Happy Christmas all.
There are some great contributors on here.... thank you.
The share price games must stop sometime & look forward to the value here been realised in 2025. |
Time to wind down for festive season, enjoy, hopefully the New Year will bring an end to this large (ish) volume, small trade pattern. The futures bright the futures OXB? Tempus revelat omni. |
Also, it's a trial drug, not one of the 3 driving their billions of revenue. Over the top reporting is all. |
takeiteasy,
I haven't seen the story on the BB, but a lesson there of being built up to the most valuable listed company in Europe by the markets and then knocked back down again.
You would think that they had killed trial patients or something similar, yet it was simply achieving just short of their own target and the boss thinks that full data on the high dose only will be better. Result, billions wiped away.
Regarding the possible effect for us though, remember it's Novo Holdings the investment company who are the big spending fund. Novo Nordisk is the closely related drug company which they own the controlling stake in. |
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/12/20/novo-nordisk-faces-stock-market-bloodbath-weight-loss-drug-trial-disappoints/been out all day so if already posted pls ignore |
Its strange. I have been having conversations on these boards for more than twenty years. In that time we have had an information revolution, technology has pushed through barriers that would have seen impenetrable a few years ago, and in depth knowledge of any subject is just a few clicks away. Yet nobody has been able to show irrefutably why share prices move the way they do. |
Or, given the small number per deal, could it be churning the same shares over and over? |
301,153 shares traded on the day when half the country is either using up their leave shopping, knocked off early to beat the rush home or is wearing a paper hat and sat on a photocopier somewhere.
That would be very good volume for any day on a normal week. |
Can there REALLY be so many folks around either buying or selling odd numbers of shares but all under 500? |
New dealing strategy to keep a lid on the price. Hit it with low small trades first thing..... |
Biopharma’s Manufacturing Push and Other 2024 Trends
The Novo-Catalent deal now moving ahead highlights unprecedented investment in manufacturing, while also standing out as an exception to the unspoken rule of keeping M&As to less than $5 billion this year. |
Time for me to say "Happy Christmas", 'go dark', and sit back and enjoy the festive break. |
 Meanwhile, the juggernaut rolls on...
Shortly after unveiling a $400 million upgrade at its campus in Hillerød, Denmark, Novo Nordisk is reinforcing its commitment to the country by breaking ground on the first new production facility in its home country this century.
Novo Nordisk is laying out 8.5 billion Danish kroner (about $1.2 billion) to establish a brand-new manufacturing plant in Odense, Denmark, where the company eventually plans to hire on 400 permanent staffers.
The 40,000-square-meter (430,556-square-foot) modular and flexible factory will be kitted out to produce multiple drugs within rare disease indications, including hemophilia, Novo said in a Monday press release.
Construction has already kicked off on the new site, which will ultimately house both the primary production facility and a warehouse. The company is aiming to complete the project in 2027.
"The facility will utilize advanced technology and innovative equipment to ensure the highest quality to patients and meet the growing global demand for our life-changing medicines,” Henrik Wulff, Novo’s executive vice president of product supply, quality and IT, said in a statement. “We are proud to build on our heritage in Denmark and look forward to embarking on this journey in Odense, a well-connected city with a dynamic community and talented workforce."
Novo’s latest manufacturing announcement comes two weeks after the company said it would invest 2.9 billion kroner ($409 million) in a new quality control laboratory at its existing site in Hillerød. The project, which the company also plans to wrap up in the next three years, represents the Danish drugmaker’s largest investment in advanced quality control to date, Novo said earlier this month.
The two projects are just a piece of Novo’s outsized manufacturing expansion campaign, which has often focused on building out capacity for the company’s GLP-1 injectables for diabetes and obesity.
Back in June, the company said it would use $4.1 billion to construct a second fill-finish facility at its campus in Clayton, North Carolina, to chip in on production of the company’s metabolic blockbusters.
And, earlier this month, Novavax said it was selling a recombinant protein plant in the Czech Republic to Novo for $200 million in a deal the companies expect to close by the end of 2024. Once the transaction is complete, Novo will take control of the facility, along with about 300 staffers who currently work there.
Meanwhile, Novo’s sister company Novo Holdings recently got clearance from both the European Commission and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission to close out its $16.5 billion purchase of CDMO giant Catalent.
