional EBITDA of say £4.5m we have an EBITDA of c. £9m and if TPG trades on an undemanding ratio of 9 x EBITDA we get a share price of 11p. So a rather mean but certainly achievable range of 8.5p to 11-12p for 2018. I'm afraid this is only a 40%-100% upside from where we are !!! Best to stick to this cautious target range as the market (and certainly some private investors) have never appreciated what was and is going on here. I have a feeling that Maritime is about to boost its order book to rather silly levels and its value must be recognised but I have been saying that for two years and the situation has only become more bizarre. Nevertheless I believe that this year will see a surge in what is a very full order book and this alone could drive the share price to levels beyond my predicted range. Current valuations, projections and predictions suggest 8.5p-11.5p for 2018. NB: Before I am pulled up I have used the rather simplified version of EV in that I have only included cash element.
pavey ark: Sorry to be a bit of a wet blanket here and I know this is "just a bit of fun" but if we have a rather ridiculous share price of 6p after recent announcements then I have absolutely no idea of what the share price will be at any time in the future. On a fundamental basis I expect our current EBITDA of c. £3m to rise to closer to £5m by year end 2018 (including this year's acquisitions) I expect the further £20m acquisition spend to add £4m to the EBITDA but not not all in 2018 as they will not have the full 12 months to contribute. The Maritime unit will continue to gain orders and profit and be worth £50m of anyones money but this 6.6p/share valuation has NEVER been recognised. (obviously not when the current share price is 6p for the whole company!!!) I could continue my rant but it is the season to be merry so trying to be positive. We've been here before when the share price was under 3p(£12.6m market cap) and I pointed out that maritime was worth £30m. I am a little miffed that the fund raising has screwed my previous predictions based on a very generous share price of 3.6p Jan 2016 I predicted a share price rise of 50% for the next four years ie 3.6p, 5.4p, 8.1p and 12.15p (by end of 2018) There is little doubt in my mind that the share price would be at my 8.1p prediction for the end of 2017 if the fund raising hadn't taken place. The cash in hand prior to the fund raising was easily sufficient for the two acquisitions completed this year and the cap ex in the new Advanced Manufacturing Unit. This management haven't put a foot wrong with acquisitions so happy to trust them with the £20m+ raised but it has clouded things a bit and has certainly confused those not willing to spend time looking carefully at what is going on. Oh what the hell !! 8.5p/9p very soon and 12p by the end of 2018 but we are in the hands of short term punters so who knows. The only thing I'm certain about is the sound, robust nature of the business and my faith in the management to continue with their good work.
pavey ark: The trouble with valuing the company at this point is the disproportionate amount of cash which certainly distorts things. As I have a 50% compound target for share price growth from my mid 2015/16 average of 3.6p , starting from Jan 2016 I was going along nicely 3.6p,5.4p and 8.1p for this year end. Without the distraction of the fund raising we would have EBITDA of £2.75m ( average of brokers estimates) X 10 + cash of £7m divided by 420m shares and hey presto 8.2p The large cash pile could improve things considerable especially when you see the the February acquisitions are expected to pay back costs in only four years. The management obviously believe they have significant advantages when negotiating with small private companies that now find themselves struggling with the new MoD way of doing things and have said that they can pick up these companies for 4 to 6 times earnings. If we leave the current cash pile in place, bring in the new share and use my valuation (above) for TPG the target share price drops to 7.3p for the year end which is more or less where we are but if the management can acquire companies on something like 5 times earnings then the share price moves to c.11p and that is without the existing businesses improving next year. Some may point out that I'm valuing TPG at 10 times EBITDA but expecting to buy companies for half that figure but that is why management wanted to raise the cash in the first place. As TPG moves to being a tier 2 defence contractor this multiple become even more appropriate. When anyone tries to put a share price value on TPG they simply cannot ignore the Maritime unit or lump it in with the rest of the business as the value of this unit alone is edging towards £45m or 6p a share !!! Cash adds 3.7p per share. After this there is still the services unit that has moved into profit and the engineering unit with a £10m turnover and heading in the right direction.
