Firstgroup Share Discussion Threads

[robertfaulkner] 23/3/2015 19:39

Great post Dealy, market liked your post, up 4p 4.2% at the close.

Keep posting

[dealy] 19/3/2015 15:20

UK institutional investors (if there are any left) are notoriously impatient. The mantra "it hasn't gone up so get rid of it and get into something that is going up" is applied constantly. No patience.

That's what i think is going on. Not an underlying business performance issue - just a lack of investor patience isssue. Things like this can change.

[pyueck] 19/3/2015 13:25

Just to add my two pennies. The rail business is in my opinion way overrated by analysts. Rail only provides about 18% of profits from last year.

The contracts awarded are undoubtedly lower margin than in the previous round.

Yes winning them at a good price would have been nice, but winning them at a bad one would be worse.

I also hope that the group is not planning to announce anything nasty at next months results which will explain the recent falls. I think US snow will definitely be a negative impact.

Clearly investors are losing patience with the group, I guess with no dividend this share relies on people believing the recovery story.

The results recently have actually been OK, with the normal line of we are 'on track'. On track to where though...time will tell?

[scotches] 19/3/2015 12:47

A rail/bus operator seems an attractive business as the UK population continues to rise. However First Group is saddled with debts from acquisitions. It has also been losing a succession of home contracts - how did it lose Scotrail?


From FT in December good article summing up some of the issues "FirstGroup attempts to turn corner after difficult six months" - title in google will jump paywall.

Joe Spooner, analyst at Jefferies, says the chances FirstGroup would fare so badly in the bidding process was just 10 per cent. But the fact that it is rare for so many licences to come up at once means it will be tough for the group to recoup the lost business quickly. “Such a slate of concentrated and good opportunity won’t repeat,” he adds. “We expect rebuilding the rail portfolio to be a slow grind from here.”
With FirstGroup having lost some 70 per cent of its value in the past four years, some analysts are surprised that investors continue to be supportive of management.

[bu5boy] 19/3/2015 12:32

I dont belive this share is being overlooked..far from it! the weight of debt,the loss off rail work to help service that debt,then add to that the risk the pension hitting the buffers in 2018 not a rosey picture forming.A bad day of market falls could see this go below 90p soon.DYOR.

[dealy] 19/3/2015 09:18

bottomfisher,

i have often asked myself the same question but i am reasonably confident that the sole reason underlying the share price weakness is the lack of institutional interest in the shares. The mid cap sector in the UK is not favoured by institutions at present who seem intent on buying zero yielding government bonds or mega cap stocks. Balfour Beatty languished late last year despite a string of positive announcments (including generating nearly 1 billion pounds in proceeds from selling its US business) and i asked myself the same question. But in a few weeks the stock rose 50%. It was just "overlooked".

I believe the same case applies here.

[bottomfisher] 19/3/2015 09:14

How much of FGP's prolonged share price weakness is due to political uncertainty in run-up to UK General Election in May, and how much is due to concerns about the long-term sustainability of its business? I hope that it is primarily the former that is depressing the share price, but am concerned that there might be something else underneath FGP's business "bonnet" that is not working. Would welcome any thoughts.

[slaterlpj] 18/3/2015 17:20

Not looked in for a while.

When was the Divi supposed to be brought back?

[pyueck] 17/3/2015 11:09

In the Uk I think firstgroups service has improved dramatically in recent years.

[salpara111] 16/3/2015 14:21

Well, without a divi the share price has no real support.
I was nearly going to buy at £1 but decided to wait and see if the 90 level was retested and it would appear that my decision was right for once!

[bu5boy] 16/3/2015 08:34

Check out the pension black hole,that maybe why share price is where it is.

[pyueck] 13/3/2015 18:19

The last few results have been decent too.

I am guessing there will be some damage over the winter due to the snow in the USA.

This stock is hated by the market, let's just hope at some time transport companies will be more in favour.

[dealy] 13/3/2015 17:58

depresses me as well. Uk economy and US economy are recovering. Interest rates are low. Markets are strong. Fuel costs are plummeting.

And the stock sits at an all time low. Makes no sense.

[pyueck] 13/3/2015 15:23

Ha blueball, this stock makes me depressed, seriously.

[ih_434834] 12/3/2015 17:03

Plenty of support @90p.

[dealy] 26/2/2015 18:40

It is basically impossible to find a stock that has underperformed the FTSE worse in the last 4 weeks than this one. I believe that is the opportunity. A rising tide normally lifts all boats and plenty of other boats have been lifted i can assure you. The low volumes here point to the fact that the stock is over-looked. That can change quickly - unless there is something that we don't know about it.

I expect a big catch up move here in the next few weeks -up to 120p which is where we were in 4Q2014.

[tonytaxi] 20/2/2015 16:42

20% increase in passenger numbers in Bristol...not sure over what period but good news anyway. !!!

From company web site.. Bristol Bus .. Travel News .. News and initiatives
18/02/15

To improve the punctuality and reliability of its bus services and cope with the circa 20% increase in the number of people using Bristol's buses, operator First West of England is rescheduling many of its services and introducing some changes to its local network from 29 March. This will mean putting additional buses into service and recruiting more staff to drive them.

[fox you] 15/2/2015 12:05

I have watched this share for a few months and nearly bought around the 120p. What I have noted last few weeks is the resistance at/around 99p and ending the day 100p or just above.
In your views, what will happen once share price ends the day below 100p?

Reason I have not gambled with this co the the USA side of the co which I dont really understand other than it does not like nice.

Thanks in advance friends

ATB

Fox You

[blueball] 12/2/2015 08:36

Still falling on a daily basis.

[blueball] 29/1/2015 14:34

You are clearly insane but respect to you.