Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[blueliner] 06/4/2017 20:23

-0.13%. At a variance with....[FTSE250 +0.30%]

Worst value fallers : BRSN -2.8%, GSK -1.8%, AV. -2.8%[xd], PHNX -1.8%, MCL -1.7%, LLOY -2.9%[xd].

Highest value risers : CSN +4.3%, BGO +3.4%, IHC +2.6%, HAT +2.4%.

Puzzled by CSN's rise but not complaining, no BB posts either, whereas sector heavyweight PHNX fell.

In the sunny region today, but a chill in NW wind.

[freddie ferret] 06/4/2017 17:44

Vehicle registrations for March do not suggest downturn IMHO.

Of more concern is that in recent weeks a number, getting larger, of the stocks I own seem to be producing news which severely bashes the share price

LPA produced a good set of results, share price on an intraday basis hit 205p, now around 150p, should be 180p IMHO.

SRP big plunge a while back, ditto DX. IMG we all know about, PLUS at the end of last year, UTW in recent days.

[aleman] 06/4/2017 17:14

Down a negligible amount, today.

Another lovely day after a cool 3.0C overnight. Very sunny and 15.9C says it was warmer but a strengthening breeze made it feel cooler much of the time.

I've started picking dandelions out of the lawn. The pears are mostly in blossom. Still waiting on the apples and the cherry has a few blossom heads opening.

[mrphil] 06/4/2017 17:07

SIPP -0.30% LLOY, GSK & AV. and the pot -0.42% LLOY, AMS & SGC

Topped up with enough euros to see them through whilst I am away next week, managed 1.1702

Prime Suspect 1973 this evening, Jane isn't going to be pleased!

[mrphil] 06/4/2017 16:12

SIPP recovered from the worst but still looking pretty grim, but then I couldn't resist adding a few more LLOY so it looks worse than it actually is.

Beautiful out in the garden at lunchtime, so much bloom and colour, it is a great shame we're going away as I reckon much of it will be over by the time we get back. Still, it will be something to look forward to after the snow we're likely to be experiencing around Kirkenes!

[aleman] 06/4/2017 14:13

March same store sales -21%



March comparables -10%



March comparables -10.1%

[aleman] 06/4/2017 12:53

You might recall that Q4 GDP is estimated at +0.7% and Q1 is projected to slow to +0.4%. Preliminary GDP figures are well known to understimate downturns. Here is a look back at 2008/9 first and last estimates.

Quarter ...... 2/08 3/08 4/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09

Preliminary .. +0.2 -0.5 -1.5 -1.9 -0.8 -0.4 +0.1

Latest ....... -0.7 -1.7 -2.3 -1.6 -0.2 +0.1 +0.4



It is quite possible the UK is already in recession (and US is ahead of it). It would explain how companies like DX. and SIV have plummetted, how BT, UKMail, WPP, Greggs, Restaurant Group, Topps and petrol sales have seen slowing trends, and how several retailers have gone bust.

Now, just imagine if Q1 preliminary was reported as +0.4% +/- 1.5%. Why don't they report the estimated error?

[mrphil] 06/4/2017 12:08

All remarkably quiet over on DX. Thought we would have heard a bit more by now.

[professor x] 06/4/2017 10:30

Thanks Aleman.
MRPHIL, you're welcome.

[mrphil] 06/4/2017 10:23

Not sure why my post got duplicated?

[mrphil] 06/4/2017 10:23

EPWN now on my watchlist (thanks Prof.) and very tempted with that healthy divi!

Still enjoying lovely weeather, although the high was only 13.7°C yesterday, falling to a chilly 5.3°C last night. Weather for Southampton on Sunday wall to wall sunshine, weather for Kirkenes (where we will be) on Sunday -3°C with black cloud and snow! Why do I bother going on holiday?!

SIPP looking dreadful today, not helped by LLOY & AV.

[mrphil] 06/4/2017 10:06

Morning All.

LLOY drop on old news, finger poised over the buy button but I do already have a decent amount.

[aleman] 06/4/2017 09:20

Hi, Prof. I've already skimmed them as they are on my watch list. I was actually just about to mention them to others on this thread. Cashflow looks good and growing and the commentary suggests long term promise. Concerns are acquisitions and lack of improvement in the balance sheet, after intangibles, although that might be down to acquisition costs, perhaps. Also, the dividend increase seems small compared to earnings growth, suggesting some caution on the board's part about the near future. It merits more research. I would normally be looking at possibly making a purchase but I'm reluctant to buy anything at the moment unless it is defensive or countercyclical. I can see EPWN going up some and then falling back again if recession hits. I think I might be able to buy lower, although anyone reading my posts can see I have very pessimistic short to medium term oulook. I could be too gloomy. I think EPWN are certainly worth monitoring.

