Monsoon Share Discussion Threads

[this_is_me] 06/6/2002 19:56

Me still likes MSN in the long term, but fear that it could get below 80p before it stops some months from now.

[morose] 06/6/2002 16:28

Nearly all sells today and the results still some way away.

Interest rates on hold but retail coming under pressure all the time now,everyone just seems to be waiting for the bad news on an interest rate rise and the momentum has gone.


One or two retail stocks resisting the trend but am pencilling in a tight stop loss which i will stick to rigorously.

Still like MRT - anyone any thoughts on this one?
Looks a good long termer to me.

[factsonly] 06/6/2002 14:53

How far it goes down will depend on next months rates decision, if it goes up, then retail stocks will be on a long decline... until that decision is made, retail stocks will probably drift downwards. Tempted to short a few retail stocks myself.

[this_is_me] 06/6/2002 09:29

The up trend is definately broken and the price is on its way down. How far will it go?

[msjhaffey] 31/5/2002 13:43

I think there may be more growth in MSN. However, I've sold. I made 40% in three months and would be happy if I could do this every three months.

I'm getting out because
a. My non-statistically-valid sample of friends shows they are beginning to find MSN expensive and so are looking elsewhere
b. A nightmare story trying to get a ball gown there for my wife. Again, this may not be typical, but I decided to bank my profit.

Good luck to all holding on: I hope your expectations of a rise to 150p prove right, although it will cause me some chagrin if it happens :-)

[championismo] 30/5/2002 00:09

It has to go back up to cover a small gap left by opening lower today.

Champ

[championismo] 30/5/2002 00:08

This needs to trade down to 132 to cover a gap in the chart, it will probably trade dwon to that today and then recover up.

Champ

[championismo] 29/5/2002 22:02

Ok we shall leave it a that but i think there is more left in MSN - atleast a swing over 150p

Champ

p.s. Im a fundamentlist i choose my stocks by fundamemtals but technical analysis cant be ignored if you really looked at it then you would see how good it can be, especially as it is becoming more and more widely used.

[factsonly] 29/5/2002 19:11

Champ - MD is leaving, but that doesn't mean he needs to sell out yet does it!?
As for technical analysis, I'm sure it works for a number of people/companies, might even work better for smaller companies as all it takes is a few moderate investors (chatists) to influence the pricing/trading.

However, trends do change and break, otherwise everyone would be using it. Like my boss (who is a multimillionaire) said "if it's so good how come those who use it (charting) aren't all millionaires?".

I suppose what I'm trying to say is don't over rely on it, I believe MSN is starting to swagger a bit and might break from its "trend" soon, whether or not you agree is up to you. I sold my last batch for 142p each, could of gone back on for cheaper, but realised results weren't as good as I'd thought and that market conditions might be turning against MSN. Good luck.

Thisisme - see you back on the HVR board.

[championismo] 29/5/2002 17:44

Factsonly the MD is leaving the chairman is buying him out.

As for the gap in the chart it is just another form of technical analysis which i have found to be very succesful, technical analysis works because investors beleive in it invest by it and therefore it predicts what investors are going to do.

The more who invest through technical analysis the more efficient it becomes, in smaller stocks technical analysis doesnt work so well because the are less people using technical analysis to trade it.

Technical Analysis cant value a company but it can predict share price movements.

[this_is_me] 29/5/2002 16:55

Me is out - MSN is a good company, which is still undervalued. The risk on the downside in the short term looks much larger than the hope of gain. Me made 100% profit and will buy is again if the price falls and bottoms out at an attractive level.

[factsonly] 29/5/2002 16:20

Apologies, it wasn't the FD, nevertheless the MD is selling. If he believed the price would continue rising he would of kept his holdings longer, he obviously believes not. The chairman making additional buys doesn't really bring much extra faith/excitement... just an extra stranglehold over the way the company is run.

As for closing a gap in the chart, why does it have to do that? why can't it simply trade sideways/downwards over the next two months? A chart doesn't control the share price, investors do... but anyway, I think interest rate changes and the start of the Summer lull are likely to break such chartist trends, but then again, maybe MSN has the saving grace of a Summer results announcement.

If you truly believe it will continue rising this Summer, then it makes sense to hold on. If you don't, then do what you must.

