|20/3 record prices in west midlands,
btl semi end of runway at Elmdon airport sold last wk
after 36 viewings in ten days,
bubble looks ready to pop!
looked what happened to similar spikes in 72, 89, 06,
|Good post walbrock but the question I would ask is where is the growth going to come from. So far growth has come from ever increasing estate agent sign ups but they are now saturated. If they are to then rely on higher subscriptions then this won't be a growth company. E.g. It is far more valuable signing up more estate agents then raising subs.Also I'm not sure that they are that dependent on house prices either as they also advertise rentals. Which is probably a good thing. Remember the EPS has increased in no small part down to buy backs. Whilst this is ok, it doesn't indicate a growing company as share price is to some degree artificially heightened. I think the next stage will be turning from a growth stock to a strong dividend company. Unless the management have some other secret ideas like emulating purple bricks (which would have been brilliant).|
|On the technical analysis front, RIGHTMOVE’s monthly chart looks bullish, there are support patterns on the RSI chart.
RIGHTMOVE’s RSI chart shows it never gone below 50.
|Looking at RMV, I can say it is a great company. The fundamentals are super competitive. They can:
1. Raise advertising fees from £117pcm in 2004 to £830pcm today, an annual compound rate of 17.7%.
Meanwhile, UK House prices compounded at 3.9%/annum, or a total of 58% in that same period.
2. Cash operating margins is at 60% from 30%, a decade ago.
3. They return all free cash flow to shareholders, that is £130m in total.
4. People is sleeping on the company’s free cash flow generation. It is greater than current liabilities 2.5 times.
5. It accounts for 70% of the UK property internet portal driving 11.7bn visits with visitors spending 1bn minutes per month on their website.
The Economics of RIGHTMOVE (and ZOOPLA)
A typical fee an estate agent makes is between 1% and 3% of the property value sold. So, typically a property value of £250,000 gives the estate agent’s £2,500 to £7,500 in fees. I can hear the thoughts on your mind telling me this:
£842/month multiply by 12 = £10,104 of fees to RIGHTMOVE.
Remember, property transaction is a volume business. The UK does over 100,000 property transaction per month, or over 1.2m transactions per year, also there are 157,000 estate agents. So, one estate agent (on average) sells 7 or 8 properties per year. In total, an estate agent makes around £17,500 to £52,500 in properties transaction.
Are there headwinds for RIGHTMOVE? Definitively.
-These depend on UK Home price appreciating.
-Property volume transaction increasing steadily.
If both these factors decline, RIGHTMOVE is in trouble, as more estate agents will leave, unless fees prices come down, which will hit margins. To read more, click on http://bit.ly/2mLQUL0|
|For info. I sold out of rmv. Had held for approx 4 years. Had 24% roi per each year of holding. I simply can't see where the growth would lie, margin is already fantastic and holding for an acquisition is just gambling. It is still a great company and will do very well but when growth stock slows then it can fall rapidly until PE is at a reasonable level. Thanks to the management at rmv for your great work.|
|Purplebricks is going to be a problem for RM.
|This stock will definitely be hitting the buffers. We are a small lettings agency and we have been hit by a 20% hike in fees... Therefore we will be cancelling our membership for sure... That is on top of any already 13% hike the other year. Whereas over the same 3year period Zoopla have hiked our fees a grand total of Zero.. We for one will be spreading the word about boycotting Rightmove bearing the absurd price rises into account.|
|Has this stock hit the buffers? Can't see any further growth potential other than by share but backs.Management don't seem to be interested in international growth and with near enough 90% of agency sighted up this could be negative for the company. Thinking of selling. Any thoughts?|
|Out this afternoon for 19% net of dealing charges.
Wish all my trades were as good!|
|Is that a new high I see before me?|
|Don't take the following statements and facts as company bashing, but reviewing Rightmove's long-term past performance.
Fact 1: During 2004 to 2015, net margins have improved from 20% to 57%, as advertising fees intake grew.
Fact 2: 120m+ unique visitors go to its website per month and gets to see 1.2m properties put up by 20k estate agents.
Fact 3: The company has returned £160m+ in dividends and bought back £500m worth of shares for cancellation since 2005.
Fact 4: However. revenue and earnings growth has averaged the "Mid-teens" for the past four years, but share price grew at a compound rate of 28% in the past years, therefore "outperforming" Rightmove's operating performances.
Fact 5: Zoopla, the competitor is building up its property list to 800k properties and has an opportunity to take market share.
For more facts: hxxp://walbrockresearch.com/rightmove-gained-1250-since-ipo-is-it-time-to-sell/
There is more of a chance for Rightmove's shares to decline by 40% to £23/share which will fairly value the business at 20 times' earnings. This will be a healthy correction for the company.
Remember the same thing happened to Next when it was valued at £80/share, now the shares stood at £50/share.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in Rightmove and the opinions are expressed as my views.|
|Nope 2% so far - like the general market|
|Seems to have had a large drop. Anyone know why?|
|Never held, watching though....
RMV vs. Basket of housebuilders?
None too sure.....|
|Took a decision to exit post the EU Referendum vote. However, this is still the gorilla in it's sector. Re-entry point anyone?|
|just one London agent has lost 40k in commission this week
(cancellation of eight sales) its the discounts on new builds that will give
an accurate picture, the docklands was a very small area affected in 87/94
average prices just 175k
so how are London BTL's going make mortgage re-payments on 500/700k+
"v" rent coming in, if there is no capitol appreciation to fall back on,
on the anticipation c/a was the whole purpose/basis of the investment,
wk-end press, brexit has created a gazunderers charter,
primeresi said, day before vote, blt is a ticking time-bomb sell off predicted
2018/19, up to date news on maskells site
the builders have bounced back post-brexit but two thirds of chains
are STARTED by BLT's, many of which are thinking of selling up, not jumping
in on inflated prices, the market could come to standstill
need government incentives ASAP but their hands are tied having just brought in stamp duty hike etc
27/7 seems crazy to buy in on this rise, of course the last 12 months are
the peak of the boom, the next few yrs will be different
brexit popped the bubble, brexit is going to hurt
18/2/17 TIMES, housing market slumps, except middle England, prices have held up well
|"Liberium reiterates BUY and 5000p target"
Good job no-one listened to Liberium then.|
|This is brutal!|
|Liberium reiterates BUY and 5000p target.|
|Thinking this stock may have hit a high. Only do so many shares you can buy back before eps starts looking iffy.|
|Estate agents prepare to move out of property portal OnTheMarket
Hundreds of estate agents have turned against the challenger property portal OnTheMarket a year after it launched, as they prepare to ditch the start-up following a row about fees.
|40 about to be breached - humph|
|Yep, close to a doubler now from purchase in December 2014. More to come imo.|
|New high - is that an inverse H&S I see before me - target 4600?|
|Assault on precinct 4200?|