Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 21/11/2024 10:02

I don't think that is anything other than Novartis doing what we see mega-pharma (especially BMS) do quite often, which is to spend a relatively small amount of cash (for them) now, to get some rights to something which might turn out to be the next big thing in ten years time.

If I read Vyriad's website correctly then the modified LV which Novartis have secured some rights to hasn't even been tried on people yet. If so then that will be a long time and a lot more Novartis money before (if successful in the trial / approval process) it is sold in competition to OXB.

How it would compare to OXB re payload, targeting and such I don't know, but if the T-Charge currently in trials for them using OXB's vector works out well, then the Vyriad vector will have to start looking a lot better else they will simply drop it in a business review and stick with what they have. This is especially true when the speed of approval (i.e. arriving early) is a lot more important than arriving later with something slightly better.

I think it was Stuart at JPM who gets asked about similar and he replies that we can only ever really look 5 years ahead as anything much beyond that is pretty much anyone's guess as to what comes next. Remember back when we did the Homology deal, it was because the best paid advice said AV was dead in the water, LV would only ever be niche and thus OXB needed a good AAV.

[philh75] 20/11/2024 21:25

I wonder why they’ve decided to diversify Lv provider for new products, due to our closeness to Novo?

[harry s truman] 20/11/2024 19:13

Yesterday I was perhaps a little unfair when I wrote that I thought slide 17 was really the only "new" thing / point of interest for us.

By that I meant that they have added company logos for Coave, Transgene and Kalivir.

Coave had already been announced by ABL and ABL Strasbourg is the former Transgene manufacturing facility and is situated next door to their labs / offices, so those 2 could reasonably have been guessed.

Kalivir Therapeutics seems at first genuinely new to us and is based in the US, but read further and it's a MVA vector and I remember Seb saying that ABL had good MVA experience, so I think this too is probably ABL and therefore all 3 of these new names to us have come via the ABL purchase. Still good to know, but likely not "new" partners.

When I read the whole thing again today I noted the approvals on slide 9. Anvisa being the Brazilian regulator and PMDA the Japanese.

PMDA could mean something more progressed than we dare hope with Santen which would be about the right time for trialling something in the clinic. Alternatively it could be Astellas who are partnered with Kalivir. My guess is Santen though as that is most likely to be the one trialling in Japan (imho).

Re the question of who we could be partnering with in Brazil to require inspection / approval from their national regulator. I'll have to ponder that one.

[connello] 20/11/2024 15:30

Jefferies Presentation is on the Website

[harry s truman] 20/11/2024 12:51

Jez,

2 quick (for me) points:-

1) They are very busy. That 85% utilisation they projected for the suites next year is very good / doesn't get much better. This sort of begs the question (Phil's point above) of why they aren't rushing to bring more capacity online - but maybe the other big news story with NH explains that. The jobs they are advertising pretty constantly seems to back up the very busy statement at least.

2) Other advertising. I think as 100% pure CDMO they have to advertise / visit every relevant conference. Wasn't it Leverhulme who penned "early to bed, early to rise, it's no bloody good if you don't advertise"? They can probably live off word of mouth for LV quite nicely, but for AAV they will need to sell as it won't be immediately obvious to many that a company famous for lots of firsts in LV now offers AAV too.

[jezmundo] 20/11/2024 11:40

This stock is marginally better than watching paint dry. Like Harry, i am forever the optimist. But the continual stream of OXB advertisment's i am seeing on various pharma sites, makes me nervous. Are they getting desperate, why the need to advertise ALL year round!!!

[philh75] 19/11/2024 21:31

Great post, Harry.

[takeiteasy] 19/11/2024 19:31

some serious consolidation here across the sector even now hitting the "big 2" GLP1 plays - so everything is relative as they say, even our OXB share price :)

[harry s truman] 19/11/2024 14:21

It's obviously something I've pondered myself gh, and I think the magic number is somewhere around what Serum paid.

Let me give you my logic (or lack of it) :-

At the moment OXB struggles to shake off the covid work. Some recent news articles have actually headlined "Lossmaking vaccine manufacturer...".

Next year OXB will make a profit (a small one yes, but finally that "lossmaking" monkey off our backs - if I can still say that without a police visit at 4am).

A profitable CDMO should trade on 5.5x sales on average. OXB have said a projected FY2024 revenue range of £126 million to £134 million and better than 35% on that for 2025.

Can we say £180m revenue next year as a round number? x 5.5 = somewhere around £10 per share as a fair value.

