Firstgroup Share Discussion Threads

[hyden] 28/12/2014 22:19

Robert, fuel prices are hedged for some time to come (from the 5th Nov Half Yearly Report):

"The Group uses a progressive forward hedging programme to manage commodity
risk. In the current year in the UK, 93% of the "at risk" crude requirements
(2.2m barrels p.a.) are hedged at an average rate of $101 per barrel. We have
hedged 90% of our "at risk" UK crude requirements for the year to 31 March 2016
at $98 per barrel and 34% of our requirements for the year to 31 March 2017 at
$97 per barrel.

In North America 78% of current year "at risk" crude oil volumes (1.5m barrels
p.a.) are hedged at an average rate of $90 per barrel. We have hedged 67% of
the volumes for the year to 31 March 2016 at $87 per barrel and 27% of our
volumes for the year to 31 March 2017 at $86 per barrel."

[napracc] 17/12/2014 14:53

Goldman Sachs expects them to deliver strong earnings growth and has just issued a Buy recommendation, might be worth a flutter at these levels.

[dealy] 17/12/2014 13:37

This looks like capitulation. Same for so many small and mid cap stocks that are trading at multi year lows. there is just no interest from the investment community unless the companies pay dividends.

[robertfaulkner] 15/12/2014 10:01

You would think that the much lower fuel prices and talk of them being lower for years would shoot up the share price of FGP

I know they hedge the prices but they must start hedging at much lower prices for the future

Or does the Gov just lower the subsidy to travel operators so FGP won't gain much

[robertfaulkner] 09/12/2014 13:24

In the end if one wheelchair is already in position, the driver has to leave the waiting wheelchair user at the bus stop anyway

[robertfaulkner] 09/12/2014 13:20

I agree Hyden, perhaps the driver would be instructed to phone for police and wait for the police to arrive

Can you imagine, in the middle of nowhere trying to get a moby signal

[hyden] 08/12/2014 21:21

Court judgement found in favour of FGP re: bus drivers not required to ensure able-bodied customers vacate space designed for disabled passengers. Lawyers are now seeking leave to appeal to the supreme court so it's not over yet.

I must admit that I feel for the bus drivers in this situation. After all, If an inconsiderate passenger refuses to budge then what can the bus driver do, except refuse to drive the bus unless and until the inconsiderate person comes to their senses? Perhaps other irate passengers may then force the issue solving the driver's problem. ;-)

[albo] 08/12/2014 18:08

Any particular reason for the rise today?

[robertfaulkner] 08/12/2014 12:21

Nice rise today??????

[robertfaulkner] 07/12/2014 10:05

Are there anymore train franchises coming up for tender, in near future?

FGP must be given Buggins turn in the end because the Gov won't want all it's eggs in on basket

[dealy] 06/12/2014 08:17

The bigger issue here is that the stock market is currently only favouring mega cap blue chip companies. All other companies are just being ignored (not bought by pension funds, not bought by hedge funds, not bought by private investors).

If we get a rotation in the new year away (a shift of some capital from fully valued mega caps and bonds to laggards) then companies like First Group should see a lift. M&A will probably also take off next year.

[robertfaulkner] 05/12/2014 10:10

I thought the only 2.5%.( 3.5% expected) increase in train fares, by the government, announced today would lower FGP SP

Maybe it was in the price

[gordon697] 04/12/2014 20:56

Much of their fuel costs are hedged in advance.

[robertfaulkner] 03/12/2014 16:24

Why is lower fuel prices not good for FGP, is it that motorists will start driving instead of buying bus and train tickets

[robertfaulkner] 02/12/2014 09:10

Hi Cautious, I bought my full allocation in the rights issue and was going to reduce around 148p, which looked possible on the rise in early Nov.

Now stuffed again, I'll have to wait for some good news(it has to happen eventually)

My ave is 121p

[cautious7] 01/12/2014 17:16

Yes that was really good.

[robertfaulkner] 27/11/2014 09:10

Up a bit now after being down below 100p at 8am

[robertfaulkner] 27/11/2014 07:06

Oh dear, FGP don't get East coast, it goes to Stagecoach/Virgin

Is this in the price or will we see another big drop at 8am?

[robertfaulkner] 26/11/2014 17:13

Thanks guys, obviously the leasing costs will be massively more when the fleet is renewed

Is the deal, the franchise that wants the least subsidy wins (provided the gov believes it can really carry out the massive operation)

[sharedgain] 25/11/2014 18:11

Robert,
The vast majority of Rolling Stock is owned by the key ROSCOs of Angel Trains, Eversholt Rail Group and Porterbrook Leasing. Franchised train operators lease the stock from them, albeit with direction from the DfT over which fleets will be available for each franchise. When there is a change in franchise owner, the new franchisee takes up the hire contract.
In the longer term all of East Coast's fleet will be replaced by a new IEP fleet, which the DfT has contracted Hitachi to build. These trains will replace the country's High Speed Trains (IC 125) fleet, and East Coast's IC 225 fleet.
Hope this helps.
SG

[pyueck] 25/11/2014 16:44

Robert, each franchise has a separate operating company, the assets and liabilities of this company are transferred to the new owner if a franchise is transferred. Each franchise agreement has its own terms, but generally the costs of financing the assets transferred will transfer to the new operator along with the assets. A good example of an asset that transfers is the pro rated cash paid by customers relating to season tickets.

[robertfaulkner] 25/11/2014 15:43

What happens to the rolling stock of rail franchisee losing a route, do they get something from the rail company taking over?

[pyueck] 24/11/2014 16:25

The rail franchises are all being won by companies making very competitive bids. From what I hear it is good Firstgroup lost these franchises rather than take them on at the deals being agreed.

Of course the best would have been for Firstgroup to win all four franchises with deals that guarantee big profits. However the risk/reward of these franchises don't stack up in imho and are well worth losing.

Yes the share price falls today, but the reality is that the profits of firstgroup do not come from rail, but comes from FirstStudent and FirstTransit. The recent results from this have been positive and eventually the UK media and investors must get less focused on the trains part of firstgroup, which is really a small in terms of profit part of the business.

[soi] 24/11/2014 14:22

crazy I know but bought some at 107.7 and opened a SB long at 107.5