Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 09/5/2024 15:17

In a word, would that be stochastic? Cue the call my bluff theme tune ;)

To stay in the same groove on my stuck record here, I think this month will either be ok or brilliant. Yes, I realise that's a rain or go dark prediction, but the likelihood here is that we will either continue to bobble along with 2 forward & 1 back on what they have told us, or...

Something very significant for OXB will drop and at that point our guidance changes and so does the share price.

Might be malaria. As Plutonian pointed out a long time ago, J&J have had very public supply problems in meeting their commercial needs. BMS have also experienced similar woes. Literally too many possibilities to guess from, but OXB are now in a very happy position of being there for anyone (with money and a need of our services).

[rathean] 09/5/2024 14:58

It's important to see a distribution/ accumulation phase before the next leg up. There's no predicting SPs, probabilities suggest further pipe laying before the next move all imo dyor ofc.

[dr darkstar] 09/5/2024 14:44

My experience of broker targets is that they're rarely worth the paper they're written on. What I do know is that the third attempt at 350 and a close above that will move us significantly higher again

[harry s truman] 09/5/2024 13:53

A good news story there Marcus. There must be a huge amount of satisfaction for the people working in labs everywhere when something like this turns out to be a success.

It's a bit like the story with Emily (first child with the CAR-T linked to us of course) where she awakened out of the post-treatment storm reaction to the sound of the hospital staff all gathered around her bed and singing happy birthday to her.

You'd need a heart of stone not to have something in your eye after that one.

[steeplejack] 09/5/2024 11:55

Spreadbetting and CFD sites carry a health warning.Over 70 per cent of punters lose money.If you're going to actively trade,you are in effect taking on the MMs and proprietary traders.It can be expensive fun.

[takeiteasy] 09/5/2024 11:43

I admire folks who trade these shares - buy at the bottom at 3.15 run up to 3.40 go back short and then long again at 3.15 rinse and repeat. It takes a lot more skill, patience and time than a LTBH option that is my way here...

[steeplejack] 09/5/2024 10:32

Target prices were originally employed by US brokers servicing high net worth private clients.Over the years,this rather simplistic methodology,sneaked into the world of research prepared for institutions.The target prices invariably have a greater cognisance of where the existing share price is now than where the price might be in 18 months time.Hence,you get the Investec analyst who simply shifts his target up and down with OXBs price as it moves from £15 to £2.A far from useful exercise.The stock recommendation is clearly key but i've never seen much merit in price targets.They are a broker's marketing tool.

[harry s truman] 09/5/2024 09:43

I find it really odd that we can have joint corporate brokers (RBC and JPM) with respective recent 12 month targets of 740p and 305p.

My honest best stab at an explanation for that one is the smallcap syndrome, where at the moment we remain under the radar and probably not of great interest to JPM.

It's been mentioned / hinted at on here before that OXB likely only retain JPM because the JPM healthcare conference is the biggest / most prestigious and first of the season. It's also the one where you primarily present to investors rather than scientists / medics. Having JPM as joint broker seems to pretty much guarantee a speaking slot there.

[harry s truman] 09/5/2024 09:35

I'm sure you won't be alone Ch1ck, wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Brucie has done the same thing - but it's all fine and each to their own.

If I had sold at every high and bought at every low over the last 2 decades then I would be a very wealthy man, but I don't have that ability.

What you are essentially gambling against here is that the assumed looming big news which has stopped the directors buying isn't imminent. If it is then you will miss that gain with the strategy to make more.

[ch1ck] 09/5/2024 09:29

Sold 3/4 yesterday looking to buy back lower

[chillpill] 09/5/2024 08:40

Agree takeiteasy.

Talk is cheap and all that but by all accounts OXB have a dynamic team in place.

[takeiteasy] 09/5/2024 07:18

I think after all of the troubles over the past couple of years and collapsing SP, some brokers may take the view that they want to see 2 or 3 sequential reporting periods ticked off with steady progress before committing to a recommend /buy position.

Each may have their own research protocols to follow which we do not know the details so we can only surmise - but in pure numbers a 50% higher share price target seems to be in the right direction ...

[bigbigdave] 09/5/2024 07:10

JPMORGAN RAISES OXFORD BIOMEDICA PRICE TARGET TO 305 (210) PENCE - 'NEUTRAL'

[trickydicky1] 08/5/2024 22:26

I would imagine a bigger issue arising from Wuxi’s sanctioning might be a firming up of industry pricing

[harry s truman] 08/5/2024 20:15

Catalent are being bought out by NN to make their slimming drug for American compulsive eaters so probably looking in a different direction now.

Wuxi, well I'd imagine that they would be thrilled with Seb's 2 serious enquiries per week, but what if the US votes to put sanctions on them?

