Next Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 03/1/2016 14:22

Pay 53p tomorrow.
Q4 trading statement on Tuesday.
Hopefully we get an idea of how Christmas and Sales went.

[kendonagasaki] 14/12/2015 20:24

Still dropping.Which is nice!

[lordbung] 10/12/2015 17:28

Ex divi day.

[kendonagasaki] 10/12/2015 11:09

Nice little drop today

[sogoesit] 10/12/2015 08:55

Dont get shirty with me "sonny"!
"The TV" is a big place!

[kendonagasaki] 09/12/2015 17:21

Why don't you watch the repeat sonny and call those under paid , under privileged and under whelmed with being Next's wage slaves who have had been taken advantage of.Not my words theirs and millions of viewers.Pretty bad publicity IMO.And robbing youngsters to boot by treating them like dirt.Their words not mine sonny!

[sogoesit] 09/12/2015 16:43

In which court are they "on trial"?

[kendonagasaki] 09/12/2015 13:08

Did anyone see Next on the TV the other night??On trial for not paying the minimum working wage and using slave labour.Not good if Simon Wolfsdon want to run as the next Tory prime minister...Next, built on slavery?.......

[sogoesit] 02/12/2015 13:26

Well, I have NXT, TED and WKP but view the retail business as a "fashion".
Fashions go in and out of favour but NXT seems to be able to hold the line. I think the biggest risk to them is, like M&S, diversifying too much or "going out of fashion". I don't see that happening soon but if it does my thinking is TED will remain "in fashion" and cushion the downside.
NXT, for me, is difficult to sell as my yield-on-investment is above my threshold of 6%.
Of course, if both TED and NXT go out of fashion together I will be up the proverbial!

[mike24] 27/11/2015 07:37

black Friday and offers covering whole weekend
will distort December sales fig's to the downside
next home has done well, but you wonder if this is
on the back of the "good feel factor of rising house prices"
which will slow due to being unaffordable,

HoF can offer up to 50% off plus poss extra 10% last day of brand event
plus ADDITIONAL basic 20% staff discount, management discount additional 33%
are you really getting a bargain?
the real winners, commercial landlords, see WKP ten yr chart

[richie93] 25/11/2015 14:10

if you have gone short on next shares at 10 etc you are clearly
not a good prophet on the next share price.
growth is clearly slowing but this is still a great share to hold.
Quite apart from the share price it has paid 4 special dividends
this year amounting to £2.30.
Baltic dry index (?) good grief

[hectorp] 22/11/2015 17:15

This company has amazed me for years, as a historical shorter at 1000p, 1600p 2400 p I got that wrong. Instead I should have " invested".
But this Winter Season could be poorer than expectations, and the Baltic Dry Index shows a huge drift downwars ( suggesting poor international trade).
Perhaps that wont affect NXT. But on a high P/E and likely to go ex growth soon, any fall could be huge.

[sogoesit] 27/10/2015 17:58

Thanks for feed-back randomambler.

[randomambler] 27/10/2015 11:59

Thanks Sogoesit. I think that Directory sales have been such a huge driver of growth over the last decade that if they flatten out then, yes, Next will be ex-growth. This would still leave it as a very profitable, disciplined retailer but I doubt that the current multiple would be retained. That said Next appear to be doing well internationally and with their large home stores and so it doesn't look like they're going to run out of steam yet.

[sogoesit] 27/10/2015 11:07

Thanks for your insight randomambler.
Would it be reasonable to say that in your view, once Directory sales stop growing, this will no longer be a "growth" company as it is now? It seems to me that a lot of its, target growth of 8%, is built on this. What happens if this falters?
NXT is an overweight core holding for me.

[randomambler] 27/10/2015 09:51

Yeah I'm looking forward to the update as I think that the comparatives with last year (when they down-graded profit expectations) will be positive.

As it happens I put out some fresh analysis on Next last night to see if the numbers looked good enough to make me want to top-up:

[sogoesit] 27/10/2015 09:10

Q3 Trading Statement tomorrow.
Let's hope that helps clear the £80 level.

Brokers' views in October are mixed:
Deutsche - 20 Oct - Hold - Target:7200p
RBC - 19 Oct - Sector Perform - Target:8200p
Credit Suisse - 13 Oct - Underperform - Target:7200p

[sogoesit] 10/9/2015 10:39

Oh yes, an economist!
The FT is quoted as saying "The record of economists to predict recessions is unblemished!" Utter failure, in fact. Who knows, maybe they'll get the next one correct. Lol

[kendonagasaki] 10/9/2015 09:27

Mike of course I've read it.But if your really clever, you would be familiar with the works of Martin Armsrong..... And would not be in the markets at all come October??Keep at it slugger!A huge correction is on its way!

[mike24] 10/9/2015 09:07

Kendonagasaki, have read "econmatters "
doom & gloom scenario oct 15
why? explain in English

do wonder if retail isn't expanding to fast at top of cycle
35ml spent on john lewis new store, New St. station,
putting pressure on competition, to upgrade and match, think it will be
tough on non food next yr
joe public needs a dose of reality, with rate rises coming
forget the new car, think economy drive
nai

[sogoesit] 10/9/2015 09:01

Indeed, a 5.50% yield; who knows, without growth, it could become an income stock :-)!

[scapital] 10/9/2015 07:21

I wouldn't say you're completely wrong Kendo, they are going to struggle to grow in future years. Just not sure it's a short quite yet - there is still growth and it is still paying out a good dividend.

[kendonagasaki] 10/9/2015 07:17

Total retail sales seem to be slowing....... And no further indicative forward statement given today.Trying to blame it on the old cost game of we have to pay staff a minimum wage and it's getting expensive to open new stores and it's going to take even longer to pay back to break even.Next seem maxed out expanding retail SQ footage and they are in the last stages of this growth as they are everywhere.Online seems to have slowed down too.....It's a sell IMO.

[sogoesit] 08/9/2015 11:19

I think it's a bit cold for shorts right now... although some folks are still wearing them!
(apparently retail has done well in the cold/rainy weather but we shall see).
Anyway, anything above £69.62 gets me another 60p quarterly; which shorts don't earn.
Good luck!