Monsoon Share Discussion Threads

[greenslug] 03/7/2003 01:38

The options are :

To pay 10p, to have the option to sell the shares at 140p in the near future. The current price is 127 and with a final div of 3.5p(?) taken into account you would be no better off than you would be if you sold now. (OK there is a spread.)

To hope that not enough people take up the put options (1% issued share capital) so that nothing changes and the market gives a fair value to the shares, which after the prelim, which we have already been told pretax will not be less than 37.5mln stg, may well be in excess of the 140p and at no cost .

This offer suggests that Mr Simon is confident that the future of the company is bright, and is trying to take 20% of the companies shares form smaller shareholders at what amounts to no premium to todays current price.

If you feel the results at the end of the month will be upto or in excess of those forecast, then sit tight don't spend any money and wait for the rewards.

If you feel the company isn't doing so well, then sell now you'll get all but the same money you would otherwise and you will be able to do something else with it for a few months.

I am not a professional, I do hold shares in the company, and if any of my reasoning is wrong, please tell me you may save me some cash.

Greenslug

[jeffian] 02/7/2003 23:51

It's more than 'on the way', Cat, it's effectively happened. Surprised that there hasn't been any other comment but maybe because it's not that clear what the implications are and it needs thinking about. The effect of the proposal is that Peter Simon's family interest will end up owning 90something% of Monsoon and you can either accept his 'put' offer at 140p per share or hang on and be a minority shareholder in a family firm with a quote on AIM. I suspect that the latter would be unattractive (limited free float, no real market in shares, lack of interest from investors therefore no price driver, 'family' control), but I need to think about that. I suppose the key question is whether 140p is the right price or whether this is an opportunistic MBO just as the market is picking up.

Regards, Ian

[cat] 02/7/2003 22:42

Bid on the way?

[msjhaffey] 23/5/2003 11:25

Although I wish I'd sold at 120 rather than 110, the bounciness of this share amazes me at the moment. Yo-yo market prevails.

[jeffian] 13/5/2003 11:50

All the retailers have had a 'Baghdad Bounce' recently; April like-for-like retail sales across the sector up 4%+ after declines in March plus lots of talk of 'consolidation' (i.e. takeovers) and companies being taken private. Others have performed similarly (cf. New Look etc.)

IMHO

Regards, Ian

[msjhaffey] 13/5/2003 11:28

Anyone suggest why the sudden rise in the last few days?

[miked500] 11/2/2003 07:44

from today's guardian Another retailer, Monsoon, made further progress, rising 4p to 103.5p, after Richard Ratner, analyst at Seymour Pierce issued a "strong buy" recommendation.

"On fundamentals Monsoon is cheap, but we are also hearing rumours from the 'North London mafia' that chairman, Peter Simon, is looking at taking the company private," said Mr Ratner, who believes a that takeout price of 135p-140p is possible.

[jeffian] 10/2/2003 13:33

"Mr Peter Simon, the Company's Executive Chairman, has today notified the Company
that, with effect from 8 February 2003, upon the youngest beneficiary of a
family settlement becoming 18 years old, he is no longer interested in
16,234,944 ordinary shares of £0.10 each in the share capital of the Company
(representing approximately 9.12 per cent. of the Company's existing issued
share capital)"

.............oh to be 18 again, eh?!

Regards, Ian

[miked500] 08/2/2003 20:21

from todays's times Monsoon added 3¼p to 99½p amid speculation that Peter Simon, its founder, chairman and 72.7 per cent owner, is considering taking the fashion retailer private. Analysts say a bid for Monsoon, which reported an 11 per cent rise in like-for-like sales over Christmas, could be easily financed by Mr Simon through bank debt.
from today's guardian Among, the small caps, Monsoon gained 3.5p to 99.5p on talk, played down by sources close to the retailer, that founder and chairman Peter Simon is considering making an offer for the 27.3% of the company he does not own.

[jonny walker] 04/2/2003 08:20

Monsoon - Falls on poor New year sales

[idioterna] 13/1/2003 08:10

These results look pretty good, but it would certainly have helped the share price if there'd been a more optimistic outlook for 2003. Still looking for £1.20 today though. I'll hold for the dividend unless the price approaches £1.40.

