Monsoon Share Discussion Threads

[red army] 15/1/2005 09:08

Monday will tell.

[jeffian] 13/12/2004 15:12

Onwards and upwards, eh?!

[cat] 10/12/2004 18:41

looking even nicer

[cat] 23/11/2004 15:23

seriously nice 6 year breakout just begun

[jeffian] 09/10/2004 11:56

I do! And I went along to the AGM to tell Peter Simon so. (Not that it'll do me much good, but it does no harm to remind them of the uppity minority shareholders). Good as the recent share price performance has been, it was patently undervalued before (which is in no small measure due to Mr. Simon's 'difficult' relationship with the City compounded by the Stoneycroft manoeuvre and the subsequent dividend cut) and is arguably so now. Restoration of the divi would have an even more beneficial impact on the share price IMHO.

Still, as you say Kingsize, the share price performance helps ease the pain while we're waiting!

8-)

Regards, Ian

[kingsize] 09/10/2004 05:36

Can't believe this thread is so utterly dead - everyone who's left must be too busy counting their shekels, I suppose. Who needs a dividend with capital growth like this?

[jeffian] 24/5/2004 10:45

Still showing surprising strength for a share where the Chairman has threatened to axe the dividend! Anyone still in this have any idea what's been pushing it up recently?

Regards, Ian

P.S. Looking at post 47 on 2/12/03, vinyy couldn't have picked much of a worse time to go short could he?!

[jeffian] 26/4/2004 14:27

Well the chart shows a burst of buying activity, spcecks, which I assume is the answer to your question, but I have no idea what's behind it.

Regards, Ian

[spcecks] 26/4/2004 14:02

ANYONE KNOW WHY THE RISE TODAY.

[jeffian] 26/4/2004 13:55

Yikes, vinyy, did you really go short on 2/12/03? Look at that chart now. Ouch!

8-)

Regards, Ian

[jeffian] 30/12/2003 17:44

How's the short going, vinyy?!


8-)

Regards, Ian

[pepi moon] 07/12/2003 12:31

I like the value etc but not sure about managment.

[vinyy] 02/12/2003 20:14

The short term price looks weak..........get your shorts out guys...VINYY

[jeffian] 25/10/2003 11:47

Tom Singh looks close to taking New Look private at 348p per share which represents 12.5x 2003 earnings. In the Independent today, Numis Securities are quoted as saying "the company is worth at least 375p per share. We believe that there are few stocks in the retail sector with the same prospects for growth going forward". Errrrrm.....is that the same Numis Securities who helped devise and promote the Stoneycroft 'put option' at 130p net per share which represented 8.4x 2003 earnings with 2004 ytd like-for-like sales ahead 11% already? Hypocrites!

Regards, Ian

[jawbone] 21/10/2003 10:53

A bit of activity today,some large trades going through

[jeffian] 19/10/2003 15:26

That's too simplistic, Paul. Yes, it's clearly worth more than 140p (actually, the 'family' only offered 126.5p net as you had to buy an option off them for 10p and then they knocked off the dividend!), but will the share price be allowed to reflect that? Much of the 'detail' you feel to be irrelevant was actually posted in the run-up to the option exercise date when, had the Simon family succeeded in their intentions, the free float would have been reduced to 7.5% traded on AIM which wouldn't exactly have helped the share price. In the light of that, the 140p option was as much a 'ceiling' as a 'floor'. The threat to cut the dividend - clearly raised as an inducement to sell to them - remains hanging over the shares. If it's as "Simple as that" that the shares are cheap around 140p (and therefore a "buy", you mean?), would you still think so if they stopped paying a dividend?

Anyway, the fact that the owners of around 32m shares didn't take up the option despite having paid 10p per share and the others (me included) didn't even think it worth seeking the option confirms your view that the offer was simply too low. The recent rise into the 160's may reflect the idea that the family will have to raise their sights to achieve whatever plan they have in mind, but it is within the power of the controlling shareholder/managers to take such actions as suit their own agenda without regard for the minority shareholders and this will affect the share price regardless of the strengths of the underlying business.

Simple, innit?! Well no, not quite.

Regards, Ian

[paulypilot] 19/10/2003 03:03

Hi,

It amazes me that people feel the need to churn over so much detail.

The only important fact is that the controlling family think it's worth 140p, and are prepared to buy back all major stakes at that price with their own money..

That means it's worth a lot more.

Simple as that.

Cheers,

Paul Scott.

[jeffian] 17/10/2003 11:31

For info -

FRONT PAGE - COMPANIES & MARKETS: Monsoon investors query regulator over delisting plans
By Sophy Buckley and Tony Tassell
Financial Times; Oct 17, 2003


A group of Monsoon shareholders has written to the Financial Services Authority, the City regulator, asking whether the high street retailer must move its listing from the main market to Aim.

The letter, from a group claiming to control 15 per cent of the company, says: "We would very much like to have the UK Listing Authority's view on whether it is in fact necessary to delist the company when at least 24.5 per cent of its shares remain in public hands."

The investors say "the loss of the full listing would lead to a diminution in shareholder value and reduction in the requirements for good corporate governance at a time when the FSA is seeking to ensure the strengthening of these objectives."

The letter is the latest salvo in the ongoing battle between minority shareholders and the Monsoon board. Peter Simon, Monsoon founder and chairman, told investors at last week's annual meeting that if they did not like his plans - which include moving to Aim and reviewing the dividend - they should invest elsewhere.

