Lpa Share Discussion Threads

[stewy_18] 27/6/2014 09:36

Hi Hastings,

Not sure if you are privatepunter or not. A good article and I agree with most of it except :-

The LPA board are also from my experience, a pretty conservative bunch to say the least and I do get the feeling rightly or wrongly that they are more than just a touch confident at present.

I don't really see the "under promise over deliver strategy" when they mention a yealy order rate of £24 million and then come out with these interims.

I have mailed the company to ask for clarification regarding this point.

The way they have been talking I really think they need to hit £20 million revenues for year end to support this shareprice. The predicted diluted EPS of 6.5p does not warrant the high P/E ratio the company is currently on as it doesn't show that kind of growth.

I am not looking to exit just for the record. The next 3 years should prove very profitable for LPA. I am questioning the wisdom of putting out a trading statement which mentions an annual order rate of £24 million.

Does anyone konw if there has been a revision in forecasts after the interims? The phone numbers on the last LPA XCAP brokers note are no longer valid :(

Best

Stuart

[hastings] 26/6/2014 22:31

A few thoughts that may be of interest, looking to expand further.

[jolomo] 26/6/2014 20:09

Got to agree with your comments Stuart.

Order entry in H1 £9.36m (2013: £7.33m), so very strong but first 3 months order entry was £6m, so significant tail off.

Think the last trading statement was poorly worded. Interims not much better. Order book + additional contracts look good but when are these to be delivered?

[stewy_18] 26/6/2014 09:51

Not sure what to make of this.

I thought the last trading statement was too good to be true.

This statement from Michael Rusch in that previous trading update RNS now starts to look a bit optimistic/misleading :- I am pleased to report that in the three months ended 28th February, order entry exceeded £6m, an annual running rate of £24m

Even with the unbooked £7 million from the Intercity Express Programme and £2.5 from the two Aerospace programmes they will get nowhere near the £24 million implied. That would mean they would have to do £16 million in the second half. Or maybe I'm mixing order entries with revenues?

I think they have failed to manage expectations here. If they hadn't mentioned a £24 million run rate in that last trading update these figures would have been ok IMO.

I was expecting a lot more than £8 million revenues off the back of the trading statement. So what can we expect for year end? Brokers have revenues flat for this year.

I would be disappointed with that.

I'd want to see at least 10 eps for year end and to do that they will probably have to break £20 million revenues implying £12 million for H2. It will have to be an outstanding H2 to achieve this. Any one got the latest brokers notes?

No need to panic, but a big H2 needed. As always comment welcome.

Best

Stuart

[someuwin] 26/6/2014 07:36

26 June 2014

LPA GROUP PLC

Half-Yearly Report for the six months to 31 March 2014

LPA Group PLC ("LPA" or "the Group"), the LED lighting and electro-mechanical system manufacturer and distributor, announces its results for the six months to 31 March 2014, and a number of significant new orders.

KEY POINTS

-- Revenue: GBP7.97m (2013: GBP8.65m)
-- Profit before tax: GBP186,000 (2013 restated: GBP176,000)
-- Diluted earnings per share: 1.32p (2013 restated: 1.25p)
-- Interim dividend: 0.70p (2013: 0.60p)
-- 27.7% increase in order entry in the first half
-- LED lighting letter of intent from French Railways, previously advised at AGM, confirmed as an order worth GBP1.4m

-- Electro-mechanical ethernet backbone technology exciting great interest
-- Transport+ wins GBP0.4m orders possibly signalling end to hiatus caused by delayed franchising

-- Group well placed to benefit from buoyant UK rail sector and in export markets
-- Shire Hill refurbishment almost complete, move planned for July, rationalisation to follow
Michael Rusch, Chairman, comments:

"In my statement at the Annual General Meeting I commented that we had received a letter of intent for the supply of GBP1.2m of LED based lighting for a double deck high speed train for French Railways. I am pleased to report that the order has now been received at a higher value of GBP1.4m.

"In addition we have been awarded a contract for GBP0.3m to supply additional 'classic' lighting for an extension to a project in Hong Kong.

"Significantly during the last two months Transport+ has secured two contracts totalling GBP0.4m, which may signal the end of the refurbishment order hiatus caused by the delay in refranchising.

"We have yet to book approximately GBP7.0m of the Intercity Express Programme and around GBP2.5m in respect of two Aerospace programmes for which we have been selected.

"We expect to close the year with an order book at record high levels.

"After the quiet start of which I previously advised, we are playing 'catch up', but despite lower output in the opening period we have managed to show slightly improved profits and earnings per share providing a sound base for the rest of this year and next. The longer term is beginning to look strong.

"The interim dividend has been increased by 0.1p to 0.7p.

"The refurbishment of our facility at Shire Hill, to be known as 'Light and Power House', is almost complete and we expect to move during July and provide vacant possession of Tudor Works by the end of August, triggering payment of the balance of the basic consideration. Depending on the success of the housing development there may be additional sums due in the future.

"Thereafter we will move on to completing the reorganisation of our electro-mechanical business and commencing the extension of our lighting facility in Yorkshire.

"We look forward to an increasingly bright future."

26 June 2014

[envirovision] 24/6/2014 16:29

Taken a few

[stewy_18] 24/6/2014 13:41

Half yearly report should be out soon. Something leaked or just a bad day?

[gucci] 10/6/2014 13:45

added today

[olliemagern] 06/6/2014 00:23

last two years the results were out on the 27th of june.
my best guess, half year pre tax £0.15m, eps around 1p. Much better to come in a couple of years.

[castleford tiger] 30/5/2014 15:04

nibbled another 15k this week.

tiger

[loobrush] 30/5/2014 10:50

Well I hope you are right in buying, I am waiting for results first, they have a lot going on, moving factory etc which may take time to settle things. anyone know when results are due

[loobrush] 30/5/2014 10:39

Well I hope you are right in buying, I am waiting for results first, they have a lot going on, moving factory etc which may take time to settle things. anyone know when results are due

[nickjoseph] 30/5/2014 10:07

Just purchased two more lots of shares but showing as sells

[someuwin] 01/5/2014 09:56

Good tactic CT.

[castleford tiger] 01/5/2014 08:56

I am back in to mop up another 50k today at this level.
Tiger

[someuwin] 30/4/2014 16:03

MM fishing for stock?

[someuwin] 30/4/2014 15:39

LOL - having just checked, the max online buy quote is still only 150 shares (£194)

[someuwin] 30/4/2014 15:31

Just keep buying is the answer.

This is a quality company that WILL benefit from the planned rail and infrastructure projects coming online.

[loobrush] 30/4/2014 15:19

I think that in this market it may well go lower unfortunately.

[someuwin] 30/4/2014 15:09

Yes, no problem for me. I've got these in my SIPP. £5 target in a couple of years.

[stewy_18] 30/4/2014 15:05

General tailing off of small caps I'm afraid. Everything was getting a bit hot. However, any new before the half yearly results would be warmly welcomed.

[someuwin] 30/4/2014 14:38

OK, I think that's dropped far enough now.

[someuwin] 25/4/2014 11:07

Buyers picking up stock while its available.

[meijiman] 25/4/2014 10:31

bit of profit taking by the look of it. no bad thing is the scheme of things.shares will regain momentum on order news flow.

[someuwin] 24/4/2014 20:37

Good point Stuart. I've now added a link to the old thread in the header.