Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Oxford Biomedica LSE:OXB London Ordinary Share GB0006648157 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.70p +6.73% 11.10p 11.12p 11.26p 11.26p 10.40p 10.80p 13,357,333 16:35:25
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 27.8 -20.3 -0.6 - 344.88

Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
22/1/2018
23:01
I like this new era of the share price re-rating but hope some of this Novartis money comes in before they do another placing. Now a 20p takeout doesn't look so far fetched, bring it on (before the huge market crash)
the bull
22/1/2018
22:51
11.2p It`s all about timing Bountyhunter , only 3 weeks out !
marcusl2
22/1/2018
22:17
Yes H, I don`t think we will be bored for most of 2018. Those jobs at OXB involving the transfer of technology intrigue me. There must be plenty going on in the background. HTTPS://youtu.be/4MxH3X9diSc?t=43
marcusl2
22/1/2018
21:44
Antreg, Very kind but I think it was one of my longer non-answers... We just don't know do we? Most of us are here because of a lot of faith in OXB and the people who work there, but we don't know how it will all work out in the end. AK often said that his aim was to take OXB from being a biotechnology company to a pharmaceutical company, but I feel that's an unlikely outcome now. In the Vulpes interview SD says that bio's usually either fail or get absorbed by large pharmaceutical companies upon success. I think that's probably as good a guide as any as to the way he sees it and thus what is most likely to happen. But we have to wait and see.
harry s truman
22/1/2018
21:33
Marcus, I think Feb 2018 would be tough to get right, and given our performance in the recent (5 month long) thread sweepstakes, a 1 year forecast for Feb 2019 could be a bit of a comedy. But I'm happy to hand the sweep baton to someone more worthy ;) The year-end sweep (won by Zorija) is below Eithin - 50p sharelog3 -25.5p Antreg & Volsung - 25p Wonga - 22.5p HST - 22p algernon - 21p luxus - 20p Northstand - 19.5p Philh75 - 19p cossie - 18.75p asat91 & Jasierock - 18p gutterhead & icejelly - 17p trovax - 16.5p rrr - 16p ewads - 15.5p Marcus - 15p Mr Roper - 14.5p Pram - 14p R0bT - 13.8p mcsquared - 13.5p Beanol - 12.5p bountyhunter - 11.2p WiltshireRam - 10.5p Zorija - 9.3p
harry s truman
22/1/2018
21:32
Once again Harry a great post.
antreg
22/1/2018
21:08
Wave, Apologies for the earlier cryptic answer. Usually the short ones are from my phone as the touchscreen keyboard and I don't get on. Let me expand a bit:- Novartis have a worldwide non-exclusive licence to use OXB's LentiVector. They paid an up front for that and have agreed a royalty licence on sales which has variously been described by JD as low single digit, very low single digit and next to nothing. I've never heard JD ever put a figure on it and the percentage you quote comes from an analyst's estimate. I have seen 2 (or maybe 3) different analyst estimates of the royalty value to OXB and I'm pretty sure that JD won't have told them - so they will be estimates. The last thing that JD will want is that figure floating about whilst he tries to negotiate new deals (particularly if the Novartis deal was done at a time when OXB might not have had the strongest hand). I'm of the opinion that it's probably 1%, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's not a smaller number. Marcus thinks it's a higher number, with JD's phraseology there guiding us to a number in line with the one that you mention. I'm not convinced, but will be delighted if it's true, as whilst my 1% of peak year billion dollar sales might be 10m USD, the other is obviously 3x as much. But both Tim and JD have previously said, whilst deflecting questions about the royalty, that our money is made in manufacturing and product development - to the point (I seem to remember) where Tim advised there wasn't a large payment milestone for commercialisation of the drug (often normal), but it was instead for reaching a milestone in product development where OXB could demonstratively produce what Novartis were asking for. What Pram notes is absolutely true. The Novartis application and licence grant is based on OXB's process. If they want to replicate that in their own factories then I'd assume that they would need to licence our process. That might be part of the current deal and it might not, but they won't want to continue indefinitely with flying batches of LentiVector out of Oxford. Besides which there will come a point where OXB can't produce any more without a 3rd factory. So, whilst there are other lentiviral vectors (neither Kite nor Juno use ours), and whilst there is a worldwide capacity shortage even though the gold rush hasn't really hit full speed yet (only 2 CAR-T drugs approved so far?), Novartis would be insane to drop OXB now as it would cost them very dearly. The time and money taken to retrial to use someone else's vector renders that option a