[shedloads.com] 29/5/2002 12:21

From Sharecast today


Monsoon

Tue 28 May 2002


LONDON (SHARECAST) - Monsoon entered the market at 198p in 1998, the stock then lost more than half of its value, only to climb back up to the 130p mark after a strong run in the shares since the end of last year, The Independent says. Yesterday the retail group said it is likely to make at least a £31m profit this year, compared with analysts' forecasts of about £27m. The news nudged its shares 2.5p higher to 135.5p. It has managed a 12% increase in like-for-like sales this year. This is partly due to the general frenzy of consumer buying but also because it has made some key management changes, including bringing in Rose Foster, who spent 18 years at Next and then worked at New Look, to manage its UK business. One advantage Monsoon has over other UK retailers is that its Accessorize chain appears to be more easily translatable for foreign markets than straight clothing businesses, where fashions vary more. Its shares have a lot further to go even to reach its IPO price. Hold.

[shedloads.com] 29/5/2002 12:20

From Yesterdays Sharecast.

Monsoon: Broker upgrade
By Gary Middleton
Mon 27 May 2002

MSN - Monsoon

LONDON (SHARECAST) - Numis Securities has raised its rating in the soft goods retailer to add from hold on news that like-for-like sales for the year to May rose 12%. The broker has also raised its 2002 profit forecast to £31.2m from £29.2m after Monsoon said full-year profits will not be less than £31m. The shares are up 3.5p at 135.5p.

[shedloads.com] 29/5/2002 10:20

Factsonly

Your facts are a tad wrong. John spooner is the outgoing MD and has sold shares to Peter Simon the Chairman. The FD is Andrew May and he has not sold any shares.

Sheds

LONDON (AFX) - Monsoon PLC said chairman Peter Simon has bought 411,840
shares in the company at a price of 133 pence each.
Meanwhile, John Spooner, the outgoing managing director, has sold 411,840
Ordinary shares at 133 pence per share, it added.

[factsonly] 29/5/2002 09:25

Who knows MSN money side better, the chairman or the FD? The FD sends a much stronger signal when s/he trades the companies shares as to the chairman. We all know Peter Simon the chairman was already committed and had faith in the company (judging from his existing holdings). His buying appears simply to be trying to counter the down effect of his FD selling, it appears to have been partly successful as MSN has only dropped a penny so far today.

[championismo] 29/5/2002 09:07

Monsoons chairman buyings shares of his managing director is a good thing, as the fear is of the chairman selling to increase liquidity which would push Monsoons share price down. The fact that he is buying shows he is still commited and confident the price will go further.

Champ

[factsonly] 28/5/2002 21:44

It's bad news... if the FD shows no faith, then sometihng bad must be happening, or he simply needs extra cash to buy an inflated piece of property. On this news, I can see this dropping tomorrow.

[jeffian] 28/5/2002 19:13

Well, he actually bought them off his own FD, which raises a question rather than being good news. Does it show confidence or is he just protecting his (already substantial) interest by mopping up a major Director sale? I'm not sure what it means.

Regards, Ian

[factsonly] 28/5/2002 16:19

Peter Simon bought more shares yesterday.

In normal circumstances this would be good news, but since he owns so much of the company already it doesn't really matter anymore... In fact he might do better if he gradually released some shares to boost liquidity.

[shedloads.com] 28/5/2002 08:54

From Todays FT, sounds good to me....Sheds

COMPANIES & FINANCE UK: Monsoon above expectations
By Alison Smith
Financial Times; May 28, 2002


Monsoon yesterday signalled that annual profits would beat expectations, at a minimum of ý31m for the year ended May 25.

Analysts had been forecasting profits of between ý28m and ý29m.

Peter Simon, chairman of the fashion retailer that operates both the Monsoon and Accessorize brands, said underlying sales in the year had risen 12 per cent. This is an improvement even on the first half, when like-for-like sales rose 11 per cent.

Monsoon said at the time that trading had been buoyed by particular successes in daywear, with casual wear sales up 30 per cent.

Monsoon shares rose 3?p to 135?p, close to the 12-month high of 143?p achieved earlier this month. Alison Smith

[factsonly] 28/5/2002 08:32

Independent quoted MSN as a hold today.

[cat] 28/5/2002 08:23

Good news from new Look today will spark some interest in MSN.

[gdjs100] 27/5/2002 19:39

Factsonly, taking what you say into account, I still think a PER of 10 compared to the likes of New Look is a bit churlish. I'll be holding for the forseeable future certainly.