Iqgeo Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 09/5/2024 00:10

DoubleVerify (a different market) is what happens when growth stumbles. They forecast 22% growth and now took that back to 17% for 2024 (still very reasonable) down 35% today!!!

IQGEO high valuation (has been justified imho) is based on the revenue growth metric and any sign that stumbles will be punished even if the bottom line grows. The proxy for revenue growth is contract wins. Extended periods without news on new wins might be taken as a move to a different stage of development from revenue growth etc. Once that crown slips its hard to put it back on.

Ideally this is a pullback in the generally upward trend but the volume today (1.76x the 3 month daily average) and the double top look may be indicative.

I hold, haven't sold, am happy to be realistic about what I see unfolding especially as the headcount and costs increase - lots of new heads.

Lets hope management have a firm hand on it all and the quiet period is through choosing to not release much news and not due to slowing of growth. I don't know which it is but err on the optimistic side.

[boadicea] 08/5/2024 23:56

Generally a good story with apparent potential but the chart looks dangerous/toppy and the rating assumes a high marginal profit rate can be squeezed from the turnover.
The case for it looks to me to assume easy scalabilty and sufficient breadth of demand.
It needs a trading update to accompany the AGM to keep me interested.

[p1nkfish] 08/5/2024 16:23

I'm thinking any news is post AGM on 15th and before June 30th.
A bit of a record of no contract news.

May account for someone getting bored, or they think this is a one trick Fiber pony with little Grid where the real money is, or overvalued with better opportunities elsewhere. Also look a little double toppy recently.

Will give some a reason to exit and other the chance to join.
Only problem comes if this is thought of as having reached terminal growth.
If they trip up IQGEO will be punished, that's the problem with growth.

[w13ken] 08/5/2024 15:22

Unusual drop today so have bought some shares in Trading at 410p. Not expecting a bad news story and hope that we'll get a positive RNS soon.

[p1nkfish] 08/5/2024 09:48

May 7th -

Next week AGM and has now been 4 months since any RNS related to a contract.

[p1nkfish] 02/5/2024 15:22

News can't be far off. May 8th will be about 4 months since the last announcement of a contract. Since around 2020 that has only happened once before - I think it was Oct 2022-Feb 2023, memory may be flaky.

Given the changes to the product, its reach, sales quota carrying headcount increases etc, I don't believe there is less activity than in the past nor that all the big contracts have been announced/won, especially in Grid.

The negotiation period for larger contracts from first intro to signing to first sales is no doubt long but I suspect IQGEO also have some discretion as to when they announce.

AGM 15th May, H1 closes June 30th.

[w13ken] 02/5/2024 12:38

First interview I've seen with IQGeo's new CTO, David Cottingham, talking about the importance of high-quality data, Machine Learning (MI) and Artificial Intelligence (AI). He seems to bring a lot of straight-talking energy to the role 👍.

[p1nkfish] 30/4/2024 15:28

Now we know who was reducing, price held up very well and last week the volume occurred at a higher price than the peak price the week before.

[w13ken] 26/4/2024 17:55

When they issue Sales RNSs they are always for $1m+. We can be confident that other deals are coming in too.

Very happy with 400p+ share price as we've got the best part of 3 months until the Interim TU. I'll take some in Trading if it drops below 400p again but I'm keeping the long-term faith with 1/3 of the ISA in IQG.

Jan 24: $2.5m - Top 10 US Telecom (new)
Dec 23: $5.4m - Tier 1 US Telecom (extension)
Dec 23: $3m - Tier 1 US Telecom (new)
Sep 23: €8.6m - Tier 1 European Broadband operator (new)
Sep 23: $1.9m - Top 5 Global Fibre operator (extension)

[p1nkfish] 26/4/2024 17:48

Even bigger day - more than £2.4M gone though at 420p.
Someone has cleared out, probably expect RNS??

The other 2x £840K approx were reported late but took place AM today.

Someone wants out, someone wants in.
All at above last weeks 416p high.