non-starter (it would leave Kite in prime position), and to make the licensed LV independently of OXB is one of those things that probably sounds an awful lot easier than it actually is. OXB have had a very long time to perfect LV and they are very good at it. Not only that, they constantly improve (bioreactors and such), but the underlying point here is that in brain injections, eye injections and now treatment of individual cells which amounts to hundreds of patients and many, many years of patient safety data, they haven't had a bad result. Efficacy might not have always been as hoped for with the early tiny doses, but it's been proved a very safe product, engineered to the highest quality and capable of carrying one of the biggest payloads of genes. Novartis won't walk away from that. I think Marcus linked to a presentation by Dr James Miskin where he basically says that OXB's approach is quality, quality and then some more quality. It's a part of one of only 2 licensed products and this is a reason why. I've digressed. Your original question was how much is OXB worth to Novartis and the answer is a lot, but it's very difficult to quantify just how much. JD has said that one of OXB's advantages comes from their ability to pull off very difficult things - the experienced gained by 20 years of trying if you like - and that's just a part of the organisation. The second punch is that they manufacture it too. If CAR-T works out as planned and Novartis want their own US factories for LentiVector (which they will need) then they will need OXB to show them how. If they just buy a factory and put the same machines in there, then they will have to learn every lesson that OXB have already learned. For me there are a couple of reasons why Novartis might buy OXB. One is for OXB's in-house pipeline, and unless TroVax hits the back of the net in the prostate trial where it's used in combination with PrimeBoost, then that almost certainly means ProSavin (which of course has yet to show how it will fund a second trial) - so some way off for that possibility. The other (and far more compelling reason for me) is to turn their non-exclusive licence for LentiVector into an exclusive one. They already have some rights of veto for competing products in one small area of use for LentiVector, but owning the I.P. makes it theirs to deny to the rest of the field in every application (apart from those already licensed of course). As mentioned above, it also gives them all OXB's acquired know how / experience / knowledge, coupled with 2 world class factories ready for the European CAR-T market. Let's say that the CAR-T market does explode, with Novartis gaining blockbuster ($1bn+) peak year sales in multiple indications. Whatever price that they would pay now for OXB would be discounted every year by the royalties that they wouldn't have to pay in the future. So they'd get arguably the best vector (Marcus had a video with a professor saying the lack of deaths in the Novartis trial was down to the way the vector worked), the ability to decide who gets to use that vector, the labs to develop the next generation and the factories to support their aim to dominate this market. You're going to have worked out by now that I've no idea how much OXB is worth to OXB (or the % importance of LentiVector to CAR-T as you put it, which is essentially the same thing). I'm torn with the answer. I think that the low royalty % is an indication that the lentiviral vector is just a way of modifying a T-Cell and ours isn't the only one. Conversely I think that on top of the royalty, OXB earn a lot from manufacturing and process development, and they know that Novartis have made their choice now. A bit like a marriage. I honestly think that as a vector supplier to a major player in a CAR-T industry which will become a more crowded market, then the value for that is quite finite. But LentiVector isn't just for CAR-T and this is really our stepping stone to better things via the cash it brings in. It all depends on whether Novartis are happy to let OXB take that route alone or if they want it all. If they do then they'll have to pay.
harry s truman
22/1/2018
19:43
The Wall Street Journal reports that so far in China, at least 86 people have had their genes edited, and there is evidence of at least 11 Chinese clinical trials using CRISPR. One of those trials, the WSJ found, began a year earlier than previously reported, putting the start of the first Chinese CRISPR trial in 2015.
marcusl2
22/1/2018
16:07
Juno Dec 1st 2016 18.85 now 86.02 OXB jan 22 2018 11p feb 2019 ? What about another sweep H ?
marcusl2
22/1/2018
15:51
Harry, whilst OXB will get 3% royalty (plus manuf fee) that's what they get, I'm talking about to what extent the NVS (and other) CarT's are IMPOSSIBLE without them, i.e. there is no substitute, in which case OXB have a lot of power going forward, re NVS this may be exercisable only when deal runs out, but you see what I mean.
