Lpa Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 15/4/2015 17:30

Well, in my view, they have now appointed a good broker !

[envirovision] 15/4/2015 16:44

New broker because their unfortunate choice of previous broker was a dud, they went bust lol

[hastings] 02/4/2015 11:07

Hi Stuart, I will post something here as soon as I hear anything. I guess they will announce who they are going with first, which may not be that long.

[stewy_18] 02/4/2015 07:29

I think you are probably right CT and the market seems to think so so that is good news. However, Revenues have been going backwards for 3 years £18.4, £17.6 and £16.8 in 2012, 2013 and 2014 respectively.

That's not a blip. We have no idea what they will be for this year.

I must agree though patience is the only virtue an investor needs. I watch from the sidelines with interest.

Can anyone let me know when the new broker note is released?

Best

Stuart

[castleford tiger] 01/4/2015 18:52

Hastings know its good value. This year is a blip.

80p today for a few that's up 20p from the low.

tiger

[hastings] 31/3/2015 08:48

Nice to see a little bit of Director buying after last week.

[castleford tiger] 27/3/2015 19:05

Thanks Hastings.

stewy
not sure when you came in but my first lump was around 32p.
Like you I get involved with the company in the networking world.
All I hear is good things for LPA.
We would be chicken feed for a bigger company and I am afraid that's the way it might go.
for now the story remains if a little delayed.
You cannot trade these shares you buy and hold because they are hard to buy.
Anything over 2000 shares and you pay over market price.
To get to xxxxxx shares takes a long time.
Yes the first half will be poor and maybe 4 or 5p for the full year but at least 1 possibly much more next time.
#
I remain a very firm holder. ( and buyer on weakness)

Tiger

[olliemagern] 27/3/2015 18:42

Hastings, thanks for your post and the time you spent on it.

[stewy_18] 27/3/2015 13:13

Yes, it only needs a small slice of the £35 billion Network rail spend to make a huge impact. I was expecting 2014 to be the year, having been invested since 2012. That didn't happen and it doesn't look like it will this year either, but sentiment will change before the contracts come in.

I learnt 3 things here.

- Don't get emotionally involved with a share (in my case negatively). Try and base everything on facts. The order book looks good, but I will need more before information before I invest here again.

- Don't talk to management (although I am grateful for Hastings feedback above:)) . I'm more and more convinced this got me into trouble. Why should we talk to management? Everything should be clearly laid out in results and brokers notes. It is very easy to imply and insinuate things in a private mail or in a meeting. It is what is in the RNS that counts. This has got me in trouble in the past on more than one occasion.

- I'm in no rush to get back in. Yes, the share price may rise, but I'm convinced there will be more buying opportunities, especially after the interims. You could argue that they are an RNS away from a mega contract. I would argue that if something mega was on the horizon, they would have spoke about it in the analyst meeting. I think the possibility is there, but they are not there yet.

I think this company has good products and I don't think it is a million miles away from taking off. But it looks like my calculations were two years out. I was expecting 20+ million revenues by 2015. By 2017? Who knows. I will be watching from the sidelines for now.

Best of luck.

Stuart

[callumross] 27/3/2015 12:55

Nice article Hastings - many thanks.

[dozey3] 27/3/2015 12:29

Not sure there will be anything on the website. Company visits are not allowed to include any additional information of a price sensitive nature, though of course you could argue that is not possible.
For what it's worth (not much), I take a bullish stance. True they have recently disappointed by being over optimistic, but one hopes that is a lesson learnt. They are 100% dependent on customer schedules, and it does look as if the railway side is beginning to come good. Furthermore the distractions of property sales and upgrading premises in Saffran Walden, and closing th Clacton factory are behind it. That could mean better margins going forward in tandem with gearing.

[hastings] 27/3/2015 12:26

Thoughts from yesterday that may be of interest.

[stewy_18] 26/3/2015 19:31

Still no presentation up on the website

[hastings] 26/3/2015 16:43

Got back around an hour ago, very enjoyable and informative.
Will write some comment up tomorrow for those interested in my thoughts, but suffice to say from a personal investment perspective I am happy to hold.

Cheers
H

[stewy_18] 26/3/2015 14:07

Yes CT. Profits of £4 million a year would lead to a rerate. Revenues of around £22-£24 million should do it. Not going to do it this year and revenues going backwards (see above). Looking forward to get feedback from todays metting to get a feeling if that is possible.

[castleford tiger] 26/3/2015 12:53

2017/2018 SHARE PRICE STARTS WITH A 5 based on profits of 4 million a year.

see what comes out of todays meeting.

tiger

[masurenguy] 26/3/2015 10:47

Well I would imagine that there could be some feedback from Hastings tomorrow, following his attendance at todays AGM.

[stewy_18] 26/3/2015 10:37

Hi Masurenguy, I'm not sure if patience comes into it. Take a look at last years March trading statement:-

2014
I am pleased to report that in the three months ended 28th February, order entry exceeded £6m, an annual running rate of £24m

2015
In total our current order book approximates to £27m

2014
"After the quiet start, we will be playing catch up for the rest of the year, becoming increasingly busy as the year progresses and in to future years.

2015
As expected the year will be one of two very different halves, with the first half proving difficult and the second half showing recovery.

The rhetoric is almost identical. IMO the order book figure is completely useless. They need a new broker and fast, otherwise it is uninvestable for me. How can you invest in something where you have no idea what the revenues will be?

Revenues for 2012, 2013 and 1014 were £18.4, £17.6 and £16.8 respectively.

If I got the feeling (either via a brokers note or feedback from the meeting) that they could do somewhere around £20 million revenues(in the next 3 years) I'd be back in like a shot, because with operational gearing, this would multi-bag. But it looks like this years revenues will be like last year (IMO).

They sure sound confident, but they were also confident last year. I reckon they might have something up their sleeve. Why have the analyst meeting otherwise??

I await feedback with interest.

[masurenguy] 26/3/2015 09:13

Nice and positive trading update this morning !

"Including today's announcement, order entry for the year to date totals about £15m, excluding the £8.6m of Inter City Express Programme mentioned above and approximately £2m on two civilian aerospace programmes, for which we have been selected, but for which we do not have detailed delivery schedules. In total our current order book approximates to £27m. The growth in our order book, coupled with the significant investment we have made and will be making in our manufacturing facilities and the rationalisation programme now coming to completion, should deliver an extremely strong business for the foreseeable future."

This indicates the longer term potential here for patient investors while recognising that a fairly pedestrian current year performance could cause the shareprice to drift back down during quiet periods. They have drawn down the whole of their £2m term loan and still have about £1m headroom on their overdraft facility so, subject to cashflow, there is still a potential risk of a dilutive placing to shore up the balance sheet and fund their forward order pipeline. We'll have to see how this years trading impacts their financial position.

[meijiman] 26/3/2015 09:02

Yes Hume went out of business. My view is that the company would not do the company visit without having a decent story so maybe worth trying to get a flavour
of that. The disappointment here is relative in the sense that the the share price went too much based on what was realistically deliverable. Could see these at 85p.

[stewy_18] 26/3/2015 08:13

Thanks for clarifying Hastings. Market likes the update so that is good news. Will be interesting to hear the feedback.

all the best

Stuart

[hastings] 26/3/2015 08:09

Should be interesting visiting today, hopefully grab a word with someone from the major holders.Stuart, the LPA Broker has ceased business, so not the company's fault it is without at present. Perhaps that will be rectified quickly.

[hastings] 25/3/2015 08:01

Anyone else attending the AGM Thursday.