Lpa Share Discussion Threads

[stewy_18] 22/1/2015 15:24

Absolute disaster. I mailed 6 months Peter Pollock 6 months ago and he reaffirmed his in line expectations and also sounded very confident about the future. It was quite a miss. I will be very surprised if they can do anything near £18 million this year, let alone £20 million I was hoping for.

So much for my share pick for 2015. It now looks a terrible company if I am being honest. Sold out at a reasonable loss having averaged my buy around 72 p.

All this confidence they speak about won't make up for the lost quarter.

Here are a few things I leant after todays statement:-

- Try and look for the downside. Upside will take care of itself. Limit downside exposure as much as you can.
- Try to pick a company with proven management.
- Reoccuring revenues cannot be understated. LPA are always going to be a contract away from a profit warning IMO.

Can't see anything happening here this year. Last year they implied and order run rate of £24 million, which is why I was getting excited. That converted to £16 million sales this year. So they have £18 million order book this year. I can't get excited about that. They could just as well pull out a profit warning here as an upgrade. No clarity on earnings, just a lot of bullish management statements. Well, we had that last year with the £24 million run rate RNS.

It is another lesson not to interpret bullish emails from management also. Everything should be clearly documented in brokers notes or RNS's. That was another mistake I made. I am coming round to the idea that contacting management is a big mistake (just my opinion), because you get sucked in.

I feel sorry for anyone that needs to exit in size. Medium to long term, LPA may do very well. It might not. This came as a bit of a shock to me to be honest. I was certain that this year was going to be the breakthrough year. Hey ho. You live any learn.

If something drastic changes, I may look to get back in (shareprice drops irrationally or other news), but the operational gearing that I was looking for will most certainly not happen this year.

I think the gradual shareprice decline may well have been a friends and family exit.

Not for me.

Best

Stuart

[muffster] 22/1/2015 10:28

Sold, poor value here. See this at below 30p with only 295 pre tax profits.
Should have sold earlier.

[envirovision] 22/1/2015 10:09

meant to add would not be surprised to see shareprice at 50p at stage later in year.

[castleford tiger] 22/1/2015 09:10

Confusing and not the best report I have read.

The excp items are getting silly its every time.

tiger

[metier9] 22/1/2015 08:36

Ermmm what was that all about?

[castleford tiger] 19/1/2015 18:31

360 ? where have you got that figure from?

Second half is normally double first so that's circa 400 k giving us 560/580 k

There may be exc items but we have just about used up[ all excuses on them.
Current year should be 1 million maybe a tadge more.

I do agree that orders/ sales its very confusing. Like you I will ask them the question.
tiger

[muffster] 19/1/2015 13:47

Thanks S, wait and see then til Outlook statement.

[metier9] 18/1/2015 17:36

The last proper broker forecast was from 2011 and the current one is from Hume Capital (?) which most websites don't even list. Appears to not have been updated in a while at a guess.

[muffster] 18/1/2015 10:28

Have been watching my holding fall. Just doing some research and wondering whether to stay or sell up. Seems that pre tax profits are likely to be £360,000? Puts this on a high multiple, given £10. Million market cap. Any thoughts?

[castleford tiger] 16/1/2015 09:54

We little holders are sniffed at.
closing in on 3% then things will have to change.

Tiger

[stewy_18] 15/1/2015 12:48

I think we are all hoping for somewhere close to £24 million in a couple of years time olliemagern. They should really stop using order book numbers in their RNS's. I spoke to Peter Pollock this year about not using order run rate because it was confusing. He didn't seem to think so. Results won't set the world alight at the end of Jan, so the outlook statement should tell us a lot more. Operational gearing will make quite a difference here, so if we get above £20 million, I'd expect the EPS figure to be 10-15 pence a share. The problems with rail franchising should be behind us and the move is complete, so I would expect a robust year in 2015.

Here's hoping.

Best

Stuart

[meijiman] 15/1/2015 12:07

company needs to be more on the front foot -not hidden away. Assume numbers end of this month -difficult to comment further really. I just hope the growth story is still in place!

[meijiman] 13/1/2015 12:37

Prelims must be end Jan. Can't find any date on the co website -does anyone have a date?

[castleford tiger] 10/12/2014 17:55

buying again. Dribs and drabs.

Tiger

[stewy_18] 10/12/2014 07:12

I don't think there will be any surprises in the final results, but the outlook statement will tell us all we need. If they can do £24 million revenues in 2015, I think operational gearing will kick in and it could get very interesting. They were alluding to that in a few trading statements last year, but that was just the order book figures. I'm hoping with the rail franchising sorted, there will be a lot more orders. Will also be interested to see how the LED part of the business is growing. Hopefully with the move out of the way the business will be able to operate at full capacity.

Heres hoping.

[castleford tiger] 09/12/2014 17:48

moved against the market today.

I THINK we will see a serious move up in 2015.

Its my TIP OF THE YEAR.

Tiger

[metier9] 28/11/2014 16:56

Managed to get 5k worth. Job done.

[envirovision] 28/11/2014 09:02

They do love to maintain a thin market, you'll get used to it.

[envirovision] 18/11/2014 08:12

Also tucked away in my sip.

[nickjoseph] 14/11/2014 11:11

Purchased a couple of small top ups this morning and it moves and two further 5k + buys. Good for us though . looking for growth from Hong Kong and good production from new facilities . Still believe this is medium term and in my SIPP. Can't touch for another 2 1/2 years so no rush on this one. Have over 50k shares myself.