wave5
22/1/2018
15:13
My best guess FWIW is that Trovax hasn't done much in any completed but unreported trials. I think it may be too blunderbuss a therapy on its own, activating unuseful (in relation to beating cancer's defence mechanisms) as well as useful bits of the immune system. 5T4 is an interesting target but it may need more subtlety to get at it, one possibility being by combining Trovax with other agents. Only my thoughts. rrr
rrr
22/1/2018
15:10
New job; Key Responsibilities and Accountabilities Support the Hd FP&A with the annual budget and other financial forecast cycles. Update the company’s financial forecast models & develop supporting analyses e.g. normalisation analyses, to improve understanding of underlying business trends. Co-ordination of the monthly rolling revenue forecast process, working closely with commercial colleagues and Financial Analyst. Support Hd FP&A in working with the Project office to develop value adding reporting/analysis on the profitability of OXB’s projects, to accurately understand margins and feedback into future project pricing. Maintain Analyst database to record external financial forecast benchmarks published about OXB for comparison with internal forecasts Assist in the review of the monthly management accounts to ensure accounting accuracy and to monitor financial performance. Provide adhoc project support to Hd FP&A as needed
marcusl2
22/1/2018
15:04
OXB report finances in the spring. Earnings can then be extrapolated by Edison who will possibly apply a P.E. to that. Prospects look very good e.g. DLBCL should be a good earner especially when 2nd line use happens. If they can get the in-house drugs moving that will add tremendous value.
marcusl2
22/1/2018
14:36
A close above 11.5 would be very bullish
dr darkstar
22/1/2018
14:29
Wave,OXB's low single digit royalty (as quoted by JD) would seem a good figure to start with, but that raises the long running discussion on just what that figure actually is.
harry s truman
22/1/2018
14:24
Swans,No is the short answer.If you ask OXB then they will tell you that the 3rd party charity funded trials are not within their control and that they have little more idea than us. Take that as you will.Perhaps of more use is that I've read posts from 2 contributors here on this BB who have contacted the trials directly on behalf of friends.SKOPOS trial is still due to read out, but it is very late now.
harry s truman
22/1/2018
14:22
If someone could supply a, say, % importance of OXB's lenti (to CarT overall)then we can crunch some numbers but not until then and I don't know enough re the science.
wave5
22/1/2018
13:23
anyone know exactly where we are with trovax this time around
swans
22/1/2018
13:03
Juno's flagship JCAR017 cancer treatment line is expected to have global sales of around $3 billion Juno's JCAR017 is initially indicated for advanced non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). The problem is that Gilead's Yescarta was approved in the U.S. for this indication late last year, and Novartis' Kymriah is expected to be approved for NHL early this year. So, Juno is roughly a year behind the industry leaders, implying that the biotech may have a hard time convincing doctors to switch to its therapy. Unfortunately, the market apparently doesn't think safety will be enough to overcome Gilead or Novartis' first-mover advantage. That's not to say that the market is correct in its assessment of JCAR017's commercial prospects, but Juno's stock may have trouble gaining ground until its lead therapy proves otherwise. ( Naaatt ! ) HTTPS://www.fool.com/investing/2018/01/04/why-juno-therapeutics-stock-cooled-off-in-december.aspx
marcusl2
22/1/2018
12:50
Celgene to buy Juno Therapeutics for $9 billion Shares of biotech Juno, already up 50% on deal hopes, skyrocket on actual Celgene $9 billion offer Celgene agrees to buy rest of Juno Therapeutics it doesn't already own for about $9 billion in cash to gain access to Juno's pipeline of CAR-T cancer drugs. Celgene already owns 9.7 percent in Juno and will offer $87 per share. Premarket prices of Juno Therapeutics jump on the news. Plz get Car T 5T4 into phase I/II
marcusl2
22/1/2018
12:23
lets smash that 11p glass ceiling OXB!
volsung
22/1/2018
12:22
sc - think you are right.
icejelly
22/1/2018
11:57
Suspect the 10.9s are sells well over the published bid.
small crow
22/1/2018
11:22
I thought as much.
small crow
22/1/2018
11:16
On March 18, Mercury passes about 4 degrees from Venus and DLBCL has been approved!
marcusl2
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