Next Share Discussion Threads

[minerve] 03/5/2016 09:43

Don't forget it is not just clothing and fashion. Next Home shouldn't be forgotten and increases in property numbers should help this side of Next's business over the next five years or so.

Watching and waiting to get back in.

[aishah] 03/5/2016 09:33

HSBC retains HOLD. Cuts target to 5500p from 6260p.

[discodave4] 03/5/2016 00:09

Yep well and truly closed!All the best with your investment here. Not in yet, getting a bit concerned about bricks & mortar fashion at the moment.......doubt April has been good given the poor weather.Q1 here Wednesday so will wait and see what happens.DD

[toffeeman] 02/5/2016 11:54

Hi DD - well that gap's well closed!

It's a good test of gaps!

Just hope we don't close 38!

Anyhow I have made my (v small) purchase so will live with the consequences!

A bit like Moshri:)

[discodave4] 02/5/2016 10:50

ToffeemanThink there was a gap 29th-30th Oct 2013, closed £52.05 opened £53.85 (forget the £49.50!).hTTps://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=NXT.L&a=6&b=1&c=1988&d=4&e=2&f=2016&g=d&z=66&y=594DD

[discodave4] 29/4/2016 10:00

Thanks Toffeeman, only had a quick look on a two year chart, looked like a gap though.Good luck.DD

[toffeeman] 28/4/2016 22:33

I couldn't spot 49.50 (where do you see it?) - the next one I could see is at the end of 2012 38.00! So I hope that's too far back to fill but it could well so do I guess.

I bought a few at the 52 gap and will just let them run and take the divs for now. SW will want to sort it- he really doesn't like failure and he will see a 37.5% share price fall as just that.

He will want to get it back above 80 - he's not 50 (years old) yet and this is the first real setback since he assumed command.

[discodave4] 28/4/2016 20:14

Goldman Sachs downgrade : from neutral to sell, TP £50 from £64.hTTps://www.youinvest.co.uk/articles/stockmarketwire/80863/next-falls-out-fashion-goldmanToffeeman - was hoping you would confirm if there was a gap at about £49.50!.DD

[ricky46] 28/4/2016 12:24

People will always shop for clothes and that is fact!!!!

Loads of growth yet in the NEXT wheels!

This is sale price time for shares at NEXT. May get cheaper but will go higher at some point.
I don't think mister we make £800 million pound a year profit is going anywhere just yet.

[minerve] 28/4/2016 11:37

careful makes a very valid point about quality. Everything seems to be a race to the bottom. Globalisation isn't all it is made out to be. Cheap Asian exports put quality manufacturers out of business. The general public are too stupid to value what should be valued leading to a race to the bottom. Most of them know the cost of everything and the value of nothing. I don't agree that change is always a good thing. What you have to ask yourself is whether those that go out of business are the error or is it the public? I would say it is the public. Fashion and marketing win over the gullible masses and there are millions of ignorant fools out there.

[steptoes yard] 28/4/2016 10:07

Good post careful.

The margins are in innovative companies

Change is a good thing , not to be feared. Dinosaurs eventually became extinct

[careful] 28/4/2016 09:58

Someone like Ashley of Sports Direct will take over the BHS sites for peanuts.
He will fill the high street with lots of cheap clothes made in the third world.
Primark, Aldi..such cheap tat.

is there any place for middle class quality anymore?
Went to MKS...their clothes are not the same quality anymore.
Next,MKS have such overheads and in some cases pension deficits to fund.

Apple will eventually have to halve the cost of its i phone.
The Chinese are driving Ford and general motors out of the UPV market with their own half price alternative.

Where will it end, the days of high margins are dead.

[aishah] 28/4/2016 09:34

No need to rush in before the next update imo. Chart looking weak. Can't see a catalyst to push the share price along at the mo. dyor

[toffeeman] 28/4/2016 09:24

Disco - will the one you spotted now fill....

[sogoesit] 27/4/2016 17:32

Difficult to call this in current market on a technical basis.
Major support is down around the 2500/3000 level which seems pretty staggering.
Intermediate supports are step-like on the way down (as it was on the way up).

