Next Share Discussion Threads

[boxerdog1] 28/11/2014 19:56

They wrote £25m off for the mild October implying that apart everything else was on guidance, Nov may prove doggy remains to be seen but! a good xmas & sale would redeem matters. My brother is positioned on the lower upper management tier and he insists NXT. is performing well.

[ganthorpe] 28/11/2014 09:46

I reckon NXT is worth a quick punt
.Today is Black Friday which has suddenly become a big sale event in the UK having been big in the USA for quite a number of years.The origin of the name is that is allegedly the day that stores turn into the "black" for the calendar year.
I run a fashion store and our little sale started last week and we were surprised that our first day of sale was a record.With the mild weather continuing into October , sales of knitwear , coats and trousers have been subdued and I reckoned that it would turn cold just as the sales were due to start , which would release all the pent up demand at reduced prices , so I can see today,s sales being huge with NXT as a prime beneficiary.
With NXT off about 100p this morning it could be a buying opportunity.
GAN
I hold and have added today.
DYOR

[allch2] 28/11/2014 08:49

There is a downgrade about today nomura neutral from buy

[macarre] 28/11/2014 08:20

Boxerdog1 - it's a long and winding road...

[tr65] 27/11/2014 21:22

Two days of cool-ish weather after a couple of warm months won't really help much. NXT is a great company but it could have a major stutter if there's another disappointing update. IMO, DYOR, etc

[boxerdog1] 27/11/2014 12:42

For NXT. to be classed in that company is very flattering but unlikely. NXT. over the last 20 years has transformed itself from a company catering for the higher low end market to the whole of the lower end, its product range is vast catering for men, woman and children of all ages and sizes.

Going forward retails sales have stalled somewhat but there is still ample room in the UK. for new store openings as is happening. Directory is booming still and the constant introduction of delivery options and times is a winner. Marketshare is to be won in the openings of the superstores as in home and hardware.

The income stream from overseas although modest in the big scheme of things is set to grow with Russia opening its own hub for distribution, along with China the opportunity to grow profits is vast as western clothing is in big demand even in asia.

I don't consider next have yet filled its potential and the best is still to come IMVHO.

[randomambler] 27/11/2014 11:17

Thanks Sogoesit. You're absolutely right that there's a whole fashion angle to Next that adds volatility but I'm really not the right person to judge such things! I can't remember the last time that I shopped for clothes and I definitely have no feel for what's hot and what's not.

The only comment that I feel able to make is that Next has been relentlessly successful since the turn of the century (I haven't gone back any further) and so they must be doing something right to ride out the fashion world's ups and downs. Also the retail side of things hasn't grown for a number of years now and it's the directory that's providing all of the growth - which might be more stable as you suggest.

Personally I'm hoping for continuing warm weather and perhaps a profit warning in the new year - this would provide a great opportunity to buy into a proven management team who have shareholder interests at heart.

[sogoesit] 27/11/2014 09:32

RandomAmbler, your analytical overview is interesting but, although you say "it offers an aspirational yet affordable brand with a premium image", you focus much more on financial and management performance than the intangible issues that can kill a stock like this (consumer / fashion retail), imv.
We know that Next has a good (great?) management team compared to its peers. We know it is transparent, keeps shareholder interests' and returns in mind and manages expectations very well. But, as demonstrated by the weather, is it a robust enough "brand" to adapt and ride-out the uncontrollable and intangibles like consumer tastes, fashion and maintenance of its "brand" loyalty and making products that its customers like and that keeps it "in business"? This is the bet we are really making.

But, if we compare TED to Next over the latest warmer weather period it appears that TED is more robust, i.e. was less affected by the weather, than Next, and its share price significantly outperformed Next's. The question to answer is WHY? (I don't know the answer to that question but it appears to me to be highly relevant).

The risks with stocks like these, e.g. Michael Kors, Mulberry, Burberry, Jimmy Choo and others, is that it loses touch with its core fashion conscious consumers in its chosen market and that issue is pretty nigh on impossible to predict.
Next is also diversifying into homeware products which should provide it with more "stability".
All imv.
(Long term holder of NXT and recent investor in TED)

[randomambler] 26/11/2014 13:46

Is Next heading for a fall? Will there be another profit warning? I guess it all depends on the weather over Christmas.

However looking at the numbers (over the last decade) it's clear that Next is a massive cash-generating machine that has managed to almost half the number of shares in circulation this century. Amazing.

What concerns me though is that retail sales have been flat for a number of years now while the Next Directory is becoming the dominant source of profit. At the same time the debtor day number has been increasing year-on-year for a long time and I wonder if some of these debts will have to be written off?

Any I've posted much more detail on this in my blog and I'd be very interested to hear any positive or negative comments:

[boxerdog1] 26/11/2014 09:30

Well at £69 it not far to travel. What with the cold weather now with us and people itching to spend why not? as always these days the xmas sale is all important.

[macarre] 25/11/2014 20:27

Could be heading to £72 now.

[boxerdog1] 25/11/2014 12:35

Make that £68 coincides nicely with the weather snap.

[tr65] 19/11/2014 09:28

Might be cold in Bulgaria but UK Met Office saying it could be the warmest November on record.

[boxerdog1] 18/11/2014 15:05

And yet they rise beyond £67 strange that. New store opens in Sofia Bulgaria of all places last week, still if it earns a crust.

[tr65] 14/11/2014 08:19

Another couple of weeks of warm weather...

[nicksoj] 06/11/2014 09:47

Well...

It looks likely to be heading back to the £62 threshold. Still a comfortable margin from buy back levels...

A great short. £72 was never really going to last out given the UK's macro-economic state of play.

DYOR ;()

[kendonagasaki] 31/10/2014 21:49

£45 is coming!

[blueteam] 31/10/2014 08:12

oh no warmest 2 days coming up and next have got winter stock in! heard cold winter on it's way though, they may be saved!!!

[tr65] 30/10/2014 19:08

They must be selling loads of nice warm winter clothes this week.

[sogoesit] 30/10/2014 15:46

£45!! When?
Next stop 6300 then 6175... short term.
(Long term holder)

[kendonagasaki] 30/10/2014 13:08

Blue team well done on your sell this is good for £45 yet.

[kendonagasaki] 30/10/2014 13:06

NEXT is overvalued in this current climate.UK growth is all maxed out and they never made it as a global player. With Christos gone the real major impact has yet to be felt.The economy remains weak and the fashion industry is once again susceptible to any minor shocks as we peter on the brick of economic unknowns.Next are out tricks and Wolfsdon has no ponies left.KendoNagasaki remains short on NEXT!SELL!

[blueteam] 29/10/2014 13:27

oh I see warm weather to blame for reduced sales! Expect a profit warning in the next few months maybe or more reduction in profits. Sold all my holding today (not that many!) at 12ish from the last 3 years and been really good profit. Could start the end of the good run. We will see if I have done the right thing. Buying more in TMZ and INTU and holiday for family with the rest.

[tpaulbeaumont] 29/10/2014 10:13

tpaulbeaumont 4 Mar'14 - 13:38 - 4848 of 5027 0 0 edit
[...]wotta champ :) 73½ looks next, no pun intended, and 91 FTW


70p out, was 6 months prior tho