Under the accord, Novo Nordisk is slated to purchase three Catalent fill-finish plants from Novo Holdings for $11 billion. |
Glad you too are not convinced by the castles in the air stuffOf course I would like it to come true |
Xoptimist. Yes, but think of it as being an OXB takeover of some Catalent sites, financed by Novo. It answers questions as to board changes and confidentiality maintained. |
Or, look at it differently. Who would Novo acquire to inject expertise, management and intellectual property into their C> sites that are performing poorly? |
Xoptimist,
I think it depends on how you value the company, which I appreciate is stating the obvious.
We do know that the "average" CDMO should trade on more than 5x sales and an average CDMO isn't one which owns the patents on the LentiVector which is key to one approved treatment and a whole bunch in late trials.
What do we currently trade on with our market cap today of c£450m? A little over 3x. What if Novo simply accept that OXB is worth a lot more than its market cap and realise that there are enough shares in very few hands to stop a cheap bid - which has never happened during much worse times?
Today Samsung Bio (a very specialised CDMO) trades on 16.29x sales and nobody complains.
In a couple of weeks we go into a year where Frank said the sales would be better than +35% on this year. That basically means £180m but it might be better.
What if our major shareholders say that they want a bid premium on top of a fair valuation which the market price doesn't reflect?
I'd agree wholeheartedly that we would be in the hands of others, but I seem to remember that 13 holders have 70% of OXB. Admittedly one of those is Novo with 12% but most of the others against and it's still no - which is (I suspect) what kept the p/e wolves from our door when things were much worse.
5.5x 2025 sales is probably £10 per share and what if our major shareholders say they aren't prepared to sell for sector average and want compensating with a better valuation and bid premium?
I of course don't know and don't pretend to.
I agree with Dom's point in that Novo are in the happy position of being able to bid billions without visiting a bank for a loan or visiting a city firm for a placing / fundraising, so where would the leak come from?
Mentioned here before that I have no evidence other than circumstantial, but:-
The Novo Holdings boss has said they will buy specially selected bio service companies (like OXB which they already thought worth buying 12% of).
OXB has been extremely quiet and for the first time I can remember not a single insider has bought a share in the year (since Novo bid for Catalent).
Yes Catalent shareholders overwhelming accepted a low bid premium from Novo but they also knew that they were on a sticky wicket without Novo's money - which does sort of beg the question of how Novo plan to make a business success of that other than by simply throwing more money at it?
There are two sides to this, but let's forget about Catalent for a minute and say that Novo harboured desires of entering the Cell and Gene Therapy sector via OXB, then how do they make that work for them better than it has worked / is working for OXB? Surely the answer is simply scale, and on a scale which OXB wouldn't be able to afford alone anytime soon?
Flip back to Catalent and (if you believe the official version) then Novo only wanted Catalent for the 3 pen injectable sites which solve a supply shortage for their mega-selling weight loss drug.
Why didn't Novo just bid this notional $11bn for the 3 factories they wanted in a simple transaction / trade sale which happens a lot in the pharma industry and save themselves a lot of trouble?
I think there are two possible answers to that, with one being that Catalent said a firm no to them cherry picking, making it all or northing, or...
Novo thought, 2 birds with one stone - we buy the lot, sell the pen injectables to Nordisk then merge OXB with the Catalent C> / C> capable plants. Maybe the rest they will keep to run as a big CDMO or plan to slowly sell off the individual sites as and when that makes good business sense.
So yes I am guessing, but there is some supporting evidence behind it - even though it is circumstantial.
If Novo Holdings are keen to diversify into CDMO and are sold on those future forecasts for C> CDMO market size, then there is some logic in the business case here. |
You can be sure of it Dom. The other thing you can be sure of is that the big boys will, as always, get their own way and make it happen their way. We can only sit back and watch the show ....... |
I wonder if the activity every day at close, surely designed to stop the share price rising, is to make whatever premium is paid look better than it otherwise would? |
Xoptimist. Since everyone likely to be involved is already inside the company, Novo will not need bankers to progress the deal, and they already would have lawyers working on the Catalent deal, there is no need to expect a leak.
The only issue for Novo and our Chairman is what sort of premium is needed to satisfy the Vulpes, IM (who overpaid for the deal), and Serum who paid at the top of the market. Even 4 or 5 times the present price compared to the price they paid for Catalent is trivial to acquire IP and management to run their new group and transfer technology and good practice. |
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