Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 30/4/2024 10:23

I think the multitude of baby step ratings with the brokers (and this is just my guess) is a way of letting them do a u-turn in a relatively short time without looking too daft.

At the end of the day they are only people (admittedly very bright people) who have to weigh up prospects based upon some guidance from the company and their own judgement / experience. They can get it wrong.

Two examples here at different ends of the scale:-

When Joe at HCW gave a strong buy rating with 2,400 target for OXB when OXB were nudging 1,600 the vaccine work was 24/7 and looked like it would go on for at least another year / 18 months (government plans led by international bodies) and the economy was going to "bounce straight back" (I've forgotten their analogy but of course it didn't). Joe ended up massively out of step with that one and we haven't heard from him for a bit. How do you get out of that without looking a bit foolish?

At the other end of the scale and a couple of years later, Numis have said that they think OXB are overconfident in what they claim, that the economy won't support it, the work isn't there (or similar words) and recently revised up to 180p.

So where Joe put a HCW note out where he saw a 50% upside and then watched the covid world collapse, Numis put a 12 month target price out recently which is now 50% lower than the market price.

How do Numis get out of this one? I suspect several small upward revisions in targets over time rather than just saying "whoops" and admitting £7 looks more like it.

[chillpill] 30/4/2024 10:21

🙏 Harry

[harry s truman] 30/4/2024 10:15

Slide 29 Chillpill



So Euro 20m worth, at that price but a date of OXB's choosing.

The actual target amount is roughly 10% - as it says on the slide "IM intention to acquire €10m of OXB shares in market, targeting ~10% ownership overall (Ownership as of 15 April 2024: 6.3%)".

So presumably if the price is higher than will get them 3.7% with Euro 20m new shares then they will dip into the market?

[takeiteasy] 30/4/2024 10:02

being asked well over the offer for a smallish quote - very odd indeed

[chillpill] 30/4/2024 10:01

Apologies for being lazy but does anyone know how many shares Biomerieux have left to buy?

[chillpill] 30/4/2024 09:49

These figures were released in research by the brokers yesterday. Some like RBC and Stifel have stayed the same- not sure on PH,CF and PG.

Wait to see what Investec say…

[mirabeau] 30/4/2024 09:16

She's off again

[philh75] 30/4/2024 09:12

Do we know that these are updated chillpill? It can take a few days? I see for example on ft, no forecast changes yet.

[gareth jones] 30/4/2024 09:02

I don’t understand how after extensive research a broker works out a target price nearly three times it trades at today and gives its client investors an “outweightR21; recommendation. Why not have the confidence to say “buy”. Do they believe the rest of its peers will perform similarly well?

[takeiteasy] 30/4/2024 08:53

quick follow up - have these changed target prices wise up or down do you know

[chillpill] 30/4/2024 08:39

Just looking at the analysts recommendations after yesterdays results:
RBC Outperform 740p
Cantor Fitzgerald overweight 650p
Stifel buy 300p
Peel Hunt buy 475p
Panmure Gordon buy 478p
Liberum Under review

[takeiteasy] 30/4/2024 05:56

SARDOCOR’s founder, President and Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Roger Hajjar, is an absolute international pioneer and leader in Calcium regulation and Heart Failure. With over 500 peer-reviewed publications in numerous first-rated journals such as Nature, Nature Biotechnology, Nature Communications, Circulation, Circulation Research, etc, Dr. Hajjar started working on SERCA2a biology over three decades at the Massachusetts General Hospital at Harvard and has been developing translational technologies to benefit heart failure patients. Based on Dr. Hajjar’s ground-breaking research, SARDOCOR is using gene transfer as a method to restore SERCA2a function in heart failure patients using a recombinant adeno-associated viral vector (AAV), which consists of an AAV serotype 1 capsid and contains the human SERCA2a cDNA flanked by ITRs derived from AAV serotype 2 (AAV1/SERCA2a). Indeed, various academic and industrial groups are similarly developing SERCA2a activators for the treatment of heart failure (e.g., i1c, DWORF, small molecules).


Dr. Hajjar’s technologies have been previously licensed to Celladon, Nanocor, Bayer’s Askbio, etc. Even with the correct molecular target, the dosage of AAV needs to be within the right range for any biological effects to kick in. Sardocor’s technologies are unique by targeting a proven effector and by titrating the best dosages with the use of Novoheart’s proprietary, world’s first human mini-heart technology (www.novoheart.com) in accordance with the US FDA’s Modernization Act 2.0. for human relevance and accuracy without depending on animals. Taken together with Sardocor’s proprietary heart-specific intracoronary delivery method, the combined scientific approach aims to reduce side effects (such as immune responses) while achieving efficacy.

