Rightmove Share Discussion Threads

[the white house] 11/5/2020 08:23

Gone long here 520 December. Had 2 posted letters thru door from agents in last week. Signs of life. Can see both forced sales and those living in London etc who can now wfh for 2,3,4 days a week moving out to detached in country or seaside. If you only need to commute 1 or 2 days a week you can now live a lot further from the City. Can see in a couple of months things picking up sharply

[tradeforce] 11/5/2020 07:32

Ocado Mk II ... LOL

[cantrememberthis2] 08/5/2020 15:17

Another hidden gem Recovery Play

[loafofbread] 08/5/2020 14:36

At least we agree on an earnings collapse this year, but as yet, no effect on the share price

I wonder if this is being pushed up by the very same hedge funds who have increased their short positions from £40M to £120M over the last 5 weeks?

Suck in others on the rise and increase.

Along comes a Muddywaters hit and payback.

[growthpotential] 07/5/2020 20:06

Right and then the next year earnings double and PE back to 21, learn what moves markets when

[growthpotential] 07/5/2020 19:54

Learn what moves markets when

[rochdae] 07/5/2020 19:40

Another good day here. Chart trending up.

The point about shorting a good company is well made. Short failing companies, not those who are good at what they do.

Agents will be more desperate for RMV's services when things get back to normal, which will be soon imo. It's the public who determine prices via search hits. Just as with advertising. Money follows success.

Going way higher imo...

Roch

[tradeforce] 07/5/2020 11:09

LoB,

With your experience, what would you expect, percentage wise, number of estate agency failures/closures due to this farce we are suffering?

In my head I reckoned between 25-35%, it was not so easy before this, and with so many going "online only", and people will no longer want to trawl the high st with the virus still looming, many, many branches will close IMO.

[loafofbread] 05/5/2020 14:24

3000 agents now signed up (up from 600 a month ago.)

They will be lucky to reach half of last years revenue.

[pstick] 30/4/2020 16:13

Interesting note from Jefferies from their call with the "Say No To Rightmove" Campaign

The campaign's momentum is accelerating: Currently 1,350-1,450 owners, equal to 2,700 branches are signatories: 60-70 sign-up per day - line of sight on another 1,000 offices; the Acorn board has approved funding for the campaign - the team is now almost 8 full-time staff (4 in PR, 3 in admin, 1 hire coming in technology); trade press and word of mouth is driving awareness - the team has not proactively solicited support thus far; latest survey of members finds that 10% left RMV already, 71% will leave if there is no extension to the 75% fee suspension, 7% will leave no matter (just waiting to exit contract) and only 2% are happy.

Sargent doesn't fear a lack of support from the corporate agents: The corporates have less to gain given they pay a significantly lower ARPA; they are "sympathetic to the end goal" but are unlikely to join the campaign; this won't kill the campaign - it is the 10-12k branches (c.65% of UK total) owned by <5 branch agents that are the lifeblood of the campaign; these agents are where Rightmove's economic land grab has been most viciously felt (some single branch agents are paying £3k per month to Rightmove, c.4x a large corporate); these agents are therefore comfortably >65% of Rightmove's revenue and have been looking for an "Agents Unite"-type organisation.

Next steps? "Focus on the now": The campaign is using the 4-month period of 75% Rightmove fee suspension to build membership, learn agents' issues, institutionalise that feedback and decide on how to best deploy the collective power it has created. It is unlikely that a grand single act of disruption will take place (though a fee boycott was suggested by some agents, but not supported by Rob). The guiding principles are to: 1. Let agents be the agents of their own disruption; and 2. Tell Rightmove that agents "won't be bullied by a supplier".

"Rightmove needs to change its business model": The current fight is a fight Sargent foresaw 10-years ago, mentioned to Rightmove even back then, and then did nothing to address (Acorn, paid RMV £488k in 2019 and has yet to give notice pending the end its current contract). Sargent believes the best path to a sustainable relationship between agent and portal is a more equitable pooling of risk (mentioning, inter alia, a "fee on success" model). The "cost per lead" value proposition that Rightmove "bangs us over the head with" isn't that relevant, especially not at £1,000 per month - the value-added functionality RMV highlights has "little credibility and the industry hates being charged for it". The sweetspot ARPA is £300-500 - but Sargent thinks the opportunities in data and advertising means a portal could thrive without charging the agent any fee.

[loafofbread] 24/4/2020 14:03

I agree the company is excellent.

I'm in Exeter and we are all closed.
Some will not reopen.
20% of staff will not be needed going forward.
RM is the 3rd largest cost after rent and staff.

I think a PE of 40+ is to much for a company that is losing agents and reducing fees.

Keep safe.

[jkc147] 23/4/2020 15:16

Using some common sense would suggest investing in the great companies and shorting the weak companies. It's strange why some consider shorting a company the quality of RMV (dominant market position, huge margins and ROCE) when there are hundreds of the weak to choose from in normal times, yet alone in today's environment.If competitors are having to give away services for free for such extended periods of time, maybe RMV will emerge from this even stronger than they went in.

[237gmoney] 23/4/2020 14:39

Loaf, I disagree.I think you need to look at the bigger picture here and ignore some of the recent events.RM have a 76% market share as per the strategic report with the 2018 year end results with over 20,500 agents. The current problems will not shift the dial that much even with Zoopla giving 12 months away for free.Once the housing market is back up and running normal service will be resumed and RM will be trading back at pre crisis levels.That's my take anyway.

[loafofbread] 23/4/2020 12:22

I think RM have offered 75% off fees for the next 4 months at a revenue cost of £75M.

I've just been offered 12 months free with Zoopla if i resign for 24 months. so first 12 months free then my usual monthly fee for the 2nd 12M

Looking at RM f/y results end of last year.

Revs £280M
Operating Profit £200M
Cash £30M

Mcap at £4.75 is £4.2Billion so PE of say 20?

This year we already have the £75M hit but they are going to have to offer far more to keep agents happy which takes this year to perhaps less than £100M profit and a PE of 42!

Short from anywhere around here?

Any thoughts?

[toffeeman] 07/4/2020 20:52

You don't really think it will get back there do you....?

[tradeforce] 07/4/2020 19:22

Toffee,

700p would be the answer to that! Easy.... :-)

[toffeeman] 07/4/2020 15:22

Problem is - what IS the right price at which to short this?

[tradeforce] 07/4/2020 14:44

Stopped out.

But the insanity is that the value is the same as 4-6 months ago. By an metric that is not rational. I shall lick my wounds and wait for another moment, which will come, just as with Carpetright.

[rochdae] 07/4/2020 13:45

Yes, the markets are always ahead of events. So the fall to 400 was what rightmove are now facing. The move back to 525 is what rightmove will face next month.

But things can change.

[cashandcard] 07/4/2020 11:30

I see short sellers are getting massacred across the board. Too bad, anyone shorting now is a month too late. This has got further to go after last month. 550-600p imo.

Cash

[1 pound here we come] 02/4/2020 07:08

A large deposit requirement is to help cover the risk of significant property devaluation. It will also help to kill the market.