Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Firstgroup Plc LSE:FGP London Ordinary Share GB0003452173 ORD 5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.40 -0.49% 82.00 82.00 82.05 83.25 81.70 82.90 3,370,608 16:29:36
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Travel & Leisure 7,754.6 -299.6 -27.0 - 1,002

Firstgroup Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3851 to 3873 of 4500 messages
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Just don't understand why there is no interest in this stock and why it is basically at an all time low. They are in a utility type business in two countries that are seeing decent GDP growth. No reason why this should not be trading at 20 times normalised earnings with interest rates so low.
Edit: But of course the CapEx requirement will fall substantially from 2018 as the transformation plan completes leaving more than enough cash to pay down debt and reinstate dividends. Indeed, one could argue a case for a high risk buy as, should the company act prudently, then there will plenty of cash (c. 33% mcap) to pay dividends from FY2025 onwards. So, sit patiently on your hands for 10 years and you will be rewarded with a share price north of 500p and a dividend in the region of 7%. And this is without the benefit of higher fuel prices or improving margins. Perhaps this is where Goldman are coming from. After all they haven't specified a time period have they. ;-) Let's not make exaggerated share price claims but instead await the FY results and an update on the Group's plans / intentions. :-)
Sanks, The reference to CityLink is a gross over exaggeration as I am sure you well know. ;-) Whilst net debt is very high, the first repayment does not fall due until 2018 (c. £298m) and annually thereafter through to 2024 (2023 excluded). If FGP do not reinstate the dividend and if margins improve in line with management expectations (either as a result of the transformation plan or through lower fuel prices over the longer term) then there will be sufficient funds to meet the first repayment, at least. However, I am less certain about the repayments due 2019 onwards which may need to be re-financed in part or otherwise another Rights Issue is on the cards. Accepted, there is a big IF in my analysis: improving margins through the transformation plan or longer term lower fuel prices but this explains why the share price is 106p and not 306p, for example. It does not justify 6p and for your target to be borne out then it implies that margins will deteriorate significantly. There is, imho, no evidence of this at present and I don't believe that even the loss of all rail franchises, for example, would be enough to cause the sort of problems that you imply. Having said this, I did sell just over half of my holding ahead of the new year chimes because I don't think that it is prudent for FGP to reinstate the dividend for FY2014 (Rights Issue Prospectus: "dividend payments will recommence with a … transitional final dividend of up to £50 million in FY2014 … and thereafter, a dividend cover of 2.0-2.5x [Will] be targeted.”). I do not know what the Board intend so I have acted cautiously and I will review my position further when the FY results are announced.
I remain a shagger on FGp with a buy target at 5p & 7p respectively Debt kills unless it is given complete this case, it is not! City Link comes to mind...hence why i remain in a shaggers stance. Sensible comments appreciated Sanksalot
Hyden, thanks for the info on the fuel hedging. 3.5m barrels at 30 USD reduction amounts to over 100m USD improvement to the bottom line annually. It won't fall through to earnings much in 2015 or 16 but from 2017 on the impact could be substantial. Company hedges are probably the reason oil stayed so high for so long (self fulfilling prophecy) and why they haven't bounced yet (companies have already bought).
I am concerned for my holding in FGP and I am thinking of selling out at a loss. From the Rights Issue prospectus: “Over the next four years, the Board intends to invest approximately £1.6 billion in its divisions to continue funding the operational transformation plans already underway ...” and “… it is expected that approximately £340 million will be invested in the group's businesses before 31 March 2014 and the remainder over the period between 31 March 2014 and 31 March 2017.” Now, from the Half Year cash flow statement, Cap Ex to 31.03.14 was £334.5m, in line with what was stated. A further £268.5m was invested in the half year to 30.09.14 leaving a further £997m requirement over the next two and a half years. The Board will not have an easy task funding this commitment “ … from the Group's existing cash resources, future cash generated from operations, and a portion of the proceeds of the Rights Issue” (Rights Issue prospectus) given that cash generated by operations for the 12 months to 30.09.14 was only £409.4m (net of interest and tax). This implies a cash conversion ratio of almost 100% which is possible (the ratio was 95% to 30.09.14) but leaves no room for error. So, this explains why the share price is as low as it is but what is the potential upside from here? I am not at all sure that the dividend will be reinstated any time soon nor that the Group will be able to pay down debt. I now understand why Sanks feels able to make such exaggerated share price targets. A further Rights Issue is not out of the question, imo. What do others think and where does Goldman Sachs expect the strong earnings growth to come from? Certainly not from the low oil price, that's for sure!
Robert, fuel prices are hedged for some time to come (from the 5th Nov Half Yearly Report): "The Group uses a progressive forward hedging programme to manage commodity risk. In the current year in the UK, 93% of the "at risk" crude requirements (2.2m barrels p.a.) are hedged at an average rate of $101 per barrel. We have hedged 90% of our "at risk" UK crude requirements for the year to 31 March 2016 at $98 per barrel and 34% of our requirements for the year to 31 March 2017 at $97 per barrel. In North America 78% of current year "at risk" crude oil volumes (1.5m barrels p.a.) are hedged at an average rate of $90 per barrel. We have hedged 67% of the volumes for the year to 31 March 2016 at $87 per barrel and 27% of our volumes for the year to 31 March 2017 at $86 per barrel."
Goldman Sachs expects them to deliver strong earnings growth and has just issued a Buy recommendation, might be worth a flutter at these levels.
This looks like capitulation. Same for so many small and mid cap stocks that are trading at multi year lows. there is just no interest from the investment community unless the companies pay dividends.
You would think that the much lower fuel prices and talk of them being lower for years would shoot up the share price of FGP I know they hedge the prices but they must start hedging at much lower prices for the future Or does the Gov just lower the subsidy to travel operators so FGP won't gain much
In the end if one wheelchair is already in position, the driver has to leave the waiting wheelchair user at the bus stop anyway
I agree Hyden, perhaps the driver would be instructed to phone for police and wait for the police to arrive Can you imagine, in the middle of nowhere trying to get a moby signal
Court judgement found in favour of FGP re: bus drivers not required to ensure able-bodied customers vacate space designed for disabled passengers. Lawyers are now seeking leave to appeal to the supreme court so it's not over yet. I must admit that I feel for the bus drivers in this situation. After all, If an inconsiderate passenger refuses to budge then what can the bus driver do, except refuse to drive the bus unless and until the inconsiderate person comes to their senses? Perhaps other irate passengers may then force the issue solving the driver's problem. ;-)
Any particular reason for the rise today?
Nice rise today??????
Are there anymore train franchises coming up for tender, in near future? FGP must be given Buggins turn in the end because the Gov won't want all it's eggs in on basket
The bigger issue here is that the stock market is currently only favouring mega cap blue chip companies. All other companies are just being ignored (not bought by pension funds, not bought by hedge funds, not bought by private investors). If we get a rotation in the new year away (a shift of some capital from fully valued mega caps and bonds to laggards) then companies like First Group should see a lift. M&A will probably also take off next year.
I thought the only 2.5%.( 3.5% expected) increase in train fares, by the government, announced today would lower FGP SP Maybe it was in the price
Much of their fuel costs are hedged in advance.
Why is lower fuel prices not good for FGP, is it that motorists will start driving instead of buying bus and train tickets
Hi Cautious, I bought my full allocation in the rights issue and was going to reduce around 148p, which looked possible on the rise in early Nov. Now stuffed again, I'll have to wait for some good news(it has to happen eventually) My ave is 121p
Yes that was really good.
Up a bit now after being down below 100p at 8am
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