(Not linked directly to EPWN) One thing that investors should beware as a downturn starts is directors goosing the results as things start to slow. There are accounting tricks available to carry some profit from good years mid cycle. This can then be declared as things turn down which can let directors sell out shares/options at a better price as the market sours. Directors know the good times are over but investors only find out a year later due to accounting practices. I'm not saying it is commonplace but I've been told it happens and saw elements of it when I worked for a small listed company many years ago. It might explain how some companies can still produce surprisingly good results when there are signs that the economy is slowing. It's just another thing for investors to be wary about. I've been surprised how many US companies have produced good results despite lower turnover, claiming that they've kept cost control tight. I'm wondering how many will be able to keep that up.

I've also noticed there seems to be a lot of directors resigning in recent months but I can't verify it. I don't know if anyone else here has noticed this. Maybe this lets them sell up shares at good prices without attracting too much attention as to what might motivating them. A resigning director would normally sell up without much of an inquisition. In any other circustances, selling an entire holding would attract attention.

[professor x] 06/4/2017 08:40

Hi Aleman, I hope you don't mind me asking, but if you get a spare couple of minutes could you have a quick skim over EPWN's results. I'd be interested to hear your take. Growth seems to be decent but they have indicated a sharp rise in the cost of materials.

[blueliner] 06/4/2017 08:32

Morning,

Received official reply to probate fees petition at the same time as seeing this headline piece from the Times, subscription only. I just get am email summary each day.

[shadowside] 06/4/2017 07:36

Auto loan article is brilliant and bang on the money. Actually puts number on increased durability of 3 years over the last 20 years which sounds about right.So auto manufactures have dramatically increased profits by increasing prices to an unaffordable level and then selling with cheap financial leases based on high residual values. What could possibly go wrong with a model like that.

Decision day today as can get rid of some stuff that I have been sitting on as maxed out on CGT.

Mr P. Norway trip sounds exciting. Toyed with Hertiguren when planning trip last year but decided car better for area I was visiting. If you go to the far North then Hertiguren is the answer. You may even see the Northern Lights. Fascinated to hear how it goes. We have a trip to Oslo planned for July mainly to see Viking Ship museum but there is lots else there including Admunsens polar ship and the origonal Kontiki raft.Maybe the far North next year.

[aleman] 05/4/2017 19:29

Ignore the text and just look at the second graph of commercial and industrial lending.



Some useful detail on the US auto loan fiasco:

[deanforester] 05/4/2017 17:34

I'm up +0.039% on the day today (FTSE100 +0.135%).

Best rises: BLND +2.13%, BLT +1.75% and SSE +0.95%.

Worst falls: AZN -1.97%, MKS -1.09% and CLLN -0.96%.

Miners and oils rose. I thought that overall I was doing better, but a lot of small rises. Five of mine go XD tomorrow: AV., IMI, LLOY, PSON and SMDS. The result will probably a fall.

Pub lunch today at the Half Moon, Warninglid today. We were six, with one infrequent participant, who suffers from Parkinson's. His wife brought him along and collected him afterwards.

DF

[mrphil] 05/4/2017 17:27

Better day, albeit the SIPP ended with half the gain it had mid afternoon +0.27% with SSE, BP. & WTB the top risers. The pot jumped by +0.93% with FDI benefiting from digging up a 110 carat yellow diamond! Also rising were AIEA & RR.

Think we'll go for a stroll round our local roads picking up litter tonight. Really should send a bill to the council!

[aleman] 05/4/2017 17:18

A small but growing group of hedge funds are positioning themselves to profit from the collapse of the real estate market. Sounds like 2007, right? It’s actually happening right now.

But this time, hedge funds (along with Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley) aren’t targeting subprime mortgages—they’re going after commercial real estate.

[blueliner] 05/4/2017 17:11

+0.11% for the Folio [FTSE250 +0.26%].

Highest value risers : BGO +2.8%, BLT +1.8%, HSBA +1%, MANX +1%.

Worst value fallers : GVC -1.4%, CLIG -1.2%, HICL -1%, BA. -1%, MCS -1.4%.

MCS interims today, after early nosedive share price recovered on full year prospects.
The gross average selling price of their units rose 1% to £260,000 the net selling price was flat.
FWIW interim dividend to increase by 80%.
New tax year starts tomorrow.

Unexpectedly sunny , temp max 17C, keen NW wind 22mph.

[aleman] 05/4/2017 16:53

+0.3%

Sunny until about 2pm, although high of 15.6C came after it had clouded over.



3000 jobs under threat at Tesco