His comments came days after the close of a controversial "put" option designed to increase his family's holding to up to 92.5 per cent. That took the family stake to 75.5 per cent.

Under listing rules, if a company's free float falls below 25 per cent and there is no reasonable prospect of returning it above that threshold, it must delist from the main market.

But the shareholders, who said they would identify themselves at the FSA's request, said the City regulator had discretionary powers and claimed that Monsoon's move was not a fait accompli.

They are angry with Mr Simon for trying to buy back the shares cheaply - the put offered a maximum of 130p a share net - threatening to cut the dividend and fill the board with his nominations.

Separately, it has emerged that Simon Cawkwell, best known as a day trader, acquired 100,000 shares a few months ago at 137p a share. Mr Cawkwell said yesterday that Mr Simon would eventually take the company private, mopping up the shares at a premium. The shares closed down 2½p yesterday at 161p.

However, Monsoon said there were no plans to go private. It added that it had had prolonged discussions with the UKLA and that the company did have to move its listing.

[ozz2] 16/10/2003 12:40

jeffian I only invest for an hoby more than anything and I am not too savvy with all the ins and outs of the markets.
This is only my simplistic thinking what I am about to offer-- I think The move to the AIM market will get more private investors atracted --the Institutional investors by and large don't bother with this market--or rather they are not allowed to--I think?? Hope I'm right and thanks for the helping hand with so much information!
ozz2

[jeffian] 16/10/2003 10:37

ozz,
It sounds as if you may not be aware of the shenanigans carried on by the Chairman and his family who now control over 75% of the shares. If not, click on "all messages" above and read some of the links to recent newspaper stories.

Yes, by rights the share should now move ahead on the basis of strong trading, growth in like-for-like sales and margins and a strong brand moving forward in both UK and continental Europe....BUT!...if the controlling majority shareholders insist on exercising their power in their own interests at the expense of minority shareholders (the move to AIM is thought to have been driven by Inheritance Tax issues within the family, and hoarding cash within the business rather than distributing dividends also looks like a private agenda) then the share price is effectively at their whim and control. At the time of the Stoneycroft 'offer-that-wasn't-an-offer-it's-a-put-option', one of the Independent Directors told me the reason they hadn't felt able to comment on the value of the 'bid'(which was based on only 8.6x current earnings!) was that the controlling shareholders could pretty well adjust the price at will, and both Independent Directors resigned and disappeared before the AGM which must say something!

Anyway, if Peter Simon has learned anything from all this, rests happy with his 75%+ and AIM quote and focuses on running the business to increase sales, margins, profits, EPS and, hopefully, dividends rather than thinking up convoluted ways to duff up his (otherwise supportive) minority shareholders then...yes, the shares should be a good investment!

Regards, Ian

[ozz2] 16/10/2003 09:42

Forgot to mention Michael Walters site is a pay site, but at the moment a temporary visit is allowed for a short period for free.
ozz2

[ozz2] 16/10/2003 09:37

Nice post jeffian, thanks for the insight into this company.
Sounds as though it might be able to go forward in atracting more private shareholders.
I bought in after a very good writeup on Michael Walters bulletin board. Can reccomend this site for the excellent quality of the research by some of the posters, not forgetting of course Mike himself.
ozz2

[jeffian] 15/10/2003 15:08

kingsize,
No you're not the only one who hasn't sold (I'm delighted to say that the vast majority of those who took 'put' options then refused to exercise them so the Simon 'concert party' ended up only acquiring a measly 2m or so shares instead of the 36m they wanted) so the 'free float' is still nearly 25% instead of being reduced to 7.5% as intended.

I haven't posted recently because nobody responded and I assumed I was talking to myself. I did go to the AGM and tried to kick up stink, but it was very poorly attended and we didn't really get any satisfactory answers on the key issues of how minority shareholders would share in the company's success if management continued to work towards reduced market liquidity and threats to cut the dividend.

Other than that the retail sector generally is benefitting from good news - better-than-expected trading statements from Debenhams, GUS, Ted Baker, Whittards of Chelsea etc. and takeover action (Debenhams,, New Look etc) - it's hard to see why MSN have been so strong this last couple of days. I'd like to think it's 'cos Peter Simon has seen the light and hinted to someone that he'll stop threatening the divi. As I pointed out to him, it's disingenuous to say that you don't understand why the share is so poorly rated when you've issued a profit warning shortly after IPO, had a bust-up with the City over undisclosed offshore shareholdings, only this year clawed back to the same level of profitability as 5 years ago, failed to increase the dividend in line with increasing profits, tried to buy back shares at a fraction of their worth just prior to announcing that profits and trading were ahead of expectations and a key executive whose departure had been announced had changed her mind and was staying, and then implicitly threatening future divis. In this light, you could say that he was the author of his own misfortunes!

Still, all is not lost. It's a great retail team and the company's going great guns. Whether it's AIM or main market is probably immaterial for those of us left and if the 25% minority is left to share in the 'Monsoon vision' and rewarded with a sensible, sustainable and progressive dividend policy the shares might even be rewarded with the rating they deserve and we all want. Then I really would feel that the Chairman and his family "remain committed to continuing the successful development of the Company for the benfit of ALL shareholders and staff, as a listed company".

Regards, Ian

[jawbone] 15/10/2003 13:38

just bought into company what a problem my broker had acquiring the shares,cant be many floating around

[jawbone] 15/10/2003 13:35

has just been tipped as an undervalued share with potential