pavey ark: Septblues, I must apologise for that rather "from the hip" response to your detailed and plausible post. I don't necessarily go along with all of your conclusions and I'm making enquiries but I am pretty certain that the editorial staff at IC have a free hand. One thing that is certain is that IC were pushing against an open door here as the share price had reached very silly levels and the prospects for the company were looking better than ever. This may have been very good timing for IC as they like to tell people how well particular tips have done and even with yesterday's share price leap this only puts the TPG share price close to or even less than where it should be at this stage. Looking ahead I consider the most important part of the business to be the engineering unit. If the previous loss of over £1m last year can be reversed there are fairly massive implications for the bottom line and the indications are that things are going well.
pavey ark: CCNP, I agree with you up to a point and my long term analysis is certainly looking good. I predicted a 50% year on year increase in the share price based on a very full average of the share price (3.6p) from mid 2015 to mid 2016 (when I was telling everyone on here that the company was massively under valued BASED ON CAREFUL ANALYSIS !!) So starting with this average and taking it from Jan 2016 I predicted a 50% gain year on year. I now have to up my prediction slightly from 8.1p to 8.5p by the year and I consider the company to be even more undervalued than before. From the house broker Cenkos 4th April Share price 8.37p Stockpriceup.Thestock;maybeᙦ7;up28%Ƚ47;YTDbut7347;there‐ratinghasleftᙦ7;thestockonanundemanding7347;rating(2017EEV/sales0.9x;andEV/EBITDA10x).ᙦ7;Theoperationalleverage will mean the earnings multiple will rapidly decline from this point. Thecompany is well positioned to establish itself as a meaningful defence contractorand weare;Buyersof7347;the71%compoundȽ47;EBITDAgrowthoverȽ47;thenexttwoyears.  (Sorry about the words running together but cut/paste from a PDF) "Valuations are based on ratios and analysis of accounts." As I said , I agree up to a point, it is not working here but it will eventually. Just a point about the broker's forecasts (Cenkos and Panmure Gordon)I consider them to be rather conservative and fully expect the £2.5m/£2.6m EBITDA forecast to be increased to at least £3m this year which certainly gives a valuation (and ratios) that support my 8.5p year end price.( 10x EBITDA + Cash (£6m)= 8.5p/share). One could certainly make the case that this valuation is OK for a rather staid, steady as you go sort of company but it must be remembered that I for one expect the EBITDA to rise to £4.5m next year supporting a 12p share price. Almost no matter how one values this company the current share price does not reflect its current worth never mind its potential.
kiwihope: The share price is bound to move up and down a bit, particularly a non-profitable company like this which is still largely valued on future prospects. Those prospects do look promising but they will need to be executed well to justify the current price. I have top-sliced twice and now have about 50% of my original holding. That is how I like to do things, not buy or sell all in one go. Pavey is right that TPG could be worth more than the current £30M valuation, but also things may go wrong and it could be worth less. By selling half my holding at a good profit I don't care so much if the share price goes up OR down. That is a lesson I learnt some years ago...don't spend lots of time trying to work out if a share price is going to go up or down (because you never really know). Try and make it so you don't care, i.e. you've either bought some but have money to buy more if the share price drops, or, you've sold some but could sell more if the share price rises. I personally think after the recent re-rating the share price will bounce around between 6-10p or so until the company actually makes bottom-line profits of £1M or so.