[idioterna] 13/1/2003 07:44

LONDON (AFX) - Monsoon PLC posted record first half pretax profits and said
like-for-like sales in the four weeks to Dec 21 2002 rose 2 pct, with total
sales up 7 pct.
In the two weeks to Jan 4, like-for-like sales were ahead by 11 pct,
compared with a rise of 45 pct last year, with total sales 24 pct higher.
The company also announced today group finance director Andrew May will
resign to "devote more time to his other interests". He will stay in his role
for the next six months.
For the six months ended Nov 23 2002, pretax profits before exceptionals
rose 14 pct to 18.5 mln stg from 16.3 mln, on sales up 8 pct to 107.7 mln stg
from 99.5 mln. Earnings per share were up 13 pct at 7.06 pence from 6.27 pence.
After exceptionals, pretax profits were 17.7 mln stg, up 9 pct from 16.3
mln, with EPS rising 5 pct to 6.60 pence from 6.27 pence.
The board proposed an unchanged interim dividend of 1.5 pence.
During the period, 20 more stores and one concession opened in the UK and a
new flagship store in Knightsbridge opened December 2002.
A further 20030 international stores is expected to open in the second half.
Commenting on the results, chairman Peter Simon said: "These results
underline our ability to increase profits under more difficult trading
conditions.
"Although we face the prospect of more challenging market conditions on the
High Street, the group is in good shape and our brands, products and focused
strategy both in the UK and overseas give us confidence in the future."
[e-mail]
shw

[idioterna] 10/1/2003 00:40

I sold out at 92 last year (having bought in at 64 on 9-12). Recently re-purchased at 96 with a target of 120 and expect the same dividend as last year or a slight increase. Like you, feel that the low p/e and good dividend policy make this a secure retail play for the next few years (barring anymore unpleasant forays into on-line rubbish). I've also held FCCN in the same sector for a long time.

[msjhaffey] 10/1/2003 00:19

Yes, last year I did quite well from Monsoon with the price jump and dividend. I don't expect to do as well this year but at the current price I think they're a good buy and in fact I got in at 97 this time. PE ratios on Next Matalan etc are so much higher so even if the price heads south again I'm hoping for the div to make up the difference or more.

[msjhaffey] 09/1/2003 16:23

Ah, but will you then stay for the dividend?

[idioterna] 09/1/2003 15:21

A 12% rise so far today, bodes well for results. Reckon I'll get £1.20 by tomorrow evening.

[idioterna] 09/1/2003 11:41

msjhaffey, I don't know what date the ex-divi day will be this year, but they'll tell us on monday. Last year the interim dividend amout was announced Jan 21st and it went ex on March 20th. You effectively had 2 months to make your mind up, but the price rose 40% in that time.

[msjhaffey] 09/1/2003 10:27

I expect a reasonable dividend from Monsoon (no special info, just a gut feeling). So what I would like to know is the date I need to be holding the shares to get the dividend. Can anyone help?

[idioterna] 06/1/2003 16:30

Lots of heavy buying towards the close today. Looks like sales doing well.

[idioterna] 06/1/2003 10:52

Looks like this could see £1.20 by interims next week. If those come with a cheery note I'm hoping for a revisit to £1.40.

[idioterna] 04/1/2003 00:14

Somebody must be picking up Nexts' customers and they can't all be going to Marks and Spencers. I'm betting on Monsoon and French Connection.

[miavoce] 03/1/2003 20:39

Sale is going well.

[jeffian] 03/1/2003 20:29

...........and New Look, of course!

Regards, Ian

[msjhaffey] 24/12/2002 10:58

I sold out at a similar price but bought in again at 97 so I'm sitting on a small loss. However, whenever I walk by a Monsoon/Accessorize they seem to have good numbers of customers and friends and family (not to mention my son's girlfriend) continue to shop there so I'll hang on for the dividend.

[goliard] 15/11/2002 10:01

I got a bit bored waiting for something to happen here so sold out for an ok profit at 117p. Still think there is great potential.

Miavoice... wheres your info from?