Then you need a bid premium. Pick your number but 50% would have Serum not losing face on their 3% (just).

[gutterhead] 19/11/2024 14:08

The “bid” number will be an interesting one indeed. Making a friendly offer but not wanting to be seen to overpay is a tricky one…all that said, the overall number is like petty cash to Novo.
Interesting times and removes the hardest decision for me..knowing when to sell

[harry s truman] 19/11/2024 13:34

Slide 17 - look at the new names.

Good set of slides but still at interims for the KPI stuff it looks, so hard to guess anything from that.

[bedford1976] 19/11/2024 12:25

I'm more than happy with my OXB investment the management are switched on and the future looks positive. I hedged my position in Cambridge Cognition with OXB and that has proved worthwhile. In the long term both busineses being great examples of business at its best and creating employment for highly educated graduates

[harry s truman] 19/11/2024 11:45

Gareth, don't believe snide comments from people who have a long history of looking down on and criticising other people's efforts whilst lazily contributing sfa themselves.

This is a great company and if you want to be part of of an online community which is largely actually enthusiastic about that then you do it, but to be fair I can't ever remember them dropping a pre-emptive RNS about something which was going to be in a presentation later that day. They just wouldn't do that.

When they post the slides, I think most we can hope for will be an update of the KPI numbers, but we will see.

[marwalker] 19/11/2024 09:36

Gareth don't believe some of the hype spouted here just leads to disappointment

[gareth jones] 19/11/2024 08:06

No 7am RNS ahead of todays presentation at 10am, Jeffries Conference.

[harry s truman] 18/11/2024 21:00

Dom,

As I happily admit, I'm no market professional but I have watched OXB for a long time and I have a reasonable memory.

For most of this year, if we broke 100k daily volume then it was a very good day.

We could argue that was because OXB have said very little since the beginning of the year and of course there is the curious question regarding no senior staff share purchases this year as well.

Of late we are seeing much better volume (352,886 shares traded today) but somehow this is being managed by price movements during the day, whilst the end of day close is often within spitting distance of the opening price (today +0.24%).

What are the chances of that happening regularly by accident (the supply apparently matching demand almost perfectly)?

The order book at close has 3 bids of 275p, 280p and 285p all at exactly 5,000 shares and the offer side has 415p, 420p, 425p and 435p all at exactly 1,200 shares.

I'm sure that's done to get the correct closing price somehow and tomorrow they will all expire without being actioned.

I don't know what is happening but we are seeing a load of big volume days with no news from OXB to excite small punters in a recession market and no thresholds broken by people with deep enough pockets to have to notify (% over 3% if based here / % over 5% if outside).

The only scenario I can come up with is brokers working very hard to fill big orders at very tight prices with order sizes which will stay below declaration thresholds. But why?

Is simply "time" with OXB about to enter the year where it returns to profit from 3 years in the wilderness, or is it something else?

I wonder when OXB will upload tomorrow's Jefferies presentation, which of course will be our latest and only update from them since the interims. Hopefully they won't take forever with that.

Can't believe any of this today was down to some part-time guy who was notified as starting another job on exactly the same day.

[dominiccummings] 18/11/2024 16:44

If only there were a treatment to stop a share dropping 4% in half an hour with no news at all?

[harry s truman] 18/11/2024 15:51

I wasn't trying to trash it Super (if it read that way) but I'm guessing we agree that the currently secret commercial CAR-T multiple myeloma deal (or similar) is far more relevant to us as Cabaletta have nothing anywhere near a registration trial endpoint.

[supernumerary] 18/11/2024 15:33

For the 3 SLE patients there's only one Grade 1 AE, which is pretty minimal. The LN patient didn't do as well in that regard, but seems to have started off really ill, and ended up much better - zero immunosuppressants, and steroids in continuing taper. Her own testimony is highly positive, on slide 23. I think they'll be very happy with those lupus results.

Still very early days though, so unlikely to be significant for oxb for a long while yet, but good to hear positive results in a hard to treat disease.

[harry s truman] 18/11/2024 15:03

Not a doctor PB but it started off with perfect safety data, whereas now they seem to have events in SLE (see slide 16)
As for the actual results for the patients, see slide 24

These were patients with untreatable / treatment resistant disease, so any result is a plus - I would guess they were hoping for better though (even at this early stage).

Have to wait for the end of the trial for true long term data and that will be some time. As you will have probably worked out from recent posts, I don't think it will a consideration for us.