Sardocor has 3 ongoing FDA-approved clinical trials and 7 additional pre-clinical gene therapy and small molecule programs in the pipeline. With the mini-Heart and mini-Life Platforms, the total number of novel pre-clinical candidates is continuing to grow as existing ones advance to the next clinical stages
hxxps://www.sardocor.com/blog-/-news

hxxps://www.einpresswire.com/article/692002837/medera-s-sardocor-granted-fda-orphan-drug-designation-for-dmd-associated-cardiomyopathy-gene-therapy (one recent example)

Harry, nice spot and some nice research work at this firm - some stuff relating to heart health is an area I had never seen being investigated to this degree :)

All quite early stage stuff, but very good use case to show our talents to this wider biotech sector I guess...(assuming your sleuthing is correct)

[harry s truman] 29/4/2024 23:58

PB,

I don't think you can understate how important OXB are to Cabaletta.

If you look at their pipeline

Then our original agreement is the next to bottom line there in the DesCAARTes trial for Mucosal pemphigus vulgaris and then in August last year it was expanded to include CABA-201.

Also worth remembering is that little passage I found in Cabaletta's 10k, which was -

"Oxford is eligible to receive regulatory and sales milestones in the low tens of millions and royalties in the low single digits on net sales of products that incorporate the Oxford technology. The Company can terminate the agreement at will upon advance written notice and subject to certain manufacturing slot cancellation fees. In May 2023, the Company amended the LSA with Oxford to expand the license to include the Company's CABA-201 program for an upfront fee of $500 and in August 2023, the Company and Oxford entered into a vector supply agreement for CABA-201, and a related second amendment to the LSA, with a total cost under the vector supply agreement of up to approximately $5,000, of which approximately $1,520 was recognized as expense in the accompanying statements of operations for the year ended December 31, 2023. In February 2024, the Company and Oxford entered into a third amendment of the LSA to update the patent schedule."

(remember - those figures of money are in units of thousands).

[harry s truman] 29/4/2024 22:03

Parting shot for results day. The slides are here

The webcast usually takes a few days to get put on the OXB website, so for anybody who didn't get a chance to see it today I have a few notes which I thought interesting:-

I've already mentioned Sardocor (whose logo you can see on slide 13) and who seem very likely to be the undisclosed cardio partner mentioned in the last OXB CDMO update.

Other things - please note this is from my memory based upon some headings I jotted down - and just the order I remember them here:-

The LentiVector transition to the USA has gone very well. They are already taking work from Oxford and are ready for new customers now and at bigger scale later in the year.

They mention Frank's "One OXB" (which I think was previously "everything everywhere" so they must have decided on a better name) where every site will do every vector, and that it's a big thing for our customers to have their investment close by and (in particular with the Americans) closer to their time(zone).

They wanted to stress that the 5 late stage / commercial programmes (3 in phase 3 trials and 2 commercial (Novartis production + 1 preparing for commercial) does not include anything which might be approved from phase 2 BLA.

So the late stage genuinely means going from phase 3 the traditional route, whilst the phase 2 BLA route would be grouped with the other 46 programmes. In less words the number in late stage is/could be better than it looks.

They mention about Homology and explain that the deal was done on 4 pillars - the location & equipment / the people with the knowhow / the vector IP / the Homology work. They said that they wanted the first 3 but the 4th was the deal and that it was always going to be binary. We lost that and there is the impairment charge.

As it worked out, by 2023 41% of our work was AAV (from nothing in Jan 2022) and that 41% of the work only came because of the Homology deal.

It's now growing, but is mostly earlier stage than the LentiVector work and so it will be a time gap before we have a mix which is the different vectors but same spread of trial stages.

I think it was Seb who said that 2022 to 2024 so far is a doubling of the pipeline - and of course the year is far from finished.

Stuart talked about starting the year with £100+m gross cash and said that the capex we needed to do is mostly done now and that he can control spend until we need to do the last phase of OxBox which I think he said was 28/29. In other words he has no need to raise more in the near / medium term.

One of the analysts asked him what OXB's capacity was without expansion (how much money is full capacity) and Stuart wouldn't answer but then said between 2x and 3x current would be the number, before adding that nobody ever really wants to be full because if someone puts in an enquiry and your reply is that you can fit them in 18 months down the road then they look elsewhere.

If I understand correctly then France has a year end in February and they have already closed with a small loss which IM are covering (so that costs us nothing). They explain that OXB will broadly breakeven this year, but what is being spent in France makes that a small loss for the group, even though we are not paying it.

The RBC analyst asked if the big announcement last month was included in figures which OXB have chopped at the end of March and it isn't.

The JPM analyst asked an interesting question, which was "will H2 on its own be profitmaking" and the Sir Humphrey style reply seemed to be yes.

This then morphed into a question of "could this year be profitmaking?" and Stuart replied with words something like "we are working on a couple of things which are outside of the normal scope for our traditional work and if those come in then they would be on top of / above guidance".

The only thought which popped into my mind there was that a malaria vaccine for Serum is not CGT CDMO and so would fit those words very well.

Stuart wanted to stress that he was vary confident of the current guidance. I think his words were that '24 and the majority of '25 is there now. Adding that they also have a few interesting things which are not baked into current guidance.

The guy from Stiefel wanted to know if the 2024 growth so far is really just because of what ABL added or if it's organic. Stuart said both and it's proportional.