But when a fashion house gets it wrong, or goes out of favour, the downside can be dire. Or any retailer for that matter...
Have disposed of about 30% at around 5500.
Question is: is this an opportunity to dispose or protect short for the rest of the holding?

[discodave4] 26/4/2016 21:19

Thanks Minerve for your feedback.Isn't a reducing div yield also a sign though of increasing share price?.In the past not really been too bothered about dividend yields, my focus has been on GARP and value with downside risk mitigated by potential significant capital growth. However, am seeing the value of compounding yields and the 7+7 rule/theory (read about it somewhere), namely research shares with a PE of 7 (ish) and a div yield of 7% (ish). Hence started to look at NXT.Good LuckDD

[minerve] 26/4/2016 20:37

DiscoDave4

No problem. We all have something to learn here.

I think I made a mistake in my belief the forward yield is circa 3%.😳

I would assume it is more likely to be circa 4%.👍

I tend to use the next two financial year forecast dividends made by analysts - I get these figures from the FT. Of course, they are not definite and the projections lag as they take time to show changes in recent business circumstances whilst the analysts update their qualitative and quantitative data. I tend to base quite a bit of importance on the difference in forward yields projected as increases in yield will reduce inflation risk and also give strength to potential share capital growth; in this regard it doesn't look good for Next as analysts are projecting a decreasing yield.

Next has the following:

2017: 219.86p (4.29%)
2018: 214.17p (4.18%)

At the moment I don't have Next shares. Just watching as it is an excellent company and generates lots of cash. It is ironic in a sense that I am more likely to be interested in the share when it is priced higher than £69.62 - when special dividends increase the yield well above 4% - as the increase in yield fits the criteria for what I want out of this share in my portfolio. As soon as the yield lowers to 4% or 3% other shares can match this yield with less price risk IMO. At 6% yield or above the price risk is worth it - again IMO.

[discodave4] 26/4/2016 18:48

MinerveThanks, just trying to learn - how do you know the yield will be 3%?, they havnt stated what this years dividend will be have they?.Agree not likely to have any special divis though.Thanks in advance.DD

[aishah] 26/4/2016 12:40

Austin Reed call in administrators.
hxxp://www.cityam.com/239704/austin-reed-poised-to-appoint-administrator

[careful] 26/4/2016 11:38

the golden era when Next makes a profit of 20% of turnover is ending.
MKS makes under 6% but that includes low margin food.

Great whilst it lasted.
Tesco fell from almost £5 to about £1.40 when its margins were eroded.
How far can this fall.
BHS should scare all.

[minerve] 26/4/2016 11:25

DiscoDave4

Special dividends will not be paid at the moment due to share price. Share buy-backs are order of the day. Yield is circa 3% as stated by jakedog2.

[discodave4] 25/4/2016 21:58

From finals:We are proposing a final ordinary dividend of 105p, making 158p in total for the year, up +5.3%. During the year we also paid a further 230p of special dividends.Make that a yield of 7.5%. DD

[kendonagasaki] 25/4/2016 20:45

The current situation for the retail market remains bleak.IMO NXTare struggling to grow its online sales due to cannibalisation a very large red flag in an area they have led over the last decade.It's seems that the nonsensical whim of buying your own shares at over inflated prices in a current market that is only in a downward spiral seems to have come unstuck also.The opening of new space and revamping of current space is a huge mistake also IMO and as the decline of consumer spending weakens in the coming recession it could decimate any quick resolution towards a Plan B??Somebody somewhere is not reading the pulse of this business or the devastating current downward momentum that this global downturn is going to reap on all retail sectors.Next are out of tricks IMO and they have spent the last decade cutting lean in their stores......they will find that they have not quite found the leanest cut yet in this fat joint just yet.£47.75 is the key support indicator if the £49 arena is breached.This needs to hold or we will see further downward pressure.

[kendonagasaki] 25/4/2016 20:29

Support destroyed!£49 is on the horizon.

[essentialinvestor] 25/4/2016 17:32

Thanks Jake, should have double checked before that post.