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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monsoon | LSE:MSN | London | Ordinary Share | GB0002441763 |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 421.50 | 0.00 | 01:00:00 |
| Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - |
| Last Trade Time | Trade Type | Trade Size | Trade Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | O | 0 | 421.50 | GBX |
Monsoon (MSN) Share Charts1 Year Monsoon Chart |
|
1 Month Monsoon Chart |
Intraday Monsoon Chart |
| Date | Time | Title | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2007 | 03:53 | MSN avin a frank Butchers.... | 16 |
| 22/7/2005 | 11:53 | monsoon due 4 rerating | 204 |
| 09/10/2004 | 11:56 | Monsoon - Falls on poor New year sales | 54 |
| 13/1/2003 | 08:10 | Monsoon. Results Out Monday... BUY? | 26 |
| 04/12/2001 | 14:36 | BREAKING NEWS!! MSN auctions are back and no sign of EBAY!! | 8 |
| Trade Time | Trade Price | Trade Size | Trade Value | Trade Type |
|---|
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 28/9/2007 08:31 by paulypilot Hi,Jeffian - the main risk from shorting Monsoon was that Peter Simon would take it private,that was a known risk. However, because the shares were already significantly over-valued, there was never going to be a large bid premium, so the risk was modest. As it turns out, Simon has done the deal, but it's only cost us shorters about a 5-10% loss, nothing to worry about. Ironically, if he had just let the share price go into freefall, then it would have found fair value around 200-250p, and he could have bought it back at 300p. Let's face it, this share has been in a false market for some time - being supported at a level, with pressure no doubt being put on Simon to take it private by the hedge funds who had hoovered up the rest of the shares. Incidentally, I also had my short position pulled by IG - the stock lenders recalled all Monsoon stock last Friday. So this Bid was obviously known about. Regards, Paul. |
Posted at 28/9/2007 08:08 by scburbs jeffian,Strangely MSN became unshortable last week and I was forced by the sb company to close! However, shorting MSN was still the right thing to do as the upside was very limited and the downside massive. A takeout at 424p is hardly likely to result in much of a loss to shorters. A 4% premium to the price!! It was always clear that if a bid came in it would be at a very low premium and the trading statement that accompanies today's bid look like an effort to make sure shareholders accept the offer. |
Posted at 29/8/2007 01:45 by paulypilot Hi,Given the sad passing of Frank Butcher, maybe we could migrate to a new thread. In the meantime, Monsoon remains a great business, but significantly over-valued right now, IMO. Personally I'm long Sportsdirect & short Monsoon. Both have complete megalomaniac loonies running them, but one is cheap to reflect that fact (sportsdirect - PER of about 10), and the other is expensive (Monsoon is probably on about 25-30 times this years' earnings). I think Monsoon will warn again on profits soon, because summer has not really happened this year, and this means that both sales & gross margins will be massively down on last year. As a summer-reliant fashion retailer, this means that their results for this year will almost certainly be well below broker estimates. That does not mean that Monsoon is a bad business. On the contrary, it is a fantastic business - great product, fab margins, good management. But at 400p a share, it's priced at about twice what it's actually worth, on a sensible multiple of forward EPS. That said, assorted loonies like to keep the share price high, to qualify for the Sunday Times Rich List. Regards, Paul. |
Posted at 27/7/2007 16:11 by paulypilot Hi,Well I lobbed out another 50k shares today, and sure enough the price supporter at 380p hoovered them all up again !! Cheers, Paul. |
Posted at 27/7/2007 10:14 by scburbs Hi PP,Thanks. Any views on who/why? No disclosures so presumably through CFD/SB's, but then presumably the CFD/SB provider would have had a disclosure obligation if there was a significant buyer? The share price seems to have defied logic since I first shorted after last years rise to £4. It has stayed pretty much at that level since despite a quite terrible set of announcements. In terms of downside risk, PS walked away from a bid estimated at c.425p when the business was performing much much better so it is difficult to see significant downside risk (for those who are short). Significant downside risk for any longs. |
Posted at 26/7/2007 21:04 by paulypilot Hi,scburbs - someone is supporting the share price at 380p. I shorted another 20k shares at that level today, and it was hoovered up. Also, very illiquid share, so easy for someone to maintain price support. But in the absence of a bid from management, it can't defy logic or gravity forever. This stock is clearly overvalued significantly now. Regards, Paul. |
Posted at 26/7/2007 13:18 by scburbs LFL sales down 13% off a weak comparative! Now that can't be good for margins which are being hit by running two distribution centres.The share price continues to defy reality. Amazing to see the share price fall so little on such a bad set of results together with an atrocious current performance/outlook. |
Posted at 26/7/2007 09:53 by paulypilot Hi,irrationalexuberance asked; Any one have any strong views? Yes, I used to be a big fan of Monsoon, and remember buying the shares at around 55p years ago, and then again at 160p. However, currently I am short of this stock, because it just looks significantly overvalued. The figures announced today for y/e 26/5/2007 are "very disappointing" (in the words of the Monsoon Chairman), with PBT down 16% on last year. Moreover, current trading is dire, with LFL sales down an astonishing 13% for the first 7 weeks. This will mean a complete wipe-out for the summer season, with stock levels probably way too high by now & the necessity to go into Sale early & take a massive hit on markdown, to shift the stock. Mind you, there's no doubt that the appalling weather this summer is partly to blame. So with EPS of 17.18p for last year, and terrible current trading, I can't help thinking that the house broker will have to slash their current year forecast from 22.4p to maybe even something as low as 15p ?? Incidentally, the house broker only has a "Hold" recommendation on the stock, which as we know really means "Sell" !! With earnings falling, a PER of about 12 looks about right to me, so 12 * 15p gives a price target of 180p, or less than half the current share price. Therefore I shall probably be adding to my short position here. The main risk is that the egomaniac Chairman & majority shareholder, Peter Simon, will buy the business back. Although whether he could get the necessary funding together when trading is so poor, is questionable. Regards, Paul. |
Posted at 22/7/2005 11:53 by jeffian Blimey! Spooky or what?! I promise I hadn't seen this before posting -"Monsoon PLC 22 July 2005 Monsoon plc ('Monsoon' or the 'Company') Statement with respect to possible Offer In light of recent share price movements, the Board of Monsoon confirms that it has entered into preliminary discussions with its Chairman, Peter Simon, regarding his family interests making a possible offer for the 24.6 per cent of the issued share capital of the Company not already owned by them. These discussions are at an early stage and there can be no assurance that any offer will be forthcoming. In accordance with Takeover Panel rules, the Company is currently in the process of appointing an independent Rule 3 adviser to provide advice to shareholders on the value of any offer. A further announcement will be made in due course. 22 July 2005" |
Posted at 09/10/2004 11:56 by jeffian I do! And I went along to the AGM to tell Peter Simon so. (Not that it'll do me much good, but it does no harm to remind them of the uppity minority shareholders). Good as the recent share price performance has been, it was patently undervalued before (which is in no small measure due to Mr. Simon's 'difficult' relationship with the City compounded by the Stoneycroft manoeuvre and the subsequent dividend cut) and is arguably so now. Restoration of the divi would have an even more beneficial impact on the share price IMHO.Still, as you say Kingsize, the share price performance helps ease the pain while we're waiting! 8-) Regards, Ian |
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