Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 17:44

Yes, ONT had also had a large French life sciences buyer of 3.5% at twice its current price - didn't unfortunately stop it falling >50%. Large buyers like that make different calculations on different outcomes. Pis can't necessarily afford to follow.

[steeplejack] 29/4/2024 17:36

I always thought that the minimum fair price for OXB (in the then climate)was thrashed out by more informed brains than mine when IM agreed to purchase OXB shares at 407 odd.I put the failure of the shares to respect that negotiated price was a combination of selling by funds in response to redemptions plus a very real disaffection with what became a relatively illiquid small cap in a disinterested and unpopular UK equity market.However,what goes around ,comes around and i see no reason why, in a fair market,OXB shouldn't now move swiftly to four quid with the minimum of interference.That presentation was pretty compelling and the shares are starting from a well oversold position.

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 17:19

Yes indeed. From my own experience there are possibly two 'best' times to buy such shares, given that one can never tell when they reach the bottom.

1. At the bottom, with proviso that you sell if they fall below. I bought this first at £4, then had to sell - fortunately. Tried a further time at just over £2, before selling as it fell again. Reentered as it regained £2 level; then doubled up. This is a very inexact science, so it pays to have an exit strategy - otherwise you end up as many here with year on year decline in capital.

2. On the confirmed BO when you have momentum on your side. I would say we are now pretty much at this point, but I'd still like to see what sell off looks like.


For anyone seeking another 'bottoming' situation, I suggest you look at ONT. Once again, bottoms are all provisional and not without risk; but they tend to follow similar patterns and trajectories. ONT shares several characteristics, most notably, IP base, growing revenues, client base and most crucially, cash runway to BE. And I believe it may have seen capitulation last week.

[steeplejack] 29/4/2024 17:12

The words are spoken by Brutus to Cassius cajoling him to agree to fight at Philippi.An unlucky venue as it turned out for both.However,forgetting the context,its a valid piece of advice.Stocks nowadays (especially given algo trading) have a tendency to get heavily overbought and oversold and that affords real opportunities.I don't short,as an old git,i feel strangely uncomfortable with an exercise which was strongly disapproved of in my younger days.Yet,i'm more transfixed with the 'lossmakers' in my portfolio than the winners.There's redemption in well timed averaging down.

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 16:58

Yes, I'd be careful with that precedent, imperial genius though he may have been.
;)

Dr. Houseman: no relative to Doogie Howser, MD?

[steeplejack] 29/4/2024 16:55

There is a tide in the affairs of men.Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;Omitted, all the voyage of their lifeIs bound in shallows and in miseries.On such a full sea are we now afloat,And we must take the current when it serves,Or lose our ventures. Julius Caesar

[mr_mike1] 29/4/2024 16:54

Another shorter departs.

[dominiccummings] 29/4/2024 16:45

No drhouseman. YOU are the clueless one.

[dominiccummings] 29/4/2024 16:38

Impecable sluething Mr. President sir.

[harry s truman] 29/4/2024 16:26

The time has come, the Walrus said, to talk of many things:-

But for the moment I'll just do clue 1 from the webcast...

I've long been a believer that OXB actually try very hard to keep investors informed, even if it's something that strictly speaking they are stymied from saying outright for reasons of importance to someone else.

Whilst Seb was in full flow today (slide 13) I looked at the corporate logos there and thought "Sardocor? - that's a new one". So I looked on the personal information stealing site known as Google, and -

"Pioneers in the field of Cardiac Gene Therapy".

Why does this matter?

20th of March, OXB told us - "Furthermore, the Company has signed a new agreement with a US-based client specialising in cardiac gene therapy for the tech transfer, optimisation and manufacture of an adeno-associated virus-based process (AAV).".

In our ongoing game of clinical trial Cluedo, I would suggest that one is now probably solved.

If that works out then I wonder what the market is for the biggest killer in the western world?

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 15:50

Indeed. Looks I was being overly cautious. Would still like to see support though.

[kumala] 29/4/2024 15:10

Looking good.:)Happy days.

[reddirish] 29/4/2024 14:57

Yes. If I was not already well overweight on OXB - after today's leap, over 15% of my portfolio totals- I'd be buying more, even at 250.

[connello] 29/4/2024 14:43

Excellent Presentation. Did Numis ask the question on the US acquisition costs? (Fifth Question)

[takeiteasy] 29/4/2024 14:17

magnificent presentation indeeed - perfect summary!

[northstand] 29/4/2024 14:08

That Webcast is what I was waiting for,it smelt and oozed with confidence,it should give confidence to anyone doubting that all the cards are not on the table now and here begins the fresh start,if there isn't a significant rerating in the analysts forecasts after that then I don't know what will provoke it,magnificent presentation.

[steeplejack] 29/4/2024 14:05

They did pull a rabbit out of the hat of sorts,a 'sizeable' but not to be quantified US order.If you applied accepted analytical sales ratios to the company's projected revenue growth,then the price could easily quadruple from here on an eighteen month view.i don't normally indulge in such optimism!!

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 13:57

Harry S Truman29 Apr '24 - 13:51 - 7652 of 7654
0 1 0
Well, what a webcast that was. To say I'm very pleased is an understatement. Maybe even Numis will rerate on the back of that one.
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Ah! I may have spoken too soon!
I'll take a listen.

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 13:56

Well there goes 1.40, but I'm not yet convinced until we see some support. Lots of peeps expecting hem to shoot the lights out this morning, which is not I believe what we saw?

A positive story nevertheless and very glad to have a position double the usual weighting on the Bruciefolio; though no doubt wimpy in relation to others here.

And of course delighted at long last to be in profit.
:)

[steeplejack] 29/4/2024 13:55

Yes,powerful and convincing.

[harry s truman] 29/4/2024 13:51

Well, what a webcast that was. To say I'm very pleased is an understatement. Maybe even Numis will rerate on the back of that one.

[boadicea] 29/4/2024 11:43

Although from the stability pov I might prefer to see a steady appreciation over 3 or 4 months up to the £4 - 5 pound range and contnuing beyond that, I must admit that the danger of a cheap t/o will remain at least until the price is in double figures. Far too many of my more promising holdings have already gone that way too cheaply. (I had only been in DARK a matter of weeks when that went!)

[harry s truman] 29/4/2024 11:36

Oxford Biomedica’s management team, led by CEO, Dr. Frank Mathias, CFO, Stuart Paynter, CCO, Dr. Sebastien Ribault and COO, Thierry Cournez, will be hosting a briefing and Q&A session for analysts at 13:00 BST