[trickydicky1] 08/5/2024 19:54

I wonder how many new CDMO clients are looking to place work with Catalent and Wuxi at the current time.

[harry s truman] 08/5/2024 17:56

Apologies for any confusion. I was simply giving the quote from '21 results which led to the story about building their UK footprint. The year following that MoU becomes the deal as below:-

Oxford Biomedica has signed a 10-year MSDA with Serum Life Sciences Ltd (Serum, a subsidiary of Serum Institute of India), for the manufacture of a variety of vaccine and protein-based therapeutic products. This agreement follows on from the Memorandum of Understanding agreed with Serum in 2021. The MSDA allows for Serum to access the Group’s Oxbox facility to manufacture a variety of vaccines at scales of up to 1,000L.

Serum is also able to secure exclusive access to one of the two new large scale multi 2,000L facilities in the second phase of Oxbox facility expansion for a period of 10 years from facility readiness. Serum will be required to commit to a minimum order value over the relevant period in order to secure exclusive access to the new
large-scale suite.

[marwalker] 08/5/2024 16:50

So Serum signs a memorandum of understanding a big step forward from reserving manufacturing spaceExpect a deal in a few months more likely weeks

[mirabeau] 08/5/2024 16:28

Looking perky on a pretty drab day

[harry s truman] 08/5/2024 16:16

Stuart's Q&A words from 2021 results day here Phil:-

And that provides a commercial solution, not just for our existing partners on
lenti, but it provides a solution for AAV as well, and then, potentially, other
vaccine work, which we can do. And we've recently signed a memorandum of
understanding with Serum on how a future collaboration will look. We're very
excited by that in terms of us helping them with their strategy of building up
their capacity and capabilities in the UK for vaccine manufacture.

[harry s truman] 08/5/2024 16:13

The problem with the news is that OXB have said they aren't announcing routine stuff anymore, just as they aren't going to maintain a pipeline page. I'm sure one of the reasons for the latter is simply that it would look bizarre now with something like 30 programme lines all marked confidential / undisclosed.

Roch (in his set piece at the results) rolled out that KPI table again which replaces the pipeline page with simple totals, but without saying how he intends to share it or how often.

Aside from that minor gripe about transparency, we can pretty much say for sure that almost all of our new run of the mill work from now on isn't going to be RNS news.

Back to the assumption here that big news would be the most likely reason none of the insiders bought and what could it be?

You have seen my recurring malaria vaccine guess, but that's 2+ years old now and in that scenario Serum are the contractor to Oxford University and we would be helping Serum meet demand / obligations.

But as they told us at the interims, based on our performance during the pandemic, we seem to have become very favoured by the vaccine lab at Oxford University directly.

So we know (this isn't a guess) that OXB are on with 2 vaccines for Oxford University. These are Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Lassa fever.

MERS is like covid passed by camels and Lassa is a haemorrhaging disease a bit like Ebola.

Why us? Because these vaccines are based upon Oxford’s ChAdOx platform – the same as their COVID-19 vaccine which OXB proved itself really good at making.

Virus and vaccine train spotters amongst us also know that the OU lab got granted a lot of money late last year for the Junín virus vaccine. Junín virus is like Lassa virus but in Argentina and is again based upon the ChAdOx platform, so there's no golden deerstalker as a reward for working out who is prime candidate lined up to make that - and so on.

But I don't think any of that (great though it is) would be big enough to have the insiders all embargoed.

If it's not ever more new early stage work, then surely it has to be something in commercial supply as that is where the big money is. My number 1 guess is still the malaria vaccine work, but a commercial supply deal for someone else would be second. The market size (number of patients) in malaria is enormous, but the vaccine is also very cheap. It's probably equally lucrative for OXB to make a bucketful of something over the same timeframe which is used in rarer treatments which cost 100,000x more. That field is too big to guess from.

[philh75] 08/5/2024 15:13

Interesting to note, Serum Life Sciences, the subsidiary of Serum Institute that invested in OXB - are actually UK based, so they may be building a UK footprint rather than just ties to UK businesses for supply, or it could be just a tax efficient vehicle for doing so.

[steeplejack] 08/5/2024 14:00

The Investec analyst has been far from proactive.He's pretty much followed the share price up and down for years.Now he turns a weak buyer following hard on the heels of Stifel's recent note which was nicely timed.The shares seem to have taken a liking to current price levels around 330p after last week's sprint.We might be needing fresh news to trigger further progress.

[harry s truman] 08/5/2024 12:33

I'll gratefully take any good news Edward, but the OXB story has been good for a while now with the post covid troubles all history. The guidance for both what's gone & what's coming has been there for a while and only seems to improve at each update.

Investec rode through all of that with a maintained hold, but now think it's a buy. Something has obviously tipped the balance for them, but as there is nothing new and obvious, presumably the OXB briefing for analysts has been a cracker?