Numis asked if post-Homology we had lost important people in Boston and the reply was no and that we had kept almost everyone we hoped to keep - adding that OXB group has a very low turnover of staff (who see what OXB is about and want to stay part of it).

Killer question for me came from Miles at Peel Hunt, who asked about the sanctions on WuXi that the US are going to vote on at some point. Basically who will do the work if US companies can't send it there. Seb (I think) answered with - "Has anyone asked to transfer work from them to us? No. Has anyone made enquires? Yes.".

Interesting one that isn't it?

Remember - this is from memory of the webcast only so bear that in mind.

[pharmaboy3] 29/4/2024 21:13

Symposium where we share discussion with Cabaletta Bio!Must be a close relationship HTTps://www.linkedin.com/events/asgctsymposium-acceleratinggene7190759486901362688

[gareth jones] 29/4/2024 18:09

I just don't think his heart was in it.

[harry s truman] 29/4/2024 18:01

For anyone interested / confused (I see gh has moderated now) that poster has done that before and is basically really annoyed with me about Oxford BioDynamics PLC - a share which I neither own / have owned or post about.

Every so often I get caught in the crosshairs because he thinks we're invested in the same company. What can you say?

re fair value for OXB, then as mentioned in the past, CDMO is much easier to put a figure on than biotech / drug discovery and a CDMO "on average and in a normal world" should be valued at a little over 5x sales. For CGT CDMO then it should be higher still as it's new / exciting / extremely lucrative and (as Seb said again today) there's only really us in that pure CGT CDMO market at the moment.

£126m sales (the lower end of the estimate) x 5.5 = 693p per share. Which would be taking the low sales estimate and the low multiple.

House broker (RBC) recently said 740p in their view, but I'd expect all of them to put out some form of note following the results.

What has held us back so far (besides the general economy) is that a lot of them have publicly doubted OXB's ability to pull off what was announced today. Numis (who went into print with that worry) were on the call today, so it will be interesting to see if their opinion changes.

End of next month is the next review / reshuffle for the FTSE rankings. Can it happen? We were beaten down on very little... I'm honestly not that optimistic, but I do agree with the overreaction point - over sold or over bought.

[steeplejack] 29/4/2024 17:49

I'll have a look at ONT.I agree that CWR is worth monitoring as is GROW ie Molten Ventures,both look oversold.

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 17:44

Yes, ONT had also had a large French life sciences buyer of 3.5% at twice its current price - didn't unfortunately stop it falling >50%. Large buyers like that make different calculations on different outcomes. Pis can't necessarily afford to follow.

[steeplejack] 29/4/2024 17:36

I always thought that the minimum fair price for OXB (in the then climate)was thrashed out by more informed brains than mine when IM agreed to purchase OXB shares at 407 odd.I put the failure of the shares to respect that negotiated price was a combination of selling by funds in response to redemptions plus a very real disaffection with what became a relatively illiquid small cap in a disinterested and unpopular UK equity market.However,what goes around ,comes around and i see no reason why, in a fair market,OXB shouldn't now move swiftly to four quid with the minimum of interference.That presentation was pretty compelling and the shares are starting from a well oversold position.

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 17:19

Yes indeed. From my own experience there are possibly two 'best' times to buy such shares, given that one can never tell when they reach the bottom.

1. At the bottom, with proviso that you sell if they fall below. I bought this first at £4, then had to sell - fortunately. Tried a further time at just over £2, before selling as it fell again. Reentered as it regained £2 level; then doubled up. This is a very inexact science, so it pays to have an exit strategy - otherwise you end up as many here with year on year decline in capital.

2. On the confirmed BO when you have momentum on your side. I would say we are now pretty much at this point, but I'd still like to see what sell off looks like.


For anyone seeking another 'bottoming' situation, I suggest you look at ONT. Once again, bottoms are all provisional and not without risk; but they tend to follow similar patterns and trajectories. ONT shares several characteristics, most notably, IP base, growing revenues, client base and most crucially, cash runway to BE. And I believe it may have seen capitulation last week.

[steeplejack] 29/4/2024 17:12

The words are spoken by Brutus to Cassius cajoling him to agree to fight at Philippi.An unlucky venue as it turned out for both.However,forgetting the context,its a valid piece of advice.Stocks nowadays (especially given algo trading) have a tendency to get heavily overbought and oversold and that affords real opportunities.I don't short,as an old git,i feel strangely uncomfortable with an exercise which was strongly disapproved of in my younger days.Yet,i'm more transfixed with the 'lossmakers' in my portfolio than the winners.There's redemption in well timed averaging down.

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 16:58

Yes, I'd be careful with that precedent, imperial genius though he may have been.
;)

Dr. Houseman: no relative to Doogie Howser, MD?

[steeplejack] 29/4/2024 16:55

There is a tide in the affairs of men.Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;Omitted, all the voyage of their lifeIs bound in shallows and in miseries.On such a full sea are we now afloat,And we must take the current when it serves,Or lose our ventures. Julius Caesar