Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[dominiccummings] 29/4/2024 16:38

Impecable sluething Mr. President sir.

[harry s truman] 29/4/2024 16:26

The time has come, the Walrus said, to talk of many things:-

But for the moment I'll just do clue 1 from the webcast...

I've long been a believer that OXB actually try very hard to keep investors informed, even if it's something that strictly speaking they are stymied from saying outright for reasons of importance to someone else.

Whilst Seb was in full flow today (slide 13) I looked at the corporate logos there and thought "Sardocor? - that's a new one". So I looked on the personal information stealing site known as Google, and -

"Pioneers in the field of Cardiac Gene Therapy".

Why does this matter?

20th of March, OXB told us - "Furthermore, the Company has signed a new agreement with a US-based client specialising in cardiac gene therapy for the tech transfer, optimisation and manufacture of an adeno-associated virus-based process (AAV).".

In our ongoing game of clinical trial Cluedo, I would suggest that one is now probably solved.

If that works out then I wonder what the market is for the biggest killer in the western world?

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 15:50

Indeed. Looks I was being overly cautious. Would still like to see support though.

[kumala] 29/4/2024 15:10

Looking good.:)Happy days.

[reddirish] 29/4/2024 14:57

Yes. If I was not already well overweight on OXB - after today's leap, over 15% of my portfolio totals- I'd be buying more, even at 250.

[connello] 29/4/2024 14:43

Excellent Presentation. Did Numis ask the question on the US acquisition costs? (Fifth Question)

[takeiteasy] 29/4/2024 14:17

magnificent presentation indeeed - perfect summary!

[northstand] 29/4/2024 14:08

That Webcast is what I was waiting for,it smelt and oozed with confidence,it should give confidence to anyone doubting that all the cards are not on the table now and here begins the fresh start,if there isn't a significant rerating in the analysts forecasts after that then I don't know what will provoke it,magnificent presentation.

[steeplejack] 29/4/2024 14:05

They did pull a rabbit out of the hat of sorts,a 'sizeable' but not to be quantified US order.If you applied accepted analytical sales ratios to the company's projected revenue growth,then the price could easily quadruple from here on an eighteen month view.i don't normally indulge in such optimism!!

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 13:57

Harry S Truman29 Apr '24 - 13:51 - 7652 of 7654
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Well, what a webcast that was. To say I'm very pleased is an understatement. Maybe even Numis will rerate on the back of that one.
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Ah! I may have spoken too soon!
I'll take a listen.

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 13:56

Well there goes 1.40, but I'm not yet convinced until we see some support. Lots of peeps expecting hem to shoot the lights out this morning, which is not I believe what we saw?

A positive story nevertheless and very glad to have a position double the usual weighting on the Bruciefolio; though no doubt wimpy in relation to others here.

And of course delighted at long last to be in profit.
:)

[steeplejack] 29/4/2024 13:55

Yes,powerful and convincing.

[harry s truman] 29/4/2024 13:51

Well, what a webcast that was. To say I'm very pleased is an understatement. Maybe even Numis will rerate on the back of that one.

[boadicea] 29/4/2024 11:43

Although from the stability pov I might prefer to see a steady appreciation over 3 or 4 months up to the £4 - 5 pound range and contnuing beyond that, I must admit that the danger of a cheap t/o will remain at least until the price is in double figures. Far too many of my more promising holdings have already gone that way too cheaply. (I had only been in DARK a matter of weeks when that went!)

[harry s truman] 29/4/2024 11:36

Oxford Biomedica’s management team, led by CEO, Dr. Frank Mathias, CFO, Stuart Paynter, CCO, Dr. Sebastien Ribault and COO, Thierry Cournez, will be hosting a briefing and Q&A session for analysts at 13:00 BST

[harry s truman] 29/4/2024 11:27

I think there are some things which we all agree on, with a few being:-

1) Companies sell on prospects not history - e.g. reporting a record year of '21 still saw us smashed on the prospect of the AZ contract finishing early.

2) When we did the deals with Novartis (look at the dates vs the charts) it's rise then fall as the profit is taken, then as the news sinks in it slowly grows to much higher levels over a longer period of time.

3) What they have today is all the bad news in the kitchen sink and Stuart reassures that he has binding purchase orders for 50% of his 2024 guidance already.

4) The put option for the last 20% to Homology is now judged to be £9.3 million with an expected exercise date of 10 March 2025. Surely just offer them the money now and get that monkey off our backs?

5) This little passage from the results RNS below is all anybody really needs to know:-

Medium term financial guidance

Building on its leading position in lentiviral vectors, the Group aims to ultimately have a market leading position in the viral vector outsourced supply market across all key vector types. As previously guided, the Group expects a three-year revenue CAGR of more than 35% for the year's 2023-2026. With increased operational efficiencies, targeted cost management, and targeted investment, the Group expects to achieve Operating EBITDA margins in excess of 20% by the end of 2026, and to be profitable on an EBITDA level in 2025.

[harry s truman] 29/4/2024 11:08

Or would they be the bidders

[chillpill] 29/4/2024 10:31

Question is would Novo Nordisk or Biomerieux back a bid?

[steeplejack] 29/4/2024 10:15

I'm a stuck record on this subject but i feel that any number of industry players reading today's statement must reflect that there's a unique opportunity to buy a damn good business on the cheap.It all looks very promising.Impairment charges duly logged,revenue growing,profitability just round the corner,balance sheet in good fettle.it can't be spurious to speculate that OXB could follow the likes of Spirent and Darktrace.The shares were only recently trading around an eight year low.

[dominiccummings] 29/4/2024 10:12

#7643 Good point Chillpill. Before anyone gets too excited and cashes in on the rise, this share was at £12 or so BEFORE Covid. That's the sort of level it should belong to! I see a steady rise upwards as the new visibility of a rising share price reminds institutions that previously favoured OXB to buy back in for a big rise they know it deserves.

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 10:01

Stick or twist? From a cursory view 1.40 is a rather important point of resistance being the 200 sma as opposed to wma which we broke some time ago.

[chillpill] 29/4/2024 09:50

The real worry in the market had been the transition and potential necessity to raise cash.

Those fears are receding fast. Hopefully people now will focus on the upside.

As RBC said in their note they can see a pathway to £17.60 by the end of 2027. Be interesting to see if they maintain their 720p one year target.

[takeiteasy] 29/4/2024 09:50

thanks - very tight on line buying...down to a couple of £k and not seen that before. Always value your comments !