the prophet: methinks dear old Pavey must be suffering from water on the brain up in the Lakes or altitude sickness from running up them fells! I bet he didn't laugh louder than I did on reading 'deal of the decade'. Wow, that is some statement, even from delusional PA!!! OK, lets just examine the facts and the reader can decide if this indeed was the 'deal of the decade' and also how the 'deal' has fared under TPG's stewardship. First thing to say the two businesses have had more name changes that any business should have to bear! Wish I was their re-branding guy, would have made a fortune! We've had Wellman Defence, Atmosphere Control Int, now TPG Maritime, but it's all the same stuff, a niche business of sticking air purification systems into subs. Ok, the acquisitions were announced on 15th march 2012. The day before TPG's share price was10.5p and the number of shares in issue was 247m. The share price had already been falling for several years under Cartmell's tenure.So that was a market cap of £26m Fast forward to today,some 4.5 years on, a share price of 5p and 422m shares in issue for a market cap of £21m. Hmmm, share price halved, bunch more shares issued. Don't look like the 'deal of the decade' for shareholders. Perhaps it's just that the market has not recognised the intrinsic value of these gems? Well, have a look at the financial record before and after TPG's control. Before: TPG Maritime t/o £10.4m with an EBITDA of £2.4m for year to end Dec 2011 TPG Engineering t/o £9.4m with an EBITDA of £0.6m for year to end Dec 2011. After: Needless to say in the subsequent 4 years the performance has not hit the heights of the year before TPG's purchase and the record has been patchy, to say the least. The forecasts for this year do offer a glimmer of hope, as TPG Maritime is down to make £3.7m EBITDA, but, unfortunately, TPG Engineering is expected to weigh in with a £0.8m loss. That gives a combined EBITDA for these two businesses of £2.9m, which is £0.1m less than the year before TPG took control! It hardly looks the 'deal of the decade', although PA is surely having one of his laughs with that one. Shareholders have not seen the benefit of this 'deal of the decade', all they've seen since the acquisition is a share price that's halved and almost double the amount of shares in issue. Same old same old. So who has benefited from this deal?......You've guessed it, good old Phil. Not only did he trouser a 'very nice thank you very much' £250K bonus in 2012, for the 'deal of the decade', the deal has been able to keep him and his 'supportive' bod in gravy ever since. You wouldn't have been able to do that on the failed DGC business, so good job Phil spotted the 'lifeboat' and ploughed investors and institutions money into it. It's worked a treat.....'deal of the decade', perhaps it is after all!
the prophet: I believe there are a number of fundamental flaws in the Edison sum of the parts report: The details of the Edison SOP valuation is given in their April 2015 initiation note. They give EBITDA's of Aerospace and Defence (A&D) companies. The sort of companies Edison use include the likes of Rolls-Royce, QintetiQ, BAE systems etc. The market caps range from £113m to £18bn, most of the companies featured are large companies and I question whether a comparison with TPG at market cap £11m is in any way valid. They also look at the valuation of a number of specialist engineers, which may well be closer to the mark. The smallest, Hayward Tyler, has a market cap of £72m, but, again, most of the companies featured have market caps in the £250m-£3.5bn rang, so I again question whether a comparison is valid, I think not.It is perhaps noteworthy that the two smallest specialist engineers, Avingtrans and Hayward Tyler with market caps of £100m and £72m respectively come in with EBITDA of 5.5 and 6.5. Therefore I would suggest that Edison's 10.3 EBITDA is a very full valuation indeed, I would suggest half that would be nearer to the mark, given the examples above and that, imo, is being generous.I just can't see anyone coming in and paying 10.3 EBITDA for ACI. Moving on to the next part of the Edison calculation, Edison value E&P as zero, probably fair enough, although I doubt if you will find anyone to take them off your hands, so possibly a minus zero. Edison then deduct £3.9m from their valuation for 'three times central costs', although the 2014 and 2013 annual report gives central costs in each year as £2m, and that excludes exceptional costs which don't seem particularly exceptional, be it opening the Slough centre, or closing it, or the very hefty £900K it cost in advisers and fees for buying the Wellman companies. Anyway, perhaps they are assuming the costs will be £1.3m this year, then applying what looks like a fairly arbitrary '3 times' to that figure. The trouble with the Edison methodology is it grossly overstates the value of ACI for the reasons given above. Nobody is going to come along and pay £30m for ACI. But, if we worked on the basis that miracles can happen, then that £30m will not be fully reflected in the TPG share price as what will be left will be a bunch of central costs, a loss making/break even E&P process combined with an investor deep distrust of the current management due to their track record of shareholder value destruction. Or, put it another way, the market won't trust them to use the cash wisely. Edison's bottom line on the SOTP valuation gives an 'implied fair value of 7.3p', which is a market cap of £30m. That looks hopelessly over optimistic,imo and for the reasons stated above, but one would think there should at least be some upside from the current £11m market cap.
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