[p1nkfish] 26/4/2024 17:40

The other interesting point is that the previous 3 weeks ended down but at lower volume each week than this week, that ended up, and each was lower volume than the previous two weeks (before the 3 down) that were also up weeks.

See what we get between now and end of H1.

There has been a quiet news period and I don't believe there hasn't been decent sales activity.

[p1nkfish] 26/4/2024 17:10

What an interesting day.
200K at 420p reported after hours, £840K.
The 200K at 420p was above last weeks high of 416p so the candle has been confirmed by volume and not a low volume close that just happens to be above 416p.

The daily candle looks very positive and this weekly engulfs last week and the week before and is a reversal after 3 down weeks. I may be wrong but it looks positive to me.

Might it be as a consequence of the recent webinar or some news due. After hours reported,could it be out of the US?

[horseyphil] 24/4/2024 09:10

Would agree with that Ken, as Warpaint has so many followers. Technology company of the year would be a nice win though.

[w13ken] 24/4/2024 08:42

I saw the fastest growing list (IQGeo #90) and noticed it was based on pretty old results. We can expect a higher position next year.

I hadn't seen the Small Cap awards though so good spot pf. Interesting, and it has a prestigious panel. IQGeo are up for Technology of the Year and Company of the Year. My odds are good on the letter category as I own shares in 3 of the 5 nominees: IQGeo, Kitwave & Warpaint 😀.

All are having a storming year:
IQG: +33%
KITW: +37%
W7L: +29%

I expect Warpaint would be a better bet for Company of the Year but hope IQGeo win the Tech award

[p1nkfish] 24/4/2024 01:30

Nominated for company of the year:
Result 13th June.

Also in 100 fastest growing:

[p1nkfish] 22/4/2024 22:24

Vast majority of this needs GIS and field workforce connectivity during connection and maintainence. Easy to understand there can be a scramble for capabilities.

[p1nkfish] 22/4/2024 21:48

Page 56 of the annual report.
Average Weighted Option Price.

Petti = 67.9p, total of 2,060,000 with 310,000 left to vest
Chapman = 94.8p, total of 850,000, 203,334 left to vest
Taylor = 46p, total of 121,000, all vested

Two year holding period post vest date and they vest as 1/3 on 1st, 2nd and 3rd date of grant.

2023, total of 1,637,392 options were issued with 250,000 to Petti and Chapman and 1,3871,392 to other employees. Other employees, over time, able to sell without notifying the market.

2023 dilutive potential of shares was of the order of 4,229,000, approximately 6.85%.
Will change year by year.

If management want to sell any now I don't see them getting much above 380p per, possibly lower, even down towards 350p. There's bound to be a time when they will want to cash-out.

Obviously, cashing out on a sale of the company, or at a higher price due to strength of the business, is best for everyone but given the CFO sale last year there might be some dilution and a message to the market at any time.

[p1nkfish] 21/4/2024 17:23

Forgot to add - the volume was between about 374p-376p as a strong hint there is a buy-zone at 370p-376p approx. The buyers would probably have bought with a margin of safety too.

[p1nkfish] 20/4/2024 08:38

Noticed another late trade reported on the 19th but made on the 18th. Sizeable.

91.5K shares for £343.37k.

So 171K shares reported yesterday, a day late, for £644K total. Dwarfs all the other transaction noise and may have helped take some other stop losses out. The buyer is unlikely to be looking for just a 10% upside.

Probably just coincidence but transacted the same day Bentley mentioned being approached and transaction not only reported a day late but appears to have happened after hours if you can believe the timings.

[p1nkfish] 19/4/2024 17:02

Just have to wait. This period will shake-out the easily bored.

[gswredland] 19/4/2024 16:26

That's some trade.Hopefully on the way back up

[p1nkfish] 19/4/2024 16:18

Late reported trade on the 18th reported today.
80K traded at 376p for £300.8K.

[p1nkfish] 19/4/2024 08:12

If memory serves me correctly, I read somewhere that Siemens have an option to acquire Bentley if Bentley are approached by a 3rd party?

[mighunter] 19/4/2024 07:35

Schneider confirms talks with Bentley Systems across Bloomberg