Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 23/3/2017 12:35

Gold just broken £1000 from a low of around £910 at the start of the year.

[mrphil] 23/3/2017 10:52

Been distracted and missed the spike in the £ earlier - damn!

[aleman] 23/3/2017 10:30

Retail sales are interesting. Feb was quite good but a rebound after sharp dips in the previous two months might be expected.

Selected volumes

Specialised Food -9.9%
Alcohol and Tobacco -13.6% (Tends to exaggerate economic growth - very high beta)
Footwear +12.0%
Music and Video -17.4%
Cosmetic and Toiletry +11.4%
Books and Newspaper -12.1%
Watches and Jewellery +14.7%
Second Hand Goods +9.4% (Tends to be countercyclical)
Non-store +26.0%
Mail Order +30.8%
Automotive fuel -0.1% (better than Jan's -7.2%)

These numbers bounce around heavily. I think the conclusion I would draw is don't take much notice of one month. Dec-Feb Q on Q is -1.4% but still +3.1% on a year ago. Rolling 3m on 3m has fallen for 3 consecutive months which seems a recent change of trend. The last time this happened was early 2013 but that was before a period of strength of over 3 years. However, it coincided with strong consumer credit growth and falling defaults whilst, now, credit growth seems to have swung sharply lower on rising defaults.

[skinny] 23/3/2017 09:31

GBP Retail Sales m/m 1.4% 0.4% -0.3%

[mrphil] 23/3/2017 08:37

Overdone fall for WYG this morning, probably good that they are my smallest holding by far. Even tempted to double up!

[mrphil] 23/3/2017 07:57

Morning All.

Only 9.7°C as the high yesterday and a fairly chilly 3.7°C low, although the temperature had risen a bit by 6:30 this morning.

They guys got a reasonable amount done to the rear patio yesterday, I think there is an end in sight so I'll have to find some money soon. Also ordered a new set of covers for the boat yesterday so that's another chunk of money that won't be going into the pension pot!

FUM results this morning, share price could go either way, or stay still!

[aleman] 23/3/2017 07:46

Lots of news today. Safestyle report volume up 3% and market share moved from 9.5% to 10.2% - so the market shrank. YTD volume is flat so their sales have slowed. IG had a much slower Q3. Next are still projecting 2018 LfL of -7%.

From Secure Trust Bank:
Unsecured personal lending ('UPL') balances, net of provisions, continued to contract and were reduced by 12% to £65.5 million at 31 December 2016 (2015: £74.3 million). During 2015 and 2016 we consistently highlighted our unease at the competitive dynamics in this market. This is by far the easiest lending market to enter as all that is required is money to on lend and a way to originate loans. As the economy has continued to grow we have seen an increase in the activity of bank and non-bank lenders in this space with inevitable consequences for credit underwriting standards and pricing. The situation that now exists is that despite what many see as a peak in job creation, which could foreshadow an increase in unemployment and a steady increase in inflation which will reduce household disposable income, some lenders are offering fixed rate UPLs at the lowest ever rates. We share the regulators' concerns about the trends in the UPL market which we regard as unsustainable, hence our decision to cease originating new UPL business for the time being. STB has a large amount of experience in the UPL market, having been active since STB's formation in 1952, but at times has elected to reduce our exposure, for instance substantially reducing our UPL activity in 2006-08, in response to an unattractive competitor pricing environment at the time. We intend to re-enter the UPL market once the risk adjusted yields available become more attractive.

Secure Trust Bank pulled out of unsecured lending just ahead of the last recession.

[blueliner] 22/3/2017 19:24

-0.64% for the Folio [FTSE250 -0.82%]

Worst value faller : BRSN -3.8%.
Highest value riser : HICL +1.9%.

Losing count of the number of brokers downgrades BRSN is attracting.
HICL open offer basic entitlement allocations will be met, but not the excess applications which were way oversubscribed & to be scaled back. My broker in this case unable to extend this excess offer to me.

Sad day at Westminster, ditto wllm.

[wllmherk] 22/3/2017 19:13

My worst day on the markets for a while with DLG and ESUR doing most damage. No winners. The days events in London put things in perspective though.

wllm

[deanforester] 22/3/2017 17:27

I'm down -0.755% on the day today (FTSE100 -0.727%).

Worst falls: KGF -5.09%, IMI -2.46% and MARS -2.01%.

Best rises: BT.A +1.07%, AZN +0.54% and SGRO +0.28%.

Kingfisher's results looked decent, but that didn't stop a large fall. Comment seems to suggest that the US falls were behind the sell-off.

Nasty job in Westminster. Aleman, you can't keep vehicles away without closing off a large area. It's not difficult for a car to come over the brisge, turn left and then you are at the entrance to the underground car park at the House.

We have just booked ourselves with a river cruise in late September. Basle to Cologne, with train each way, plus some coach transfers. We've not done one before, so it should be interesting.

DF

[aleman] 22/3/2017 17:16

Very confusing accounts from London so far but all sound tragic and worrying.

-0.3% for me.

Sears down 15%+ as it threatens to be the first big name to go bust in this slowdown/recession.




No real high as such as the temperature has fluctuated in the 5-7C range. I think the rain and sleet has finally stopped on a wintery cold and wet afternoon. There is probably more snow on the hills and some rivers are full and might top their banks.

[mrphil] 22/3/2017 16:46

Bad day for the investments but nothing compared to the poor victims at Westminster, at least one poor lady dead.

[aleman] 22/3/2017 16:27

It's amazing a private vehicle can get so close to Parliament - aren't they worried about car or truck bombs? It sounds bad even without that.

[mrphil] 22/3/2017 15:54

Not good about the attacks at Westminster.

[mrphil] 22/3/2017 14:36

No problem Aleman, I'm getting used to being hammered from every angle lately!

Horrible drizzly morning here too but that has given way to some beautiful sunshine, so at least that's some brightness on a very red day!

An old friend for many here

[skinny] 22/3/2017 14:33

Oil inventories effect!

USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.0M 1.9M -0.2M

[aleman] 22/3/2017 14:28

Nike numbers were okay but weak guidance has seen the shares fall 6%. Miner are bing hit pretty hard as iron ore price fall. Apparently, China has record stockpiles at its ports.

[skinny] 22/3/2017 14:22

Its been raining here for most of the day @8°C.

[aleman] 22/3/2017 14:15

Sorry if i rubbed salt in your wounds, MrP. I sympathise - honestly! Government should get of micromanaging and back to governing.


Horrible afternoon here - persistent sleety rain and just over 6C.

[mrphil] 22/3/2017 12:34

Worst day for the SIPP for some time today, only DX. & TEF with any shade of blue.

[mrphil] 22/3/2017 11:32

Unintended consequences my ar*e - as I said before (and it's not rocket science) there is only one pot of money for wages so if you are forced to pay higher wages then you can obviously afford less people! Not difficult to work that one out I would have thought? Would be great if you could just increase productivety to pay for it but, and I hate to say it, the average British worker just seems to want an easy life these days. When I walk through our shop floor, I can guarantee there will be someone wandering around with a cup of coffee in hand chatting, and I can also guarantee it won't be one of the Polish workers!

[aleman] 22/3/2017 10:41

MrP - News of escalation in Syria won't be helping, either. RT reports Israeli airstrikes in Syria. As if there aren't enough bombing there already.